TNF Week 2: Commanders vs Packers Predictions

SBR Andy · 09-09-25, 12:20 PM

SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the matchup in his early Commanders vs Packers prediction:

Packers -3.5 (-110)

"The Packers were 5-4 ATS at Lambeau Field last season. However, with the addition of Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Micah Parsons, the current version of the Packers has undergone a significant facelift.

And I'm not talking about one of those botched, ghastly facelifts you see so often.

Green Bay steamrolled Detroit 27-13 at home on Sunday in a score that flattered the visitors. The Packers dominated every facet despite only featuring Parsons in 29 of 65 defensive snaps. With the acclimation process almost complete, expect their new asset to approach a full workload against a Commanders team he knows as well as any other opponent.

It's not just his familiarity with the Commanders, but the impact he had on Jayden Daniels last season. He sacked Daniels 4.5 times, had six QB hits, and four TFL in two games. He, along with Lukas Van Ness and Rashan Gary, should also be able to contain Daniels better than the New York Giants.

While the Commanders took care of business at home against the G-Men, they face an immeasurably more challenging prospect on the road against a Packers team that is clearly feeling it."

SBR Andy · 09-11-25, 09:50 AM

SBR's Matt Jacob has 3 player prop bets ready to go for Commanders vs Packers on Thursday Night Football:

Terry McLaurin to score anytime touchdown (+155 via FanDuel)

"A lengthy and very public contract dispute led to a tumultuous offseason and training camp for Terry McLaurin and the Commanders. McLaurin ultimately got his money before coming out and putting up a Week 1 dud against the Giants (two receptions for 27 yards).

It was just the second time in 10 games (playoffs included) that McLaurin failed to score a touchdown. McLaurin hasn't failed to score in consecutive games since Weeks 10 and 11 last season. In fact, since Week 3 in 2024, McLaurin was held scoreless in back-to-back games just twice.

We’ll bet on him notching his first touchdown of 2025 tonight in Green Bay."

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Under 38.5 rushing yards (-120 via Caesars)

"Washington rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt had an NFL debut to remember, turning 10 carries into a game-high 82 yards against the Giants. Now it’s time for the former Arizona standout to get a dose of reality in his first NFL road game, on a short week, against a defense that was dominant in Week 1.

Green Bay held Detroit’s dynamic rushing duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery to 44 rushing yards on a combined 20 carries. It was a sign that the Packers shored up a big weakness, as last year, they allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the league.

I expect Croskey-Merritt’s workload to mimic last week’s. If I’m right, he’d have to average nearly four yards per tote to beat this prop - not happening."

Jordan Love Under 233.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) 

"Jordan Love went 16-for-22 and racked up just 188 passing yards in his 2025 debut against the Lions. This continued a disturbing trend that has seen Love go seven straight games without eclipsing 229 passing yards. Even worse, he had 212 yards or fewer in six of those outings.

This week, Love faces a Washington secondary that went from dead last in pass defense in 2023 (262.2 yards per game) to third in 2024 (189.5). How’d that secondary do in Week 1 against the Giants? It held Russell Wilson to 168 yards on 37 pass attempts.

BetMGM lists Love’s passing yards projection as many as seven yards higher than the rest of the market."

SBR Andy · 09-11-25, 01:40 PM

Looking for TD scorer picks? SBR's Esten McLaren posts his best anytime touchdown scorer bets for TNF:

Jayden Daniels (+175 via DraftKings)

"The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels, enters Thursday Night Football among the top NFL MVP odds contenders.

He was held out of the end zone last week but scored six in his rookie campaign. The Packers did an admirable job last week of holding Detroit Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to 2.20 yards per carry in a 14-point win. As such, I'm not expecting a whole lot from a Commanders backfield headlined by Austin Ekeler and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Look for Daniels to need to make some more plays with his legs this week for the Commanders to compete as a 3.5-point road underdog."

Terry McLaurin (+180 via DraftKings)

"Terry McLaurin played a team-high 79% of the offensive snaps last week, but he caught just two of four targets for a modest 27 yards while watching newcomer Deebo Samuel catch seven of his 10 targets for 77 yards and rush for a 19-yard score. We're now getting better +185 odds (DraftKings) for Scary Terry to score than the best price of +180 (bet365) available for Samuel.

McLaurin was able to shake off the rust of his offseason holdout in Washington's comfortable win over the New York Giants. I expect the training wheels to come off now that he's up to full speed and needed much more in a more difficult matchup against the Packers."

Matthew Golden (+290 via via DraftKings) 

"Matthew Golden at +290 odds (DraftKings) to score a touchdown tonight is the highest number I'm looking to target for Thursday night's anytime touchdown scorer predictions. The Commanders and Packers leaned on their stars last week (with no shortage of them on either side), and I expect more of the same to kick off Week 2.

Golden was targeted just twice in his NFL debut last week, but he caught both them with a long of 11. Most importantly, he ranked second on the team with 66% of the offensive snaps played. Now that he's had a look at true NFL speed, I expect him to be more heavily involved."