TNF Week 3: Dolphins vs Bills Predictions

DwightShrute · 09-16-25, 09:18 AM

could be the coach's last game in Miami

SBR Andy · 09-16-25, 11:12 AM

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the action in his early Dolphins vs Bills prediction:

Over 49.5 (-110)

"We're just two weeks into the regular season, and it already feels like the writing is on the wall for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel. His Miami Dolphins are woeful. Offensively, defensively, it doesn't matter.

They are the current laughingstock of the league, as evidenced by the early TNF spread, which has the Bills as the 12.5-point betting favorite. While tempted to back the Bills to cover, I'm as scared about a garbage-time Miami cover as McDaniel should be about losing his job.

So, it's on to the Over.

The Dolphins' defense allowed points on the first 10 possessions of the 2025 season, one shy of tying the single-season record set by the San Diego Chargers in 2001.

As if that deflating tidbit isn't enough, the Dolphins must be as low on confidence and motivation as a professional clown who lost the ability to juggle. That's a foreboding thought entering Highmark Stadium against the high-octane Bills, who scored 71 points in their first two games.

That total probably would have been higher had NFL MVP odds favorite Josh Allen and his band of offensive bullies not let their foot off the gas against the New York Jets. While the Dolphins' ability to score points concerns me, I have faith they can muster a few garbage-time scores against a potentially vulnerable and youthful Bills' defense. And who knows, maybe another punt return for six is on the cards."

DwightShrute · 09-17-25, 02:44 AM

https://x.com/i/status/1968110126017155137

No leadership.
No emotion.

I hope I am wrong, but I see things getting worse before they get better.

Miami 19 Buffalo 44

SBR Andy · 09-17-25, 08:46 AM

SBR's Dustin Saracini is also predicting lots of points on Thursday night:

Over 48.5 (-115)

"Both defenses might fall into the bottom 15 this year when it comes to scoring, leaving us with ample opportunity for the Over to hit on Thursday Night Football. Giving up over 70 points combined in the first week of the season between the two units is a good indicator of where we're at."

SBR Andy · 09-18-25, 07:25 AM

SBR's Matt Jacob shares his best Dolphins vs Bills player prop bets:

Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-130 via bet365)

"Josh Allen hasn’t just had his way with Miami’s defensive backs over the years; he’s flat-out destroyed them. In 14 career regular-season games and one playoff contest, Allen has thrown 40 touchdowns. Number of times Allen has racked up multiple TD passes in those 15 games: 14.

Need more convincing to play this prop at bet365 (which has the best odds at -130)? This should do the trick: Two quarterbacks have already shredded the Dolphins this season. Those QBs? Daniel Jones (272 yards, 1 TD) and Drake Maye (230 yards, 2 TDs).

And while Allen didn’t have an aerial score in last week’s 30-10 rout of the Jets, he had two in Week 1 against Pittsburgh - and he has multiple scoring passes in 11 of his last 16 games (postseason included)."

James Cook Under 68.5 rushing yards (-115 via Caesars)

"I fully expect the Bills to try to establish the run against Miami. And I fully expect them to ask James Cook to do the heavy lifting. I just don’t expect it to work.

Yes, the Dolphins are allowing 139 rushing yards per game (eighth-most in the league). But the top two tailbacks they’ve faced - the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor and the Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson - tallied just 71 and 54 yards, respectively.

Cook did erupt for 132 yards (and two TDs) last week against the Jets. But the Ravens held him to 44 yards on 13 carries in the opener. And in the four career games against the Dolphins where he’s had double-digit carries, Cook produced yardage totals of 29, 34, 36, and 78."

Tyreek Hill Under 66.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) 

"Tyreek Hill came to life last week against New England, hauling in six passes for 109 yards. However, it was just the seventh time in the last 18 games that Hill cleared 61 receiving yards. One of those positive performances came in Buffalo last November (four catches, 80 yards). Hill also had 82 yards (on seven catches) against the Bills in the 2023 regular-season finale.

Otherwise, Buffalo has tamed The Cheetah, limiting him to 63 yards or fewer in six of seven other meetings. Also worth noting: Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle is banged up. If he doesn’t play or is limited, Buffalo - which has the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense - can divert more attention to Hill."

DwightShrute · 09-18-25, 08:40 AM

...

SBR Andy · 09-18-25, 12:41 PM

SBR's Esten McLaren has his best TNF anytime touchdown scorer bets ready to go:

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins (+255 via FanDuel)

"Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins' No. 2 receiver, caught five of six targets for 68 yards and his first touchdown of the season in last week's loss to the New England Patriots. He's now sitting at nine receptions on 11 targets and 98 yards through two games. The wideout has matched Tyreek Hill with 78 offensive snaps this season.

I'm not too concerned with Waddle (shoulder) being officially listed as questionable on the Dolphins' injury report after getting in limited practices this week.

I like Waddle as the more reliable anytime touchdown scorer prediction over Hill (+180 via DraftKings), with the latter showing visible frustration with QB Tua Tagovailoa each week. The Dolphins are a 12.5-point underdog with an Over/Under of 49.5 points for Thursday Night Football. Miami will run a pass-heavy game plan benefiting Waddle."

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills (+245 via DraftKings)

"DraftKings is featuring the best anytime touchdown scorer odds for Khalil Shakir at +245. BetMGM once again offers much shorter +175 odds (36.36% implied win probability).

Shakir is second to Keon Coleman on the Bills with 97 offensive snaps played through two weeks. He caught six of nine targets for 64 yards before getting a more limited two looks and catching one pass for 12 yards in last week's 30-10 blowout win over the New York Jets.

While Thursday Night Football is expected to end with a similar score, these touchdown scorer odds for Shakir are inflated. This is the perfect spot for QB Josh Allen to get one of his favorite receivers into the end zone for the first time this season. Shakir caught 11 of 12 targets in two games against the Dolphins last campaign."

Ray Davis, RB, Bills (+450 via BetMGM)

"Blowouts call for backup running backs, and that's exactly the role Ray Davis played last week while getting 27% of the offensive snaps, more than Ty Johnson and Reggie Gilliam. Meanwhile, James Cook had himself a day against the Jets while receiving only 47% of the snaps.

Davis ran for just 24 yards on nine rushing attempts last week, but he should get plenty of usage around the goal line tonight. The 5-foot-8, 220-pound back will be able to bowl his way over the goal line with Buffalo expected to be running out the clock for much of the second half.

Get in on this bet with +450 odds via BetMGM instead of the shorter +370 odds from DraftKings."