Monday Night Football: Cardinals vs Cowboys Picks and Betting Splits

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 4925

    #1
    Monday Night Football: Cardinals vs Cowboys Picks and Betting Splits
    Week 9 of Monday Night Football features a NFC matchup between Arizona and Dallas at 8:15 PM ET on ABC/ESPN.

    SBR's Gary Pearson offers his best bets in his Cardinals vs Cowboys prediction:

    Over/Under pick: Over 53.5 (-105 via FanDuel)

    Game prediction: Cowboys -3 (-115 via BetMGM)

    "Kyler Murray not starting is fortuitous news for the Cowboys, as the Cardinals' No. 1 quarterback is 9-0 at AT&T Stadium (including college and high school). While stand-in QB Jacoby Brissett has played well in Murray's absence, he doesn't offer the same dual-threat ability. That's exquisite news for a Dallas team with the second-worst defensive DVOA ranking.

    The Cardinals are 0-1 on the road with Brissett under center and 1-2 overall, with their only win in Week 1 against a poor New Orleans Saints team.

    The Cowboys, meanwhile, are undefeated at home (2-0-1) and are notably superior at AT&T Stadium, where they tied the Green Bay Packers, who are among the Super Bowl odds contenders.

    I also feel the lopsided loss in Denver will help Dallas, particularly Dak Prescott, who endured his worst outing of the season. Prescott, who has the highest ranking in our Clutch Factor power rankings for QBs with a losing record, will be focused on having a bounce-back game.

    Irrespective of Dallas' poor defense, I give the home team the edge due to its palpable advantage under center.​"​

    Best prop bet: Jake Ferguson Over 39.5 receiving yards (-110 via BetMGM) ​

    "While the Cardinals have the 12th-best defensive pass DVOA, Nick Rallis' unit allows the fourth-most yards to opposing tight ends, with an average of 68.71 per game. Ferguson hasn't hit the Over on this total in three games and was completely absent from the passing attack in Denver, with one target and no receptions.

    However, with this favorable matchup, I expect him to get back to being an integral component of Prescott's aerial attack. In the Cardinals' last game, Green Bay's Tucker Kraft had 58 receiving yards on five receptions.

    Ferguson hit the Over in two of three home games, averaging 49 yards. He also hit the Over in two of the Cowboys' three wins, and despite amassing only 29 receiving yards in the previous home game against Washington, he caught two TD passes.​"

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  • SBR Andy
    Administrator
    • 02-09-22
    • 4925

    #2
    SBR's Mike Spector has his best Cardinals vs Cowboys MNF player prop bets ready to go:

    Trey McBride Over 67.5 receiving yards (-111 via DraftKings)

    "I wanted to back the Over on Trey McBride’s receptions but the Over on his 6.5 receptions was juiced too high at -155 and a 60.78% implied probability.

    Therefore, I am opting for a better return with the Cardinals tight end’s receiving yards prop.

    McBride hauled in 10 receptions on a whopping 13 targets in the game before the bye. He should have a clear path to 68-plus receiving yards against a Cowboys defense that has allowed over 400 total yards four times this season."


    Dak Prescott Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+170 via BetMGM)

    "The +170 payout for this wager at BetMGM makes it an intriguing part of my best Cardinals vs. Cowboys MNF player props, as I get to back a quarterback that leads the NFL in Total QBR (80) and is among the most clutch QBs.

    Prescott will likely again have to make up for a porous Cowboys defense that allows 31.3 points per game.

    Dallas is the first team in NFL history to score 40 or more points in each of its first three home games to begin a season. And that is another sign of how bad the defense is, as the Cowboys are the first team to average at least 30 points per game but have a negative point differential through the first eight games."


    Zonovan Knight to score a touchdown (+145 via bet365) ​

    "Zonovan “Bam” Knight has led Arizona’s running backs in touches and snaps in back-to-back games. The team clearly trusts in his potential, as they released Michael Carter to carve out a bigger role for Knight in the backfield.

    Knight has played nearly 50% of the snaps and has seen more than 50% of the team’s rushing attempts over the last two games, which paid off with a score in two of the previous three. He faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed 10 total touchdowns to running backs this season.​"
    Comment
    • JAKEPEAVY21
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 03-11-11
      • 29420

      #3
      I need 13 points from McBride for fantasy football so I'm pretty certain he will be invisible tonight
      Comment
      • SBR Andy
        Administrator
        • 02-09-22
        • 4925

        #4
        SBR's Esten McLaren shares his MNF anytime touchdown scorer predictions:

        Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (+125 via Caesars)

        "After scoring six touchdowns and garnering 26 targets over the course of a four-week sample, Jake Ferguson was inexplicably targeted just once in last week's 44-24 road loss to the Denver Broncos despite a consistent snap count. It's fair to expect the Cowboys' game plan to return to what had been working well with Dallas favored by 3 points at home and an Over/Under that calls for about seven touchdowns to be scored tonight.

        This is a very favorable matchup for this anytime touchdown scorer prediction. The Cardinals have held wide receivers to just three touchdowns and a 62.2% catch rate through seven games, but tight ends catch 77.9% of their targets and have scored an equal three touchdowns."


        Michael Wilson, WR, Cardinals (+260 via FanDuel)

        "Jacoby Brissett will draw another start for the Cardinals tonight, and that should benefit Michael Wilson. The third-year receiver caught seven of nine targets for 84 yards over the last two games. Though he hasn't scored since Week 2 - with Kyler Murray under center - I have him with better than the 28.17% chance of returning to the end zone that these +255 odds imply.

        The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 15 touchdowns to wide receivers through eight games, with a 69.6% catch rate and an average of 9.99 yards per target.​"


        Michael Carter, RB, Cardinals (+280 via FanDuel) ​

        "The Cardinals are still waiting for Trey Benson's return (he's eligible next week) and will use Bam Knight as their starter tonight against the Cowboys, according to head coach Jonathan Gannon. However, Michael Carter and Emari Demercado are expected to play a role alongside Knight, who has significantly lower +135 odds to score tonight.

        I'm attracted to Carter's work in the Cards' passing game. His 12 targets through four games are the most of the team's available running backs. He secured nine of those looks for 77 yards.

        The Cowboys have held running backs to a respectable seven touchdowns on the ground but an additional three through the passing game, along with an 80.4% catch rate.​"

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        • SBR Andy
          Administrator
          • 02-09-22
          • 4925

          #5
          Updated Cowboys-Cardinals betting at BetMGM:

          Most bet player props ️
          1. Michael Wilson over 2.5 receptions -118
          2. George Pickens over 64.5 receiving yards -110
          3. Marvin Harrison over 58.5 receiving yards -115
          4. Javonte Williams under 2.5 receptions +100
          5. Bam Knight under 12.5 rushing attempts -118

          Most bet anytime TD ️
          1. Trey McBride +115
          2. Javonte Williams -175
          3. Jake Ferguson +130
          4. CeeDee Lamb -105
          5. George Pickens +130

          Most bet 1st TD ️
          1. CeeDee Lamb +700
          2. Jake Ferguson +1000
          3. Javonte Williams +500
          4. Trey McBride +900
          5. George Pickens +900

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          • SBR Andy
            Administrator
            • 02-09-22
            • 4925

            #6
            Monday Night Football betting insights from DraftKings:

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