Week 12 of Thursday Night Football features an AFC matchup between Buffalo and Houston.
SBR's Gary Pearson previews the action in his Bills vs Texans Prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Game prediction: Texans +6 (-110 via BetMGM)
"While the Texans will miss Stroud, Davis Mills has performed admirably in his absence, winning both starts. As long as Mills doesn't turn the ball over at an alarming rate, Houston's defense should take care of the rest.
In five games this season at NRG Stadium, Houston has won three of five. Its two losses, to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos, were by a combined four points.
Their defense is the primary reason, ranking best in EPA per play and third-best in DVOA. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke's unit allows the fewest points per game (16.4) and the sixth-fewest at home (16.4). It also concedes the fewest yards per game (258.1).
Last season, the Texans were one of the few teams to successfully frustrate MVP odds contender Josh Allen, who arguably had his worst game.
While I expect one of the league's most clutch QBs to be more productive than his 131 passing and five rushing yards from that 23-20 loss, I'm putting my money on Houston's relentless stop unit keeping it competitive."
Best prop bet: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114 via DraftKings)
"Houston's defense doesn't pressure or hurry the quarterback as often as teams like Minnesota. Then again, who does? However, it does a masterful job in coverage and in negating downfield options, allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4).
And it has the third-best unit at stopping the run, according to DVOA.
With the prospective lack of options at Allen's disposal, I expect him to take matters into his own legs. Houston has been susceptible, particularly late in games, to preventing the opposing quarterback from taking off. It allowed at least 33 rushing yards to the opposing quarterback in the previous three games, which Allen will be well aware of.
He hit the Over on this total in five games thus far, including last week against Tampa Bay."
Bills vs. Texans best odds
Bills vs. Texans betting trends
SBR's Gary Pearson previews the action in his Bills vs Texans Prediction:
Over/Under pick: Under 43.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
Game prediction: Texans +6 (-110 via BetMGM)
"While the Texans will miss Stroud, Davis Mills has performed admirably in his absence, winning both starts. As long as Mills doesn't turn the ball over at an alarming rate, Houston's defense should take care of the rest.
In five games this season at NRG Stadium, Houston has won three of five. Its two losses, to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos, were by a combined four points.
Their defense is the primary reason, ranking best in EPA per play and third-best in DVOA. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke's unit allows the fewest points per game (16.4) and the sixth-fewest at home (16.4). It also concedes the fewest yards per game (258.1).
Last season, the Texans were one of the few teams to successfully frustrate MVP odds contender Josh Allen, who arguably had his worst game.
While I expect one of the league's most clutch QBs to be more productive than his 131 passing and five rushing yards from that 23-20 loss, I'm putting my money on Houston's relentless stop unit keeping it competitive."
Best prop bet: Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-114 via DraftKings)
"Houston's defense doesn't pressure or hurry the quarterback as often as teams like Minnesota. Then again, who does? However, it does a masterful job in coverage and in negating downfield options, allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.4).
And it has the third-best unit at stopping the run, according to DVOA.
With the prospective lack of options at Allen's disposal, I expect him to take matters into his own legs. Houston has been susceptible, particularly late in games, to preventing the opposing quarterback from taking off. It allowed at least 33 rushing yards to the opposing quarterback in the previous three games, which Allen will be well aware of.
He hit the Over on this total in five games thus far, including last week against Tampa Bay."
Bills vs. Texans best odds
Bills vs. Texans betting trends