MNF: Bengals vs Broncos Prediction

[SBR Andy]

The second Monday Night Football game sees 2-1 Cincinnati take on 1-2 Denver at 8:15 PM ET on ABC. SBR's Gary Pearson takes a look at the matchup in his Bengals vs Broncos prediction:

Broncos -7.5 (-110 BetMGM)

"Until Jake Browning proves otherwise, I'm fading the Cincinnati Bengals' stand-in QB as part of our Bengals vs. Broncos prediction. Yes, he found a way to secure a comeback win in Week 2, but that was more down to the Jacksonville Jaguars' ineptitude.

Browning has tossed the most interceptions (5) in less than two games, and he got trounced 48-10 against the Minnesota Vikings last week in his first start of the season, where he threw two picks and was sacked three times.

Things won't get any easier for Browning in the Mile High City against a Broncos defense that is tied for the most sacks (12) and tied for the eighth-best EPA per play.

The Broncos defense also has the second-highest hurry percentage (14.5%), just in front of the Vikings' 14.3%, and the third-highest blitz rate (36%).

After losing two straight via walk-off field goals, the Broncos should have increased motivation to make things right at home, where they were 6-2 ATS last season and, if you made the bet early enough, started this campaign by covering against the Tennessee Titans.

While Bo Nix and Co. have struggled offensively, they have a golden opportunity for a get-right game against the Bengals' 22nd-ranked defense in terms of EPA per play."


J.K.Dobbins Over 61.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

"Dobbins has at least 63 rushing yards in every game this season, averaging 74. Minnesota Vikings running back Jordan Mason had a field day against the Bengals last week, accumulating 116 yards on 16 carries.

Cincinnati has the ninth-worst defensive rushing DVOA and allows 119 rushing yards per game. If the game script unfurls as I envision, the Broncos will be in control entering the fourth quarter.

That would provide Dobbins the opportunity to pad the stats. Of the best sports betting apps, BetMGM is the outlier, offering the lowest total (61.5 yards)."


Bengals vs Broncos Best Odds:



Can the Bengals keep it close or will Denver pull away?

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Phil Wood shares his best Bengals vs Broncos player prop bets:

Ja’Marr Chase Over 5.5 receptions (+100 via DraftKings)

"In his first full game with Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase finished with five catches for 50 yards against the Minnesota Vikings. Though the stat line was far from impressive, Chase was the team leader in targets (6) and yards. Tonight, instead of facing the league’s third-best pass defense, he faces the 18th.

With Browning throwing him the ball, I still don’t trust Chase’s yards. But I do expect him to be the focal point of the offensive attack with his team trailing most of the game. And while much has been made of Chase’s matchup against Patrick Surtain II, Chase still had nine catches for 102 yards against the Broncos last year."


J.K. Dobbins anytime TD scorer (-130 via DraftKings)

"Denver Broncos running back J.K. Dobbins has scored in all three games, as he’s received 74.5% of the running back rushing attempts this season. While the Bengals have allowed just three rushing touchdowns thus far, they’ve given up five touchdowns to running backs, two of which were receiving scores.

With R.J. Harvey’s role in the offense shrinking every week, it’s clear this is Dobbins’ backfield. Harvey had six carries for 70 yards in Week 1, while he had just five for eight yards and two for two yards in Weeks 2 and 3, respectively. The Broncos will score plenty in this game, as the Bengals are allowing 30.3 points per game, and Dobbins will have numerous opportunities."


Chase Brown Under 53.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel)

"The Broncos are giving up 114.7 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, but Cincinnati Bengals running back Chase Brown has shown no ability to take advantage of matchups this season. Last week, he ran 10 times for just three yards, recording an abysmal 0.3 yards per carry.

Brown has yet to top 47 yards this season, but more worrying is that he’s averaging just 2.0 yards per carry. He hasn’t topped 2.9 yards per attempt in a single game this season. Considering the Broncos are favored by more than a touchdown, oddsmakers clearly expect the Bengals to be playing from behind. That means very few touches for Brown, which gives him very little chance of hitting this low number."