1. Since 2015, divisional unders have quietly outperformed the market. Why? Familiarity breeds tighter games. Coaches know tendencies. QBs know schemes.
2. From 2015 to 2023, the under hit at 56.7% in divisional matchups.
That’s a 9-year ROI of ~7%, assuming standard -110 juice.
Better than most props, sides, or even some “sharp” systems.
3. It gets better...
Weeks 13–18?
Unders in divisional games hit at over 59% during that span.
These late-season games are slower, colder, and higher pressure.
4. Key reasons:
– Teams play conservative to avoid mistakes
– Outdoor conditions get worse
– Divisional stakes = playoff implications = less risk-taking
5. Best value:
– AFC North & NFC East matchups
These hit 60%+ in divisional unders since 2018. Think cold weather, brutal defenses, and slugfests.
6. Bonus stat:
Games with a total of 42 or lower in divisional matchups?
Unders hit 62.3% since 2015.
Books know what’s coming — but the public still bets overs.
7. Don’t blindly bet unders.
But when it’s a divisional game, late in the season, with a low total and outdoor stadium —
The value is real.
2. From 2015 to 2023, the under hit at 56.7% in divisional matchups.
That’s a 9-year ROI of ~7%, assuming standard -110 juice.
Better than most props, sides, or even some “sharp” systems.
3. It gets better...
Weeks 13–18?
Unders in divisional games hit at over 59% during that span.
These late-season games are slower, colder, and higher pressure.
4. Key reasons:
– Teams play conservative to avoid mistakes
– Outdoor conditions get worse
– Divisional stakes = playoff implications = less risk-taking
5. Best value:
– AFC North & NFC East matchups
These hit 60%+ in divisional unders since 2018. Think cold weather, brutal defenses, and slugfests.
6. Bonus stat:
Games with a total of 42 or lower in divisional matchups?
Unders hit 62.3% since 2015.
Books know what’s coming — but the public still bets overs.
7. Don’t blindly bet unders.
But when it’s a divisional game, late in the season, with a low total and outdoor stadium —
The value is real.