TNF Week 5: 49ers vs Rams Predictions

SBR Andy · 10-01-25, 09:40 AM

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the action in his 49ers vs Rams prediction:

Rams -5.5 (-122 FanDuel)

"I hope you followed my against-the-spread pick in our 49ers vs. Rams early prediction, as that -3 spread is long gone. The uncertainty surrounding several key injured 49ers, including wide receivers Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, and QB Brock Purdy, has increased the spread to -5.5 or -6.5.

Based on various reports, the general sentiment is that Jennings will play, with Purdy and Pearsall likely losing the race against time. If that comes to fruition, I'm comfortable with the Rams winning by at least six.

If not, I'm happy backing the Under on the 46.5-point total.

A presumed Mac Jones-led offense devoid of tight end George Kittle, possibly Pearsall and Jennings, won't cause any sleepless nights for a Rams defense that has the eighth-best EPA per play.

With Jones at the helm, the 49ers' offense struggled to produce against an average Arizona Cardinals defense, scoring their only touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Jones isn't far removed from a recent knee injury, providing more reason to back the Rams. On the opposing side, Rams QB Matthew Stafford will look forward to facing a 49ers defense that doesn't have Nick Bosa at its disposal."

Kyren Williams Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-111 DraftKings)

"Such is the uncertainty surrounding who will or won't play, there are currently no 49ers' receiver props available at sports betting apps. Keep your eye on that market in the lead-up to kickoff, as running back Christian McCaffrey should receive an increased target share in the passing game.

Of course, the extent of which depends on Pearsall and Jennings' participation. So, it's on to Kyren Williams, who I expect to be a focal point of the Rams offense to an even higher degree than usual.

The Rams will want to control the clock and tempo. I believe Los Angeles will be protecting a decent lead in the fourth quarter, creating ripe conditions for an increased number of carries. He hit the Over on this total in three of four games, averaging 17 carries."

SBR Andy · 2025-10-02T13:47:26+00:00

49ers vs Rams player prop bets from SBR's Matt Jacob:

Puka Nacua Over 95.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel)

"How dominant has Puka Nacua been to start the season? The Rams wideout has eight more receptions and 101 more yards than any other NFL receiver. His per-game yardage output since Week 1 is 130, 91, 112 and 170 yards. Nacua also recorded double-digit receptions three times.

San Francisco’s defense has been solid against the pass so far, allowing 165 yards per game (sixth-best in the NFL). The Niners shut down Jacksonville’s Brian Thomas Jr. (49 yards) and Arizona’s Marvin Harrison Jr. (44 yards). But they also got shredded by Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who had 124 yards in the opener. San Francisco has also watched Nacua rack up 97 and 147 receiving yards in two of three career meetings."

Christian McCaffrey Under 61.5 rushing yards (-111 via DraftKings)

"Christian McCaffrey’s rushing production continues to drop each week. The versatile 49ers running back had 69 yards against Seattle, then 55 at New Orleans, 52 against Arizona, and finally 49 versus Jacksonville last week. Three of those opponents - the Jags, Seahawks, and Cardinals - field top-eight rushing defenses. The Rams? They rank 10th.

Only two running backs have had ground success against Los Angeles this season: the Titans’ Tony Pollard (92 yards) and the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (76 yards). No other opponent has topped 60 yards against the Rams. McCaffrey? He’s eclipsed that number just twice in his last eight games."

Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 passing TDs (+115 via BetMGM) 

"After throwing just one touchdown in the season opener against Houston, Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has exploded with seven scoring tosses in his last three contests. That includes a TD trifecta in last week’s comeback win over the Colts.

Since being traded to Los Angeles before the 2021 season, Stafford has thrown multiple TDs in four straight games on four different occasions (twice in 2021, and once each in 2023 and 2024). However, since joining the Rams, he has only 8 passing TDs in seven regular-season games against San Francisco, including just one multi-TD effort. Yes, the Niners inexplicably allowed the Saints’ Spencer Rattler to rack up three touchdowns in Week 2, but they've surrendered a total of two passing TDs combined across their other three games."

SBR Andy · 2025-10-02T18:49:40+00:00

Thursday Night Football anytime touchdown picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Davante Adams, WR, Rams (+105 via Caesars)

"Davante Adams has played more snaps than Puka Nacua, the Rams' No. 1 receiver who's featured in Matt Jacob's 49ers vs. Rams player props, in all but one game thus far. Though he's topped 56 yards just once, he scored a touchdown in three straight games entering Thursday Night Football.

The 49ers are allowing opposing receivers to catch 66.1% of their targets at a 7.11-yard average. While they've surrendered just two touchdowns to the position, Adams and QB Matthew Stafford present a stiffer test."

Blake Corum, RB, Rams (+330 via FanDuel)

"Blake Corum played his largest role of the season last week with 11 total touches in just 29% of the snaps played. Though he turned those into a very mediocre 16 yards from scrimmage, I'm again expecting a large workload for the second-year back in what's expected to be a blowout Rams win.

Corum has just four red-zone carries on the season, but that's where his one touchdown came from. Starter Kyren Williams has had 10 red-zone carries but just one touchdown on 31 yards."

Kendrick Bourne, WR, 49ers (+350 via FanDuel)

"Meet the 49ers' new No. 1 wide receiver, with Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings both ruled out for tonight's game. As such, I'm backing Kendrick Bourne with the longest odds of my three anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

Bourne played 67% of the offensive snaps last week, in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. While he made just one 17-yard reception, he was targeted four times. That volume (or higher) will be there once again with the 49ers such a big underdog on the road at SoFi Stadium."