I will have all 4 NFL winners this weekend

[Busterflywheel]

Go home cowgirls

[CheeseWhiz]

From the way i understand it, you guys are confused about how he uses the line movement to pick games. I don't think he has an early favorite and then waits 'til the last minute for the line to move and benefit the team he favors.
I think it's more like, he watches the line movement and uses it to determine how the public is betting and who the books are trying to get more action on. Thus determining the true favorite.

It seems you are the one that is confused my friend. I was responding, believe it or not, to the post in which I quoted. It seems he was going off on a tangent in regards the pro's/con's of posting near closing for purposes of beating the CL.
Who the public is tailing is pretty irrelevent, it's where the smart money is playing that can be indication of the true favorite, as you say. While spuratric line movement near closing is often an indication of a sharp play, a steam play is as likely to occur earlier on in the day, and "smart plays"/reverse line movements are best to catch earlier, rather than later, so you don't end up late to the party.

[TheLock]

What is this? Some soap opera? 10 minutes before the games start? Save the drama for the teams.

Did you ever think that maybe he will be watching late line movement?

*whether it be the correct or incorrect strategy?

[TheLock]

You are just as likely to benefit from a line move as you are to have it move against you, and more likely to benefit if you spend anytime watching line movement trends. I got better #'s on every game lasy week except Dal which I had at -4 when some -3.5's popped up.

I promise if you like AZ +7 or NYJ +7 you should buy now because those games are likely to go to 6.5 by kickoff, with a very small chance of a buyback to 7.5. If you like Minny wait and if you like Dallas buy, because the public will obv be all over the boys come gameday.

This is precisely why I pounded Dallas when it opened.

[Tree Rollins]

[quote=CheeseWhiz;2949006]

It seems you are the one that is confused my friend. I was responding, believe it or not, to the post in which I quoted. It seems he was going off on a tangent in regards the pro's/con's of posting near closing for purposes of beating the CL.
Who the public is tailing is pretty irrelevent, it's where the smart money is playing that can be indication of the true favorite, as you say. While spuratric line movement near closing is often an indication of a sharp play, a steam play is as likely to occur earlier on in the day, and "smart plays"/reverse line movements are best to catch earlier, rather than later, so you don't end up late to the party.[/quote

Ok, since the public % is irrelevant. please explain to me how you can determine rlm without knowing the % of the public that is on a certain play.

[moneymaker09]

i'll save you the trouble... saints, cowboys, jets, ravens

ur right on the money

[Totolover1409]

From the way i understand it, you guys are confused about how he uses the line movement to pick games. I don't think he has an early favorite and then waits 'til the last minute for the line to move and benefit the team he favors. I think it's more like, he watches the line movement and uses it to determine how the public is betting and who the books are trying to get more action on. Thus determining the true favorite.

Also known as RLM. Check out the thread

[statnerds]

Forgive my ignorance on the subject gentlemen. was under the impression LB handicapped NFL games. fading the public is always a good strategy as is fading the "smart" money. no such thing as smart money. i suggest everyone find every shred of information of line movements and "smart" money positions throughout the NFL season and you will find the "smart" money finishing down, just like the public.

"smart" money is a fukking myth.

[lakerboy]

Forgive my ignorance on the subject gentlemen. was under the impression LB handicapped NFL games. fading the public is always a good strategy as is fading the "smart" money. no such thing as smart money. i suggest everyone find every shred of information of line movements and "smart" money positions throughout the NFL season and you will find the "smart" money finishing down, just like the public.

"smart" money is a fukking myth.

Not sure what you are implying nerds. Last week i played arizona, baltimore , dallas and cincinatti. I believe cincy was my only loss. They were a public play and they lost. Dallas was a public play and won. The other 2 games the public lost and really got smashed in the packer game. I dont just bet cause the public is on the other side as evidence by my cincy pick. I do use some handicapping but knowing where the books stand is vital cause NFL lines are sharper than any sport. Trying to predict events long term isnt going to bring home the green. As we stand right now i would be playing the saints, cowboys,ravens and chargers. I highly doubt those will all be my final plays. They might end up being but i doubt it.It is well known that sharps win more often than the public, so stating that sharp money is down is foolish. I wait close to game time because of other factors such as injuries, bulletin board material and of course line moves. It will kill me to against zona but i need my money.

[Dexter]

why - you a cards fan LB? thought u were a cowboys fan...

[Busterflywheel]

No LB...Please tell me your not a cowboy fan??

[theplagy]

lol, seen ur shit in college football and nba.

pretty excited

[lakerboy]

why - you a cards fan LB? thought u were a cowboys fan...

no i am a bears fan

I love zona and their style but people just dont realize the whipping they are in for. i just wish people would see what i see on saturday afternoon. the cards have no chance. that game against gb took too much out of them.

[alex81]

LB... I will listen to you before I listen to any "pro"!
That being said this weekend I like Zona ML +250 and Minny/Dallas OVER 45.5. The Cards thrive as the underdog most of the time when they cover as the dog it's cuz they win... These guys didn't make it to the SB for nothing last year!

[SaffaCappa]

I am on the Cowboys, Chargers and Ravens

Undecided in the Zona game, cant wait for your plays LB

[t-wizzle]

I'm actually thinking under in Dal/Min is the play. Being from Philadelphia, I've watched all the eagles games this year. I can tell you firsthand that their defense stinks and the only reason they got away with it was because of weak competition throughout the year. I think that Dallas' offense is overrated after the blowout vs Philly because of this. Other than the Philadelphia games, Dallas put up 17 on Washington, 24 on New Orleans, 24 on a terrible Giants defense, and 17 (with a td at the very end of the game in garbage time) @ home vs. San Diego. Oh by the way they were shut out by Green Bay, the same team that just gave up 51. Now while I will say that the offense has steadily improved since the Green Bay game, it is the Dallas defense that has carried them. I think we will see that great pass rush get after Favre and as we all know Minnesota's running game hasn't been what it was in the first half. Therefore, I will most likely be on the under 46 in this matchup as I expect something along the lines of a 21-17 type game.

[tombrady]

CAN'T WAIT TO SEE YOUR PICK LAKERBOY..... I AM WITH U ALL THE WAY NO MATER WHAT HAPPEN.

[Dexter]

no i am a bears fan

I love zona and their style but people just dont realize the whipping they are in for. i just wish people would see what i see on saturday afternoon. the cards have no chance. that game against gb took too much out of them.

but what if "the books" tell you differently before kickoff? then will you come join me on the dark side? or are you strictly going with how you capped the game out?

[alex81]

I'm actually thinking under in Dal/Min is the play. Being from Philadelphia, I've watched all the eagles games this year. I can tell you firsthand that their defense stinks and the only reason they got away with it was because of weak competition throughout the year. I think that Dallas' offense is overrated after the blowout vs Philly because of this. Other than the Philadelphia games, Dallas put up 17 on Washington, 24 on New Orleans, 24 on a terrible Giants defense, and 17 (with a td at the very end of the game in garbage time) @ home vs. San Diego. Oh by the way they were shut out by Green Bay, the same team that just gave up 51. Now while I will say that the offense has steadily improved since the Green Bay game, it is the Dallas defense that has carried them. I think we will see that great pass rush get after Favre and as we all know Minnesota's running game hasn't been what it was in the first half. Therefore, I will most likely be on the under 46 in this matchup as I expect something along the lines of a 21-17 type game.

I agree with your logic but the main reason I like the OVER is because the game is in Minny. The Vikings have no trouble scoring points. Minny is averaging 32.8 ppg at home this season. I know Dallas has been strong defesively but I think the Cowboys will have to rely on their offense to stay in this one. I think this one will be a 27-24 type of game. I actually teased the OVER to get it at 39.5.

[Tree Rollins]

I am on the Cowboys, Chargers and Ravens

Undecided in the Zona game, cant wait for your plays LB

LB... I will listen to you before I listen to any "pro"!
That being said this weekend I like Zona ML +250 and Minny/Dallas OVER 45.5. The Cards thrive as the underdog most of the time when they cover as the dog it's cuz they win... These guys didn't make it to the SB for nothing last year!

I think that Dallas game goes under. Two tough defenses and two good running teams.

[Slate]

Arizona +7
S Diego -7
Dallas +3
Indy -6

[lakerboy]

but what if "the books" tell you differently before kickoff? then will you come join me on the dark side? or are you strictly going with how you capped the game out?

no if the books tell me different then i will be with you. i listen to the books for sure but i really believe my capping will get me this one just like last week got me zona over square bay.

[TheNFLGuru3]

Lakerboy, I sent you a PM.... let me know if you didnt get it.

[TGoat]

"smart" money is a fukking myth.

Tell that to Billy Walters...

[Eatminus]

Saints, Vikings, Chargers

No idea on Indy game.

[MarkTX]

Arizona +7
S Diego -7
Dallas +3
Indy -6

This is what I am looking at too....

[edlaw]

here's your winners N.O. -6.5/ ravens +7.5/minny -2.5/ s.d. -6.5

[lakerboy]

here's your winners N.O. -6.5/ ravens +7.5/minny -2.5/ s.d. -6.5

try predicting without buying points.

[edlaw]

play-off pix n.o. v.s. minny = n.o. winner colts v.s. s.d.= s.d. winner superbowl; n.o. v.s. s.d. = n.o. superbowl winners

[edlaw]

im getting alternate lines/from my off shore book

[edlaw]

this what there offering mutiple alternate line/and the varation and difference of ml,spread line up or down depending on what spread u take or not take

[Pensinger1]

Forgive my ignorance on the subject gentlemen. was under the impression LB handicapped NFL games. fading the public is always a good strategy as is fading the "smart" money. no such thing as smart money. i suggest everyone find every shred of information of line movements and "smart" money positions throughout the NFL season and you will find the "smart" money finishing down, just like the public.

"smart" money is a fukking myth.

....

[spargament]

Forgive my ignorance on the subject gentlemen. was under the impression LB handicapped NFL games. fading the public is always a good strategy as is fading the "smart" money. no such thing as smart money. i suggest everyone find every shred of information of line movements and "smart" money positions throughout the NFL season and you will find the "smart" money finishing down, just like the public. "smart" money is a fukking myth.

....

[ouman101]

no i am a bears fan I love zona and their style but people just dont realize the whipping they are in for. i just wish people would see what i see on saturday afternoon. the cards have no chance. that game against gb took too much out of them.

Not to mention, that GB has no defense. Not saying that N.O. has a great defense, but GB's D looked flat out pitiful

[statnerds]

I think that Dallas game goes under. Two tough defenses and two good running teams.

minny defense is ass