TNF Week 6: Eagles vs Giants Predictions

SBR Andy · 10-08-25, 07:46 AM

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the matchup in his Eagles vs Giants prediction:

Over/Under pick: Over 40.5 (-115 via FanDuel)

Game pick: Eagles -7 (-118 via DraftKings)

"Since Monday, the total dropped from 42.5 to 40.5, making the margin on the Over/Under too razor-thin for my liking.

In my early Eagles vs. Giants prediction, I said I wouldn't play the Under if the total dropped below 41.5. So, it's on to taking the Eagles by a converted score, only offered at DraftKings.

Other betting sites have the Eagles at -7.5, a minor yet decisive difference. The Jaxson Dart-led Giants failed to score a single point in the Big Easy after the two-minute mark of the second quarter against a New Orleans Saints team with the fourth-worst defensive DVOA.

Turnovers played a major part, with Dart throwing two picks and the team committing three fumbles. While I doubt another handful of turnovers is forthcoming, the Giants have the fourth-worst turnover margin (minus-1.7) in the last three games. They're also the most penalized team (83 yards per game).

That number probably won't decrease substantially with a fresh-faced rookie under center.

The Eagles, meanwhile, have yet to win by more than seven points. The collective will be hell-bent on proving a point this week after imploding late against the Denver Broncos.

And so too will Barkley, who will be salivating at the prospect of facing a Giants team with easily the worst defensive rushing DVOA."

Player prop bet: Saquon Barkley Over 85.5 rushing yards (-111 via bet365)

"Five weeks through the season, and we're still awaiting a breakout Barkley performance. He hit the Over on this total just once, amassing 88 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs.

But when the opportunity arises, we - and Barkley - will take it. And there's no better opportunity than against his former team, who discarded him like a putrid bag of garbage.

In the corresponding game last season, Barkley had a monstrous outing, running for 176 yards on 17 attempts. I'll be happy with half that total.

The Giants have the worst run defense, via DVOA, and it's not even close. The G-Men are allowing the fourth-most yards per attempt (5.3), and have the third-worst defensive EPA per run.

If things go according to plan, Barkley should get a ton of work in the fourth quarter when the Eagles want to chew up as much game clock as possible."

SBR Andy · 10-09-25, 09:19 AM

Eagles vs Giants player prop bets from SBR's Matt Jacob:

Jalen Hurts to score anytime TD (-120 via bet365)

"I’m riding an extremely strong trend with this particular Thursday Night Football player prop. No, that trend isn’t directly tied to the fact that Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has an NFL-high 56 rushing touchdowns since the start of the 2021 season. Rather, it’s tied to the fact that Hurts didn’t score two weeks ago against Tampa Bay or last week against Denver.

Here’s the relevance: Hurts hasn’t recorded three straight scoreless games in the same regular season since Weeks 6, 7 and 9 of the 2022 campaign (Philly had a Week 8 bye). Since then, Hurts has logged 44 starts, including three at MetLife Stadium. He scored in two of those contests (including notching a pair of TDs last year)."

Jaxson Dart Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"I haven’t been all that impressed with Jaxson Dart’s arm in his first two NFL starts (although, in fairness, the Giants’ coaches haven’t taken his training wheels off yet). However, I’ve been quite impressed with the rookie QB’s mobility. Dart churned out a total of 98 yards on 17 rushes against the Chargers and Saints.

Playing behind a below-average offensive line — and against a fierce Eagles pass rush — I expect Dart to flee the pocket a lot Thursday night. I also expect New York to design a handful of quarterback runs, especially given Philadelphia’s struggles to contain opposing QBs (104 rushing yards on just 13 carries)."

Dallas Goedert Under 34.5 receiving yards (-110 via Caesars)

"Back in Week 2, Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson torched New York’s secondary for 78 yards. Then again, Ferguson has been torching a bunch of defenses, as he leads Dallas with 41 catches and ranks second with 272 yards. Why mention Ferguson in the context of this Thursday Night Football player prop on the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert? Because Ferguson is the only tight end who has excelled against the Giants.

New York has otherwise shut down Washington’s Zach Ertz (26 yards), Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (26 yards), the Chargers’ Oronde Gadsden and Tyler Conklin (combined 19 yards), and New Orleans’ Juwan Johnson (17 yards). So I like the Giants’ chances to contain Goedert, who had just 19 yards in last week’s loss to Denver."

SBR Andy · 10-09-25, 02:25 PM

Thursday Night Football anytime touchdown scorer predictions from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Cam Skattebo, RB, Giants (+160 via FanDuel)

"Rookie running back Cam Skattebo had his first NFL fumble last week in the Giants' loss to the New Orleans Saints. With fellow running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. injured, Skattebo still played 68% of the offensive snaps and turned 21 touches (15 rushes, six receptions) into 104 yards from scrimmage.

Though the game script is far from ideal with the Giants as a 7-point underdog, the low Over/Under suggest a ground-heavy game plan for both teams. Skattebo should also be used to help take the pressure off rookie QB Jaxson Dart in his first prime-time start in the NFL.

For all their strengths, the Eagles allow running backs to average 4.36 yards per carry and 7.59 yards per target, with five total touchdowns allowed to the position."

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (+260 via DraftKings)

"I don't understand these odds at all for DeVonta Smith to score tonight.

Though he has only one touchdown this season, he caught eight of 10 targets for 114 yards a week ago in a much tougher matchup against the Broncos. He's played at least 91% of the offensive snaps in three straight weeks, and the Giants allow wide receivers to catch 65.5% of their targets for an 8.18-yard average with five touchdowns allowed to the position.

Additionally, Smith leads Eagles receivers with four red-zone targets. He's caught three and scored his one touchdown inside the opponents' 20-yard line."

A.J. Dillon, RB, Eagles (+1000 via FanDuel) 

"We're taking a long shot with this final anytime touchdown scorer prediction for Thursday Night Football.

Dillon played 14% and 15% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks, respectively. Though he totaled five carries for 29 yards, the Eagles are likely to deploy a run-heavy attack on a cold night in New Jersey, and starter Saquon Barkley - whom Gary Pearson expects to have a big game with his Eagles vs. Giants prediction - could see some rest in the second half given the 7-point spread.

New York has allowed running backs to average 5.61 yards per carry and 5.34 yards per target on an 82.8% catch rate."