Wild Card Weekend Plays (50-25-1 ATS Regular Season)

[kroyrunner89]

We're heading into the playoffs with a 50-25-1 ATS record, in what has certainly been a great season so far. Last year, the playoffs were good to me as I went 6-1 ATS. However, as far as I'm concerned, these numbers are in the past and there is no guarantee that going forward these playoffs will be good to us. So, as usual, let me remind everyone to manage their money wisely and not put more down on these games than they can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed in this business, and past results don't indicate future ones. Hopefully though, we won't have to worry about any negative consequences and we'll have another good playoff round. Here's what I like for Saturday, I'll send out Sunday plays tomorrow night:

• Jets/Bengals UNDER 33.5

I wasn't thrilled to see this number move off of 34, I wasn't quite expecting that, but I'm sticking with this play as I don't think it makes a difference. For starters, the Jets head into a road playoff game with a rookie QB at the helm, who has had problems all year turning the ball over. You can be certain that Sanchez will make a mistake or two in this opening round, which should take some points off the board for the Jets. Also, although they didn't show it last week, the Bengals are an elite defense in the NFL. They are currently the 7th best in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 8th best in yards/rush attempt allowed, one of only three teams to be top 8 in each category. This defense rolled over against the Jets last week, and since the Jets had to win to get in, they were forced to tip their hand a bit. You can be sure that the Bengals will have an answer for Smith lining up in the Wildcat formation, and the Jets' rushing game will not put together a game like they did last week.

On the Bengals side of the ball, points won't be any easier. Chad Ochocinco will be blanketed by Revis all game, a huge problem for the Bengals as he accounts for 1/3 of their yards through the air, and almost half of Palmers' passing touchdowns. Ochocinco will almost certainly be shut down by Revis as most elite receivers have been this year, causing some major issues in the passing game for the Bengals. The other strength of Cinci's this year has been running the ball, and the rushing attack has not looked good in recent weeks. Even if they do show up, the Jets are 5th best in the league in yards/rush attempt allowed, so I doubt we see a ton of production on the ground out of the Bengals here. This game is set up to be very low scoring, and likely will come down to which QB takes better care of the ball. In the end though, I see this being a 13-10 kind of game.

That's it for Saturday, I'm laying off of everything else. Good luck to anyone who places any bets!

[MrMonkey]

Thanks for the insight Kroy and good luck! Thinking Cincy pulls this one out with Palmer being less prone for mistake than Sanchez? Will see!

[frostno98]

Yeah, both have very good defenses and the weather should dictate the passing game.

I can see Chad Johnson and the Bengals being shutdown in this game, and the Jets not being able to move the ball efficiently with a rookie who had problems playing in the cold. Both team should be running alot. This is going to be a punt contest, and the team with best field advantage wins in the end.

[pattymayo]

good luck man, Under looks like a solid play. Cincy's offense has not shown explosiveness pretty much all year, and we all know the Jets will NOT let Sanchez lose the game for them, they will run run run and then playaction pass for quick strikes. Cincy really relies on Cedric Benson also, we could see a lot of long drives back and forth with few scores.

Only thing I'd be afraid of is a late defensive TD or something that burns you late in the game... but I think Under is the best play. good luck buddy

[kroyrunner89]

Got the weekend off to a shaky start with the under in the Jets' game losing, but it's only one play and we have plenty of time to salvage the weekend. With two wild card games to go, here's what I'm liking tomorrow:

• Patriots/Ravens OVER 43
• Ravens +3

If you think back to the middle of the Patriots' season, there were some serious concerns surrounding their secondary. Before their meaningless game against the Texans, the Patriots' defense was looking much better, as they allowed 13.33 ppg over a three game span. However, given the quality of opponents they faced, it certainly is hard to make the case that they've fixed any of their issues. New England faced three teams ranked 21st or worse in yards/pass attempt over this span, so it's hard to read much into the positive results they've had lately. As things stand now, the Patriots have the 22nd worst defense in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed, which Flacco and the Ravens will be able to take advantage of. Furthermore, the Ravens currently are 4th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt, mostly due to the explosive playmaking of Ray Rice. The Patriots run defense is nothing special, ranking 18th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt allowed, so the Ravens should be able to keep the chains moving on the ground as well and put up a good number of points.

When the Patriots have the ball, they should be able to exploit the weak Baltimore secondary. New England is 7th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt, and the Ravens have allowed a whopping 7.65 yards/pass attempt this year against teams that are top 10 in the NFL in this category (6 games). Although the Patriots have lost Welker for the year, Edelman does a good job of filling his role and should be able to match his production fairly well. Against the Ravens' #1 rushing defense, the Patriots will have to focus their attack through the air, something that will both contribute to the over and hurt them I believe. If forced to become one dimensional, although they will still find ways to put up points, I think the Ravens will be able to dial up the pressure on Brady and force him into some mistakes, as he still does not look to be handling pressure too well this first season off of his injury. Points will be there for the Pats, but I don't think it will be enough points when all is said and done. Ravens should take this contest in a higher scoring game than most would think, 31-24.

• Packers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5

This one doesn't require too long of a write up, the reasoning is pretty simple. The Cardinals enter this one allowing 5.61 yards/pass attempt, 5th best among NFL defenses. Although Green Bay tore them up through the air last week, the Cardinals didn't seem too interested in the game, and I doubt they were throwing a very complicated defensive scheme out there. I think Arizona should be able to slow down the Packers' attack through the air, which should effectively limit the number of points the Packers are able to throw on the board. On the Cardinals' side of the ball, they should have trouble generating offense against this solid Green Bay defense. The Packers are 8th best in yards/pass attempt against, and 2nd best in yards/rush attempt against in the NFL, and will frustrate Warner and the Cardinals' offense all game. I think this has the makings of a 24-20 game, which will keep the total under and hopefully seal out a winning day.

That's it for this round, best of luck everyone!

[iMxth3xbossx5000]

I also like Ravens +3. Also riding on the Cardinals ML.

[statnerds]

Kroy -

Like Ravens as well. However, locked in Over 47 on the Pack/Cards. I just see something in the neighborhood of 75 combined pass att in this game. Cards are not going to be able to run the ball. i was concerned about Pack getting a running game going, but if they do, it will be big plays down the field. more passing plays, more free clock stops and an extended game.

nice work this year and GL in the post season.

[ItalianPinoy]

tough one on the bengals game,never expected so many big plays for scores.good calls on the ravens-pats....packers game,too many turnovers early,just lead to high scoring game,good job this weekend kroy.

[ezmoney]

EVERY game went OVER this weekend. Despite good defense by Jets, Dallas, BALT.