MNF 7 PM - Buccaneers vs Lions Prediction

[SBR Andy]

The first game of the Week 7 Monday Night Football double-header features 4-2 Detroit hosting 5-1 Tamp Bay at 7:00 PM ET on ABC/ESPN. SBR's Gary Pearson shares his best bets in his Buccaneers vs Lions prediction:

Spread prediction: Lions -5.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

"The Lions defeated the Chicago Bears 52-21 at home in the game after their previous defeat on the road. While I'm in no way comparing the Bears to the Buccaneers, Detroit saves some of its best stuff for bounce-back opportunities. The Lions have won 11 straight after suffering a defeat dating back to 2022. I'm also counting on the Lions at home to make the most of the Buccaneers' injuries."

Over/Under pick: Over 52.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

"Dan Campbell's team have scored at least 31 points in eight of the last nine games at Ford Field dating back to last season, averaging 40. That staggering total is accompanied by a 32-point-per-game average in the previous 11 games following a defeat.

Both teams are among the top eight in offensive DVOA, with Detroit fifth and Tampa Bay eighth, while the Lions score the second-most points per game (31.8) and the Buccaneers the sixth most (27.5).

In addition, the Lions will be without starting cornerback Terrion Arnold and starting safety Kerby Joseph, which should make life tangibly more straightforward for Baker Mayfield, who won't have running back Bucky Irving or wide receiver Mike Evans at his disposal. If we know anything through six weeks, it's that Mayfield, the league's most clutch QB entering Week 7, will score points no matter who is in or out of the lineup.

The Buccaneers' defense allows the ninth-most points per game (25.2), and the Lions concede 23.7, ranked 18th."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Phil Wood shares his best Buccaneers vs Lions player prop bets for MNF:

Mike Evans Over 63.5 receiving yards (-112 via DraftKings)

"Evans hasn’t played since Week 3, and he’s yet to top 56 yards in a game this season. However, with the Lions’ entire starting secondary out, Evans returns for a juicy matchup in what should be a high-scoring game, as betting sites are giving it a 53-point projected total. Evans has logged four-plus catches in each of his outings this season.

The Lions are only allowing 212.7 passing yards per game. But Patrick Mahomes threw for 257 yards against them last week, and that's when Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch were healthy, and both will miss this contest. With so many injuries, don’t be surprised if Evans gets near the eight catches for 147 yards that he notched in the 2023 playoff meeting between the two teams."


David Montgomery Over 10.5 rushing attempts (-120 via BetMGM)

"Montgomery registered his fewest rushing attempts since 2022 last week while running the ball just four times. Meanwhile, his teammate Jahmyr Gibbs recorded 17 carries. It was only the second time this season that Gibbs recorded seven-plus more carries than Montgomery.

Yet I love this prop, even going into a tough matchup against the NFL’s fifth-ranked rush defense, as Montgomery has run the ball 11-plus times in four of six games this season. The Lions are averaging 29.2 rushing attempts per game, tied for sixth-most leaguewide. Even last week, in a bad matchup when they were trailing, the Lions ran 23 times while throwing just 29."


Cade Otton anytime TD scorer (+175 via bet365)

"Otton has caught nine passes for 132 yards in his last two games after a quiet start to the season. He's logged at least 51 yards in back-to-back contests, and Otton now faces a defense allowing over 50 yards per game to tight ends.

While Otton’s Over is a tempting play, there’s more value in taking him to score against a defense that's already allowed three touchdowns to the position this year. The Lions have given up 13 passing touchdowns overall across six games, the sixth-worst mark leaguewide. And while Otton hasn’t scored this season, he's tallied four touchdowns in each of the last two years. This is one of the best Buccaneers vs. Lions player props ahead of a game that's expected to be high-scoring."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Esten McLaren has a couple Buccaneers vs Lions TD bets as part of his MNF anytime Touchdown scorer picks:

Baker Mayfield, QB, Buccaneers (+600)

"Baker Mayfield, formerly cast off by the Cleveland Browns and Carolina Panthers, is squarely in the NFL MVP odds conversation as a top contender through six weeks. He now has the chance to make a statement to fans and voters under the lights of Monday Night Football against the Lions, who are top contenders by the latest Super Bowl odds.

'Helping' Mayfield to make his MVP case will be the Buccaneers' continued absence of running back Bucky Irving and a banged-up wide receiver room, which includes Chris Godwin not playing tonight. Mayfield is yet to rush for a touchdown this season, but he had three scores on the ground last year.

Our Gary Pearson expects this to be a high-scoring game with his Buccaneers vs. Lions prediction, and that should open the door even more for some theatrics from Mayfield."


Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions, (+175)

"Sam LaPorta has scored in back-to-back games after being held out of the end zone through four weeks. He also caught five of six targets in both games and has had a long catch of 26 or more yards in four of six games this season. Who are we to walk away from a heater?

The Buccaneers have allowed opposing tight ends to catch 82.5% of their targets and to score four touchdowns through six games. They do a much better job of guarding receivers, so I expect Lions QB Jared Goff to lean into the better matchup and get LaPorta a touchdown in a third straight game."