MNF 10 PM - Texans vs Seahawks Prediction

[SBR Andy]

The second game of the Week 7 Monday Night Football double-header sees 2-3 Houston travel to 4-2 Seattle at 10:00 PM ET on ESPN. SBR's Phil Wood breaks down the action in his Texans vs Seahawks prediction:

Over/Under pick: Under 41 (-107 via Caesars)

"The Texans will win this game because of their defense. They rank third in yards allowed per game, but more importantly for this matchup, they rank fifth in pass defense. The Seahawks rank fifth in pass offense, but considering the Texans have shut down Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield, and Trevor Lawrence, they’re more than capable of slowing down Sam Darnold."

Spread prediction: Texans +3 (-104 via FanDuel)

"The Texans have held all five of their opponents to 20 points or fewer, as they’re allowing a league-best 12.2 points per game. In the two weeks heading into their bye week, they outscored their opponents 70-10 to pick up their first wins.

The Seahawks enter this game averaging 252.2 passing yards per game. However, they’ve yet to face a top-10 passing defense, but they have faced two bottom-10 units. The Texans are allowing just 175.2 passing yards per game, holding every quarterback they’ve faced to 250 yards or fewer.

Darnold has topped 250 yards three times, including last week when he threw for 295 yards against the Jaguars. However, the Seahawks only scored 20 points in that game.

The Texans have gained at least 350 yards in back-to-back contests. CJ Stroud has thrown for at least 230 yards in both games, and he has six touchdowns and zero interceptions. Stroud will continue his solid play against the league’s 10th-worst pass defense."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Mike Spector has his best Texans vs Seahawks player prop bets for MNF ready to go:

C.J. Stroud Under 21.5 completions (-122 via DraftKings)

"Seattle is coming off a game where it sacked Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence seven times, while holding Jacksonville to season lows in points (12), yards (273), and rushing yards (59). Its elite pass rush is a big reason the secondary ranks in the top four in DVOA on defense, and the top half of the league in passer rating, pass EPA, and yards per attempt allowed.

Houston is not likely to sustain many long drives, as the Seahawks rank in the top two in yards per rush and yards per rush after contact. In fact, its 3.3 yards per rush allowed is on pace to set a franchise record. While that could have Houston airing it out more often, it also gives Seattle an advantage facing a one-dimensional offense."


Zach Charbonnet Under 40.5 rushing yards (-118 via BetMGM)

"Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet has received the bulk of the rushing duties (57%) in the two games that both he and Kenneth Walker III have been healthy. But Charbonnet is more of a short-yardage and goal-line back, as evidenced by his 2.6 yards per carry average, and he only has one explosive run of 10-plus yards this season.

Houston is likely to bottle up the prodding Charbonnet this week, as it ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards and explosive run rate allowed to running backs."


Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD scorer (+140 via DraftKings)

"Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a great value play as an anytime touchdown scorer, as he leads all receivers in target and air yard share. He is four yards away from 700 despite seeing fewer than 55 targets, and the only other player to accrue that many yards on that few targets was Isaac Bruce.

On throws of 20-plus air yards, Smith-Njigba has 11 receptions and 402 yards, and the yardage is 100 more than any other player. He has 16 catches for 294 yards and two touchdowns over the last two games. And considering Houston has allowed just one passing touchdown to tight ends, that adds more value for a Seattle wide receiver to find pay dirt."