I thought about this a while ago. I noticed that the majority of the time, if the team wins the game, they most likely cover the spread. There was a thread on another forum about this and during the regular season, only 17 percent of games occurred when a team wins the game and does not cover the spread. This does not include however teams that are double digit underdogs. Reason is b/c i think for this year Favorites of 10 or better went like 45 percent or so ATS even though they won the game the majority of the time.
I even noticed that in the regular season, most of the time i bet an underdog, whenever i won, the underdog won straight up. Either that or the dog lost the game.
For the playoffs, we had
Cincy -2.5
Dallas -3.5
New England -3
Green Bay -1
I always hear people from other forums... covers... which is not a good forum, but most people will say something like I love the Jets +2.5 and POSSIBLY OUTRIGHT or Ravens +3 Big and POSSIBLY OUTRIGHT.
Do people not understand if Jet cover the 2.5 the most likely will win the bet a very good majority of the time since it rarely would be Cincy winning by 1 or 2? Same with the Ravens. I mean if Ravens lose by exactly 3 points its a push but more than likely, it won't land on the number. If Ravens cover the 3, they most likely won the game anyways. Most NFL spreads to me almost don't matter. If you like the team just bet the team. Unlike basketball where +3, +5, +10 and even +1 or 2 are huge b/c most games come close to the end and there are foul shots that will affect a spread.
My thoughts are if you are going to bet the underdog in the matchup, you might as well just bet it all or most of it on the ML instead of the points. Yes points give you some security but in the NFL, only a small percentage of the time the spread really matters. However, if teams are getting 10 , 11 or 14 that would matter a ton b/c double digit spreads, spread matters a lot b/c more often than not favorite wins but don't cover. In single digit spreads including 9.5, i really don't see the spread mattering that much.
On the top of my head, last year in the playoffs i think the only spread that mattered was the championship game where the Steelers won by 4 and did not cover the 6 or 7 point spread. If you like the favorite to win the game, just take them even in the playoffs b/c i really don't see a favorite winning the game and not covering the spread especially these weekend since the highest point spread is 3.5.
I know this weekend the spreads have a good chance to come in play
Baltimore +6
Jets +7.5
Arizona +7
Dallas +2.5
Now there's a very likely chance the favorite will win a game but not cover the spread because these spreads are on the higher side than previous week. I mean for Dallas to lose the game but lose by 1 or 2 points is not likely to happen. I do think the only game where the spread will matter is the Jets game where they would lose but not by more than 7 though.
I believe that at most 2 times this year will a favorite win the game but not cover the spread b/c 83 percent of the time, the spread does not matter.
Thoughts?
I even noticed that in the regular season, most of the time i bet an underdog, whenever i won, the underdog won straight up. Either that or the dog lost the game.
For the playoffs, we had
Cincy -2.5
Dallas -3.5
New England -3
Green Bay -1
I always hear people from other forums... covers... which is not a good forum, but most people will say something like I love the Jets +2.5 and POSSIBLY OUTRIGHT or Ravens +3 Big and POSSIBLY OUTRIGHT.
Do people not understand if Jet cover the 2.5 the most likely will win the bet a very good majority of the time since it rarely would be Cincy winning by 1 or 2? Same with the Ravens. I mean if Ravens lose by exactly 3 points its a push but more than likely, it won't land on the number. If Ravens cover the 3, they most likely won the game anyways. Most NFL spreads to me almost don't matter. If you like the team just bet the team. Unlike basketball where +3, +5, +10 and even +1 or 2 are huge b/c most games come close to the end and there are foul shots that will affect a spread.
My thoughts are if you are going to bet the underdog in the matchup, you might as well just bet it all or most of it on the ML instead of the points. Yes points give you some security but in the NFL, only a small percentage of the time the spread really matters. However, if teams are getting 10 , 11 or 14 that would matter a ton b/c double digit spreads, spread matters a lot b/c more often than not favorite wins but don't cover. In single digit spreads including 9.5, i really don't see the spread mattering that much.
On the top of my head, last year in the playoffs i think the only spread that mattered was the championship game where the Steelers won by 4 and did not cover the 6 or 7 point spread. If you like the favorite to win the game, just take them even in the playoffs b/c i really don't see a favorite winning the game and not covering the spread especially these weekend since the highest point spread is 3.5.
I know this weekend the spreads have a good chance to come in play
Baltimore +6
Jets +7.5
Arizona +7
Dallas +2.5
Now there's a very likely chance the favorite will win a game but not cover the spread because these spreads are on the higher side than previous week. I mean for Dallas to lose the game but lose by 1 or 2 points is not likely to happen. I do think the only game where the spread will matter is the Jets game where they would lose but not by more than 7 though.
I believe that at most 2 times this year will a favorite win the game but not cover the spread b/c 83 percent of the time, the spread does not matter.
Thoughts?
