Why betting NFL parlays is the dumbest (and smartest) move you can make

[Dave6565]

Most people think parlays are a lottery ticket. I’ll explain why sportsbooks LOVE them… and why sharp bettors still play them.

Buckle up.


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1. The Trap
Sportsbooks make MILLIONS off casual bettors stacking 5, 6, 7 legs every Sunday.
The edge compounds with every added leg.

That “$10 to win $500” slip? It’s pure casino bait.


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2. The Math Nobody Talks About
A true 3-leg parlay at -110 odds should pay +595.
Most books only give you +600 or worse.
That’s a HUGE hidden edge for the house.

So yeah—your “lotto ticket” is rigged from the start.


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3. But Here’s the Twist…
Parlays aren’t always dumb.
If you ONLY parlay correlated bets (things that are connected), you can flip the edge.

Example:

QB Over passing yards

WR Over receiving yards

Team Over points


If the QB goes off, all 3 hit together.


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4. Why It’s Controversial
Most bettors don’t realize books HATE correlated parlays.
Some sportsbooks even ban them.
Why? Because they know it kills their margin.

So the same bet type they push every Sunday?
They’ll limit you if you actually play it smart.


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5. The Bottom Line
Random 8-leg parlays = donating money to Vegas.
Correlated 2–3 leg parlays = sharp weapon if you know the matchup.

Don’t hate parlays.
Just stop using them the way sportsbooks WANT you to.


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Hot take: Parlays are the worst bet in the NFL for casuals… and the best bet for sharps.

Agree or disagree?

[ddittie]

"A true 3-leg parlay at -110 odds should pay +595.
Most books only give you +600 or worse."

That's obv a slip up from having ai write the post.

I love correlated parlays. Stuff like Team A to win, Team A to score over X pts, QB to get over X yards. If they win, those other things should happen. However, the books catch on to this and in some cases, the payout miraculously decreases.

Most of my bets are 4-6 leg parlays, where the odds to hit them are around 60%, and the payout is even money or better.

[Optional]

I don't think you will find many correlated parlays that already don't have the odds shaved as a recalculated SGP at any bookmaker.

I also don't know of any books that pay less than true odds for a 3 leg -110 non correlated parlay. If a book was offering +600 I'd think that would be quite popular. Where can we get this?

If you are able to calculate that you have an edge against the odds, like ddittie mentions above, then parlaying those plays multiplies that edge. Which is probably the most useful way to be 'sharp' about playing them.