Friday: Chiefs vs Chargers Predictions

SBR Andy · 09-03-25, 08:19 AM

SBR's Gary Pearson takes a look at the matchup with his early Chiefs vs Chargers prediction:

Under 45.5 (-108 FanDuel)

"A pair of defenses that finished in the top third of defensive DVOA last season aim to replicate their performance from when these teams met last season. The Under cashed in both meetings, with the Chiefs winning 17-10 in Los Angeles and 19-17 in Kansas City.

Much of the Chiefs' defense, the 12th-best in terms of DVOA last season, remains intact. Steve Spagnuolo's unit, which allowed the sixth-fewest points per game (20.5), stymied a relatively stagnant Chargers offense.

Jim Harbaugh has made significant improvements to his offense by drafting KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Oronde Gadsden II while landing Najee Harris and Keenan Allen. However, I'm unconvinced by an offensive line that had the worst pass-block rating last season, according to PFF, and lost star left tackle Rashawn Slater to injury.

The Chargers' defense, meanwhile, might be inferior to last season's after losing Joey Bosa and Poona Ford. The prospective regression should be relatively minor, though, as we're talking about last season's second-best scoring defense (18.5 points allowed per game).

I'm also concerned about Patrick Mahomes' offensive line on the blind side, with first-round pick Josh Simmons and new left guard Kingsley Suamataia tasked to protect their MVP odds contender.

The Under cashed in seven of the Chargers' first eight games last season, and I expect a similar encounter from their previous two meetings with the Chiefs."

stevenash · 09-03-25, 08:50 AM

Chargers +3 please.

SBR Andy · 09-05-25, 07:33 AM

SBR's Mike Spector shares his Chiefs vs Chargers predictions for Friday night:

Chargers +3.5 (-125 BetMGM)

"The Chiefs have won seven straight games against the Chargers. And this game with a low point spread should again play into Kansas City’s hands after a year in which it finished 10-0 in one-score games. So while I am not backing Los Angeles to pull the outright upset given Patrick Mahomes’ magic in tight games - he's Gary Pearson's No. 1 QB in the NFL Clutch Ratings - the competitiveness of this rivalry has me taking the underdogs with the points as my Chiefs vs. Chargers best bet.

Four of Los Angeles’ last seven losses to Kansas City have been by three or fewer points, not including an overtime loss where the Chiefs scored a touchdown to end it.

This is the kind of game that Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh lives for. Kansas City is not likely to blow the doors off the Chargers offensively, coming off a season where it ranked 31st in explosive plays (75), 23rd in yards per play (5.1), and 29th in yards per rush.

I am rushing to make this wager at BetMGM, even at the higher -125 juice. It is the only one of the betting sites still offering a spread of +3.5, and that extra half-point is crucial compared to all other competitors now at +3."

Omarion Hampton to record 50+ rushing yards (+100 DraftKings)

"The Chargers are privy to the fact that a more successful running game helps out their defense and overall chances of success tremendously. In 2023, the Chargers ranked 27th in designed rush percentage, while their opponents’ points per game average was 24th. But when their designed rush percentage was 10th last year, they ranked first in opponents’ points per game.

Los Angeles felt the urgency to use its first-round draft pick on Omarion Hampton after finishing 17th in rushing yards per game last year, the worst rank for a Harbaugh-coached NFL team.

Hampton’s 3,164 rushing yards since 2023 with North Carolina were the second-most of any FBS player. So provided that the Chargers are disciplined enough to stick with the run to keep the Chiefs' offense off the field, this is a total Hampton should surpass.

I am opting for the plus-money odds at DraftKings’ alternate rushing yards, which is great value compared to the -115 odds on the Over of 48.5 yards at BetMGM."

SBR Andy · 09-05-25, 12:03 PM

SBR's Isaiah Sirois has 3 Chiefs vs Chargers player prop bets ready to go:

Patrick Mahomes Under 246.5 passing yards (-112 via DraftKings)

"The world loves Patrick Mahomes, but let’s not forget that he averaged only 245.5 passing yards per game last year, a career-low mark for him as a starter. Some of that underperformance has to do with the injury to Rashee Rice, who will also miss Friday’s game, this time due to a suspension. Mahomes’ top three receivers without Rice are Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Gross.

On the other side of the field is an intimidating Chargers defense paired with a complementary slow-paced offense. The Chargers’ offense ranked 10th in rushing-play percentage last year, with the most seconds per play. Meanwhile, L.A. ranked an impressive seventh in total passing yards allowed per game (209.9) and held Mahomes under this number twice."

Omarion Hampton Over 12.5 receiving yards (-113 via FanDuel)

"I was somewhat surprised when I opened up our NFL player prop odds tool to see where the market had landed on Omarion Hampton. Despite being named the starting running back for Friday’s game, Hampton’s receiving yardage prop was sitting at a lowly 12.5! Hampton earned the second-best receiver rating among this year’s crop of rookie running backs and averaged 3.2 receptions and 31.1 receiving yards per game in his final year of college football.

While the Chargers may rotate in Najee Harris, Hampton has the better receiving chops. Harris totaled 36 receptions last year, but Hampton caught more passes in five fewer games at the college level. Hampton also has higher upside athletically, with him taking his catches for nearly 10 yards per reception versus Harris taking his for 7.9 (a career-best, mind you – he averages just 6.4 yards per reception since entering the NFL).

With the Chiefs favored, the Chargers may need to rely more on the passing game than offensive coordinator Greg Roman may like, and I love Hampton to go over 12.5 receiving yards for -113 (53%) at FanDuel. You can even ladder this up to 20 yards (+176 at FanDuel) or 25 yards (+223 at DraftKings)."

Keenan Allen Under 3.5 receptions (+114 via FanDuel) 

"The Chargers added Ladd McConkey to pick up the slack left behind by Keenan Allen, so when they reunited with the veteran receiver, I didn’t understand how they would find a way to get them both on the field. McConkey spent 64.6% of his snaps in the slot last year, while Allen spent 43.2% of his snaps there last season and 55.5% of them in his previous year with L.A. (2023).

It’s not like Los Angeles has the receiver talent to run four- or five-receiver sets, so if Roman wants to use both McConkey and Allen, one will likely have to be on the boundary. That doesn’t favor either of their skill sets. It’s far likelier that these guys spend a healthy chunk of the game rotating, and with McConkey offering more upside at this point in his career, he probably gets the nod before Allen.

Allen simply may not see the volume fans and bettors are used to seeing from him."