By Rick Alonzo & Jean-Jacques Taylor For Sporting News
A couple of weeks ago, the NFC playoffs appeared to be wide open as the Vikings and Saints stumbled through December. Now the hot team is Dallas, which has quickly gained momentum after back-to-back wins over Philadelphia, including a 34-14 trouncing in the wild-card round. The third-seeded Cowboys are favored by many analysts to defeat the second-seeded Vikings on Sunday. The Cowboys opened as 2 1/2-point underdogs on the road, but it's the Vikings who feel they're being overlooked.
It's an interesting matchup that features two quarterbacks who have toned down their gunslinging ways this season. Dallas' Tony Romo and Minnesota's Brett Favre both set career lows for interceptions this season. Sunday's outcome could come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Wade Phillips, who coached the Cowboys to their first playoff win since 1996, is known for his acumen on defense. And how his 3-4 system performs against a Vikings team loaded with options in the West Coast offense could become the biggest factor in the game.
Cowboys Keys For Success
1. Hold Adrian Peterson under 85 yards. The Cowboys have no chance to win if Minnesota can run and pass whenever it chooses. It must slow Peterson enough to make the Vikings one-dimensional. Then Dallas can attack Favre with an array of blitzes and hope he makes mistakes. Peterson had a down year but still gained 1,383 yards, averaged 4.4 per carry and scored 18 touchdowns. He had only three 100-yard games but had four others with more than 90 yards. The Cowboys finished fourth in the NFL against the run (90.5) and did not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.
2. Don't allow more than 21 points. Minnesota's offense is a beast in the Metrodome, where the Vikings have not scored fewer than 27 points while going 8-0. Dallas has allowed more than 21 points twice this season�the Giants did it both times. The Cowboys' defense has been sensational the last month, yielding just 31 points combined and recording two shutouts. The emergence of outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins has given the Cowboys two more playmakers�All-Pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and All-Pro nose tackle Jay Ratliff are the others�surrounded by a core of solid players. The Vikings' offense will be the ninth top-10 attack the Cowboys have faced this season, and only the Giants have surpassed their average in points and yards against Dallas. 3. Reduce penalties on offense. The Cowboys finished the season No. 2 in the NFL in offensive penalties (65) and No. 1 in offensive penalty yardage (491). They backed up their poor standing with nine offensive penalties last week against Philadelphia, some of which resulted in the Cowboys failing to score after entering the red zone. Dallas can't afford to leave points on the field because of offensive penalties.
Vikings Keys For Success
1. Contain the pass rush. Vikings offensive tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt must contain Ware and Spencer, who combined for three of the four sacks on Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb last week. McKinnie and Loadholt do struggle at times with speed rushers. McKinnie was voted to the Pro Bowl this year, but he struggled late in the year against the speed and power of Carolina's Julius Peppers and was benched in the second half.
2. Establish the run. To neutralize the Dallas pass rush, the Vikings say they want to establish the run. That would help the offensive line set the tone as a physical group. Peterson will be needed in these playoffs. He must protect the ball after leading the league in lost fumbles (six). A good ground game would take the pressure off Favre. The Cowboys made the Philadelphia offense one-dimensional with just 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings can't let a similar situation unfold. 3. Limit Miles Austin. Romo's big-play receiver, Austin, could be a big challenge for an up-and-down secondary. If cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) doesn't play his usual position on the outside, the Vikings would be forced to rely on Benny Sapp and Cedric Griffin to handle the majority of the snaps against Austin. Winfield played in the nickel defense against the Giants two weeks ago because he wasn't 100 percent. Austin has good speed, and Winfield wasn't a burner even when healthy. This could prove to be quite the mismatch for Dallas.
The Bottom Line
Vikings coach Brad Childress is looking for his first playoff win after losing to Philadelphia in the wild-card round last season with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Vikings need to put the ball in Brett Favre's hands. This is why they signed him: to lead them in the playoffs. If he fails, so be it. The team has played its best football when Favre is the focal point of the offense, and they need to trust the same formula to work again. If this game is close, the X-factor could be the fact that the Vikings have an excellent kicker (Ryan Longwell), while the Cowboys are relying on Shaun Suisham, who was released by Washington in December after missing a short field goal against the Saints. The Vikings are undefeated at home this season, and that edge should help them win.
Scoring prediction: Cowboys 21 - Vikings 24
A couple of weeks ago, the NFC playoffs appeared to be wide open as the Vikings and Saints stumbled through December. Now the hot team is Dallas, which has quickly gained momentum after back-to-back wins over Philadelphia, including a 34-14 trouncing in the wild-card round. The third-seeded Cowboys are favored by many analysts to defeat the second-seeded Vikings on Sunday. The Cowboys opened as 2 1/2-point underdogs on the road, but it's the Vikings who feel they're being overlooked.
It's an interesting matchup that features two quarterbacks who have toned down their gunslinging ways this season. Dallas' Tony Romo and Minnesota's Brett Favre both set career lows for interceptions this season. Sunday's outcome could come down to which quarterback makes fewer mistakes. Wade Phillips, who coached the Cowboys to their first playoff win since 1996, is known for his acumen on defense. And how his 3-4 system performs against a Vikings team loaded with options in the West Coast offense could become the biggest factor in the game.
Cowboys Keys For Success
1. Hold Adrian Peterson under 85 yards. The Cowboys have no chance to win if Minnesota can run and pass whenever it chooses. It must slow Peterson enough to make the Vikings one-dimensional. Then Dallas can attack Favre with an array of blitzes and hope he makes mistakes. Peterson had a down year but still gained 1,383 yards, averaged 4.4 per carry and scored 18 touchdowns. He had only three 100-yard games but had four others with more than 90 yards. The Cowboys finished fourth in the NFL against the run (90.5) and did not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.
2. Don't allow more than 21 points. Minnesota's offense is a beast in the Metrodome, where the Vikings have not scored fewer than 27 points while going 8-0. Dallas has allowed more than 21 points twice this season�the Giants did it both times. The Cowboys' defense has been sensational the last month, yielding just 31 points combined and recording two shutouts. The emergence of outside linebacker Anthony Spencer and cornerback Mike Jenkins has given the Cowboys two more playmakers�All-Pro outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and All-Pro nose tackle Jay Ratliff are the others�surrounded by a core of solid players. The Vikings' offense will be the ninth top-10 attack the Cowboys have faced this season, and only the Giants have surpassed their average in points and yards against Dallas. 3. Reduce penalties on offense. The Cowboys finished the season No. 2 in the NFL in offensive penalties (65) and No. 1 in offensive penalty yardage (491). They backed up their poor standing with nine offensive penalties last week against Philadelphia, some of which resulted in the Cowboys failing to score after entering the red zone. Dallas can't afford to leave points on the field because of offensive penalties.
Vikings Keys For Success
1. Contain the pass rush. Vikings offensive tackles Bryant McKinnie and Phil Loadholt must contain Ware and Spencer, who combined for three of the four sacks on Philadelphia's Donovan McNabb last week. McKinnie and Loadholt do struggle at times with speed rushers. McKinnie was voted to the Pro Bowl this year, but he struggled late in the year against the speed and power of Carolina's Julius Peppers and was benched in the second half.
2. Establish the run. To neutralize the Dallas pass rush, the Vikings say they want to establish the run. That would help the offensive line set the tone as a physical group. Peterson will be needed in these playoffs. He must protect the ball after leading the league in lost fumbles (six). A good ground game would take the pressure off Favre. The Cowboys made the Philadelphia offense one-dimensional with just 13 rushing attempts last week. The Vikings can't let a similar situation unfold. 3. Limit Miles Austin. Romo's big-play receiver, Austin, could be a big challenge for an up-and-down secondary. If cornerback Antoine Winfield (foot) doesn't play his usual position on the outside, the Vikings would be forced to rely on Benny Sapp and Cedric Griffin to handle the majority of the snaps against Austin. Winfield played in the nickel defense against the Giants two weeks ago because he wasn't 100 percent. Austin has good speed, and Winfield wasn't a burner even when healthy. This could prove to be quite the mismatch for Dallas.
The Bottom Line
Vikings coach Brad Childress is looking for his first playoff win after losing to Philadelphia in the wild-card round last season with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Vikings need to put the ball in Brett Favre's hands. This is why they signed him: to lead them in the playoffs. If he fails, so be it. The team has played its best football when Favre is the focal point of the offense, and they need to trust the same formula to work again. If this game is close, the X-factor could be the fact that the Vikings have an excellent kicker (Ryan Longwell), while the Cowboys are relying on Shaun Suisham, who was released by Washington in December after missing a short field goal against the Saints. The Vikings are undefeated at home this season, and that edge should help them win.
Scoring prediction: Cowboys 21 - Vikings 24
I like it. Romo is due for one of those 4 interception games. And the Vikings do not lose at home.
