NFL overs Buried me alive this week

[frostno98]

Going into this week I uncovered an interesting stat. During the last 3 years in the wild card the games went under 8 times, while the over only 4 times.

2007 3-1 under
2008 2-2 split
2009 3-1 under

Those games going under wasn't no fluke, because teams tend to play better defensively, clock management, less turnovers, and refs are less reluctant to blow weak penalties. All that equates to a long and time consuming scoring drive. Exactly the opposite happened on Saturday and Sunday.

Since both games yesterday already went over, I decided to put my theory to the test. I wagered a small amount on the Ravens game going under. If that didn't hit, then I was going under large on the Cardinals. What a disaster that was, the Cardinals single handley covered the 48 over spread. I don't recall seeing all 4 wild card games going over, ever! Lesson here, stats don't mean d1ck when it's the NFL.

[lakerboy]

But go under next week trust me frosty

[Nickelicious]

Funny you should say that, lakerboy, I was looking at the totals and thinking I liked at least three of them to go over. Perhaps I will tread cautiously.

[lakerboy]

Funny you should say that, lakerboy, I was looking at the totals and thinking I liked at least three of them to go over. Perhaps I will tread cautiously.

See nick the thing is next week 4 teams will have more time to prepare and that should lead to better gameplanning. Which games do you like over?

[frostno98]

See nick the thing is next week 4 teams will have more time to prepare and that should lead to better gameplanning. Which games do you like over?

I was thinking the same this week, and something happened that hasn't happened in recent memory with all games going high. This week was very costly for me, by blindly following some very solid NFL stats. I'm done messing with the Totals for the NFL this season. I probably hit maybe 4 out of 20 totals played on Sunday and Monday night this year, yet I still play this crap.

[Nickelicious]

See nick the thing is next week 4 teams will have more time to prepare and that should lead to better gameplanning. Which games do you like over?

One fave is the the Colts/Ravens... I know the Colts struggled a bit with scoring while cruising to home field advantage, but I expect Manning & Co. to get into rhythm by the second quarter and put up points. Flacco was god-awful on Sunday but he didn't have to do too much with Ray Rice dominating the first quarter and the Ravens up 24-0 so quick. The Colts beat Baltimore 17-15 six weeks ago, but they scored 27+ points each week for the next four weeks when it mattered. The Ravens have put up 20+ points the past five weeks. The line went from 44 to 45 pretty quick with some books.

I like the Cowboys and Vikes to go over 46, too. This line dropped right after it came out and I'm not sure why. Favre and Romo should torch it like Warner and Rodgers did last night. I can see three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone.

Speaking of Warner, I don't think he has to cool off next week against the Saints. It's a dome game and between Warner and Brees I can see another shoot out. Can they get over 56? Hell, I can see a 42-28 game real easy in this one.

For that matter, I'm not sure Philip Rivers doesn't go nuts on the Jets next weekend and take that game over 42, too.

But like I said, I will be more cautious based on your thoughts. Let me ask you this: of the 8 defensive coordinators in next weekend's games, who are the most likely to come up with the game planning to stop these offenses from continuing to steamroll the defenses?

[lakerboy]

One fave is the the Colts/Ravens... I know the Colts struggled a bit with scoring while cruising to home field advantage, but I expect Manning & Co. to get into rhythm by the second quarter and put up points. Flacco was god-awful on Sunday but he didn't have to do too much with Ray Rice dominating the first quarter and the Ravens up 24-0 so quick. The Colts beat Baltimore 17-15 six weeks ago, but they scored 27+ points each week for the next four weeks when it mattered. The Ravens have put up 20+ points the past five weeks. The line went from 44 to 45 pretty quick with some books.

I like the Cowboys and Vikes to go over 46, too. This line dropped right after it came out and I'm not sure why. Favre and Romo should torch it like Warner and Rodgers did last night. I can see three touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone.

Speaking of Warner, I don't think he has to cool off next week against the Saints. It's a dome game and between Warner and Brees I can see another shoot out. Can they get over 56? Hell, I can see a 42-28 game real easy in this one.

For that matter, I'm not sure Philip Rivers doesn't go nuts on the Jets next weekend and take that game over 42, too.

But like I said, I will be more cautious based on your thoughts. Let me ask you this: of the 8 defensive coordinators in next weekend's games, who are the most likely to come up with the game planning to stop these offenses from continuing to steamroll the defenses?

Ron Rivera should find a way to hold the jets.
Greg Williams will have answers for zona
Leslie Frazier of the vikes wont have answers for Dallas
Rex Ryan(yes) will find ways to slow down Sd
Greg Mattison of Balty showed a good game plan against indy once and will again
LArry Coyer has done a great job when it has mattered this season
Billy Davis of zona will have his hands full but the saints play different than GB
Phillips has always been a defense first guy. Trust me Favre wont do much against this d

at least 2 of the 4 games will go under maybe 4. the only game i see going over is none

[Jaug]

Again a reminder of the bowl season. First 5 games went over and then it was under, under, under, under, moosed under, under, moosed under ...>>>>>>>>>>

Just bet the under in remaining games of nfl playoffs.

[TT77]

watch next week go all 4 unders

[Rixsaw]

turnovers killed the unders.