Well, after a disappointing first weekend, I'm looking to bounce back with some solid plays this round. Nobody could have seen the Bengals' poor defensive play coming, however that Under I released was just awful. It's rare I feel embarrassed by a play, but that was one of those cases. So, I'm going to do what I can to right the ship this week and get us another profitable week and back up to that 67% mark. Here's what I like this round:
I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.
Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.
The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.
For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!
- Saints -7
I know a popular public play this week is Arizona +7, however I was keyed in on this play before I even knew the public percentages. Let's start by breaking down Arizona. For starters, I'm not going to read much into the offensive show they put on last week against the Packers, as the Green Bay defense was completely asleep. They were getting absolutely no pressure on Warner, and their receivers were constantly wide open. As well as Warner may have played, most quarterbacks in the NFL can succeed when they're throwing to wide open receivers. The Saints should have 10 out of 11 of their defensive starters healthy and ready to go in this one, the first time this can be said in many weeks. People read a lot into the regression of the Saints' defense since the Patriots game, but each week they've been holding out anywhere from 2-4 defensive starters due to injuries. They haven't been able to generate the same pressure on opposing QBs since then, and with the unit healthy again I expect them to get back to their strengths. Warner has shown that he's prone to turning the ball over when pressured, and with Boldin likely out, although it didn't impact the offense last week I expect it will a bit more in this one.
Defensively, the Cardinals have played one of the easiest schedules in the league as far as opposing pass offenses go. In games against top notch passing units, the Cardinals have been shredded this year, and against this spectacular Saints offense I don't expect this to change. Although the offense slowed a bit in recent weeks, the return of Jeremy Shockey should help them get back on track as he really does a lot for them out there, when not catching the ball then helping offer protection for Brees. I'm convinced that the Cardinals come back down to earth this week, and the Saints offense does their thing and puts 31+ points on the board. We should have an easy double digit win for the Saints, along the lines of 38-20.
- Ravens/Colts OVER 44
The first time these teams met, there were a ton of points left on the field. My comments last week about the Ravens struggling against strong passing teams hasn't changed, last week I chalk the Patriots' struggles up to an injured Randy Moss and Wes Welker not playing. Brady didn't look great either, and played one of the worst games of his playoff career. Manning won't make the same mistakes as the Patriots did, and will be able to throw all over this questionable Baltimore secondary. Also, in the first meeting, the Colts only scored 17 points, despite throwing for over 9 yards per pass attempt. They suffered from three turnovers, and in this matchup I think that they'll take better care of the ball and put points on the board fairly easily. On the Ravens' side of the ball, although they're likely going to try to move the ball on the ground, I expect the Colts to force them into winning through the air. Baltimore had to settle for five field goals against the Colts in their first meeting, and this time around should find ways to get the ball into the endzone more frequently. I'm not sure who covers in this game, but either way I think we see a decent number of points on the board by each team, pushing this total over by about a touchdown.
For now, that's it. At the moment I don't have any strong reads on the Sunday games. I'll keep looking at the games into tomorrow night, but it's very possible I just keep it to these two plays this week. Good luck this weekend everyone!
