Manning, Colts have their eyes on prize
If all goes according to plan, the Colts will be playing for their sixth NFL title in a little more than two weeks as one half of the lineup in Super Bowl XLIV. Then again, the Jets aren't following the same plan as Peyton Manning & Co in this Sunday's AFC Championship. New York upset Indianapolis nearly a month ago, but this Sunday afternoon's contest at Lucas Oil Stadium will play out to a far different script.
Let’s take a look back at the New York Jets’ 29-15 win over the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 27.
New York cashed as three-point underdogs in the upset, but not before Jim Caldwell pulled his starters off the field midway through the third quarter. Before that happened, the Colts were leading 15-10 with about a quarter and a half of football to go.
What do you think happens if Indy plays the rest of the game with Peyton Manning at quarterback instead of Curtis Painter and Dwight Freeney rushing Mark Sanchez instead of sipping Gatorade on the sidelines?
If you went with “Indianapolis likely wins the game and covers the spread easily”, then congratulations. You just handicapped Sunday afternoon’s AFC Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium (3 PM ET, CBS) between the Jets and Colts.
I’m not naive enough to think Sunday’s game will be a carbon copy of the first meeting (Indy’s starters will play all four quarters for one), but there isn’t enough evidence to support matters going much differently than what went down before Caldwell pulled the plug.
Any confidence New York picked up from knocking off Cincinnati and San Diego in recent weeks has to be offset by the resolve Indianapolis brings into the game with Manning gunning for his second career Super Bowl title.
The Jets also have to feel bolstered by being one of two teams to actually defeat the Colts this season, but when you consider the Buffalo Bills smacked Indianapolis in Week 17, all bets are off on that front.
The only thing that gives me pause is New York’s impressive 7-1 SU and ATS mark over its last eight games. Rolling into Qualcomm Stadium and stunning a Chargers team that had reeled off 11 straight games SU (7-3-1 ATS) shouldn’t be discounted.
Thing is, as much as you can credit the Jets for stifling Philip Rivers into two interceptions, Rex Ryan’s bunch had nothing to with the otherwise clutch Nate Kaeding crapping the bed. Kaeding missed three field goals in good weather conditions against New York. If that doesn’t happen, we’re talking about San Diego as a sharp underdog wager against Indy.
You also have to account for the Colts’ record this season when their full lineup (minus injury) plays the entire game. Leaving aside Indianapolis’ losses to New York and Buffalo in which it tanked to save itself for the playoffs, the Colts are an unsightly 15-0 SU and 11-3-1 ATS. Pretty good for a team that’s squarely in the public eye after winning 22 regular season games in succession SU before handing a victory to the Jets in Week 16.
The Jets do match up well with the Colts’ strengths. New York has the league’s best total defense (251.6 yards against per game), scoring defense (14.8 PPG), and passing defense (152.9 YPG). With the two-headed beast of veteran Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, the Jets also sport the NFL’s best running game (172.3 YPG).
Indianapolis has a pass-heavy offense, and ranks second in the league in that category (281.6 YPG). The Colts don’t really run the ball, and are only 25th (126.5 YPG) at stopping the rush.
All of these things work in New York’s favor, but it won’t be enough to keep it closer than a touchdown on Sunday. If you need to see what Indy is capable of doing against an offense that leans heavily on the run, look at what it did in choking off the Baltimore Ravens last Saturday night.
Knowing they were going to run the ball ad nauseum (like the Jets will attempt to do this week), the Colts held the Ravens to only 12 first downs and 87 yards rushing en route to a 20-3 win as 6 ½-point chalk. This came one week after Baltimore torched New England for well over 200 yards on the ground. The Indy defense also forced four turnovers against the Ravens.
Oddsmakers opened the Colts as 7 ½-point favorites earlier in the week, and the number is holding there at most outlets. Indy is available from -7 to -8, although one rogue sportsbook had Indianapolis laying only 5 ½ points for Sunday’s game.
That same shop had the total at 41, two full points higher than the 39-point number that was the consensus nearly across the board as of press time. The total opened at 40 ½, so if the number is going anywhere, it’s down.
If all goes according to plan, the Colts will be playing for their sixth NFL title in a little more than two weeks as one half of the lineup in Super Bowl XLIV. Then again, the Jets aren't following the same plan as Peyton Manning & Co in this Sunday's AFC Championship. New York upset Indianapolis nearly a month ago, but this Sunday afternoon's contest at Lucas Oil Stadium will play out to a far different script.
Let’s take a look back at the New York Jets’ 29-15 win over the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 27.
New York cashed as three-point underdogs in the upset, but not before Jim Caldwell pulled his starters off the field midway through the third quarter. Before that happened, the Colts were leading 15-10 with about a quarter and a half of football to go.
What do you think happens if Indy plays the rest of the game with Peyton Manning at quarterback instead of Curtis Painter and Dwight Freeney rushing Mark Sanchez instead of sipping Gatorade on the sidelines?
If you went with “Indianapolis likely wins the game and covers the spread easily”, then congratulations. You just handicapped Sunday afternoon’s AFC Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium (3 PM ET, CBS) between the Jets and Colts.
I’m not naive enough to think Sunday’s game will be a carbon copy of the first meeting (Indy’s starters will play all four quarters for one), but there isn’t enough evidence to support matters going much differently than what went down before Caldwell pulled the plug.
Any confidence New York picked up from knocking off Cincinnati and San Diego in recent weeks has to be offset by the resolve Indianapolis brings into the game with Manning gunning for his second career Super Bowl title.
The Jets also have to feel bolstered by being one of two teams to actually defeat the Colts this season, but when you consider the Buffalo Bills smacked Indianapolis in Week 17, all bets are off on that front.
The only thing that gives me pause is New York’s impressive 7-1 SU and ATS mark over its last eight games. Rolling into Qualcomm Stadium and stunning a Chargers team that had reeled off 11 straight games SU (7-3-1 ATS) shouldn’t be discounted.
Thing is, as much as you can credit the Jets for stifling Philip Rivers into two interceptions, Rex Ryan’s bunch had nothing to with the otherwise clutch Nate Kaeding crapping the bed. Kaeding missed three field goals in good weather conditions against New York. If that doesn’t happen, we’re talking about San Diego as a sharp underdog wager against Indy.
You also have to account for the Colts’ record this season when their full lineup (minus injury) plays the entire game. Leaving aside Indianapolis’ losses to New York and Buffalo in which it tanked to save itself for the playoffs, the Colts are an unsightly 15-0 SU and 11-3-1 ATS. Pretty good for a team that’s squarely in the public eye after winning 22 regular season games in succession SU before handing a victory to the Jets in Week 16.
The Jets do match up well with the Colts’ strengths. New York has the league’s best total defense (251.6 yards against per game), scoring defense (14.8 PPG), and passing defense (152.9 YPG). With the two-headed beast of veteran Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, the Jets also sport the NFL’s best running game (172.3 YPG).
Indianapolis has a pass-heavy offense, and ranks second in the league in that category (281.6 YPG). The Colts don’t really run the ball, and are only 25th (126.5 YPG) at stopping the rush.
All of these things work in New York’s favor, but it won’t be enough to keep it closer than a touchdown on Sunday. If you need to see what Indy is capable of doing against an offense that leans heavily on the run, look at what it did in choking off the Baltimore Ravens last Saturday night.
Knowing they were going to run the ball ad nauseum (like the Jets will attempt to do this week), the Colts held the Ravens to only 12 first downs and 87 yards rushing en route to a 20-3 win as 6 ½-point chalk. This came one week after Baltimore torched New England for well over 200 yards on the ground. The Indy defense also forced four turnovers against the Ravens.
Oddsmakers opened the Colts as 7 ½-point favorites earlier in the week, and the number is holding there at most outlets. Indy is available from -7 to -8, although one rogue sportsbook had Indianapolis laying only 5 ½ points for Sunday’s game.
That same shop had the total at 41, two full points higher than the 39-point number that was the consensus nearly across the board as of press time. The total opened at 40 ½, so if the number is going anywhere, it’s down.
