NFL Future Bets
Yes, I know by waiting we are losing out on some value but there is still great value to be found before the first playoff game and it gets pretty easy to determine who can get to the Super Bowl. Let's start with odds to win the AFC. Here are the listed odds according to The Greek to win the AFC:
Indianapolis Colts +105
San Diego Chargers +165
New England Patriots +545
Cincincatti Bengals +1215
Baltimore Ravens +1415
New York Jets +2250
I see value in only one number up there; New England +545. I don't think the Jets are going to be able to defend their way through the AFC with a rookie quarterback who loves turning it over. I don't think the Ravens defense is good enough against the pass to stop teams like New Englad, San Diego, and Indianapolis. The Ravens passing defense has really dropped off in just a year. The Bengals +1215 is interesting but it is hard to imagine a team with little post season experience go through the AFC. The Colts and Chargers numbers are too small to warrant a bet but that New England line is nice and fat. A $250 investment gets you just over $1,360 in return and that is a risk I am willing to take.
The Patriots are the most experienced post season team in the AFC field. I know, it's not the textbook Pats team with guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, Troy Brown, and Rodney Harrison but the winning mentality does not leave the team with those guys. The winning mentality is invested into the younger guys and with Brady and Belichek you always have a good shot. Yes, losing Welker hurts but Julian Edelman has filled in for Welker very well this year. He is not as good after the catch as Welker but he seems to have learned from Welker how to get open underneath on plays and is doing the job. The Patriots will not be intimidated by any team they play in the AFC. They already beat the Jets and Ravens, had the Colts dead to rights, and have a history of beating the Chargers in big games.
New England Patriots to win AFC +545 risking 1 Unit
The NFC is much more wide open then the AFC. The AFC is really a 3 horse race while it is easy to imagine and NFC team being able to take the NFC down after the Cardinals and Giants beat the odds in back to back years. We are getting great value on two numbers in the NFC, here are the numbers.
New Orleans Saints +145
Minnesota Vikings +225
Dallas Cowboys +400
Arizona Cardinals +1015
Green Bay Packers +985
Philadelphia Eagles +825
Ok, so the two favorites are Saints and Vikings. Do they really have what it takes to win in the playoffs? Both teams are coming in playing worse football then they were at the beginning of the year. Brad Childress is a very questionable head coach. The Saints defense seems to only get stops when they force turnovers and the running game is soft. I just don't think either of these two teams make it to the Super Bowl. After that I am not willing to take the Cowboys, a team who always chokes in big games and has Tony Romo and Wade Phillips leading the charge and haven't won a playoff game in over a decade. I don't think we see the Cardinals repeat, but the next two are great value numbers. Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are similar, great passing games, great quarterbacks, high pressure defenses, good corners, solid running games, and both teams are hot at the right time. The Eagles closed the year winning 6 of 7. The great part about betting these two teams is they can't play each other until the Conference Championship and if that happens I can free roll to the bank. Both teams will have to play exclusively on the road which doesn't really concern me because Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota, and New Orleans are all dome teams which should mean a nice fast track for two passing offenses.
Green Bay Packers +985 to win NFC risking 1 Unit
Philadelphia Eagles +825 to win NFC risking 1 Unit
Now a lot of these Super Bowl odds look real nice but to me only one is worth playing. Packers arguably are worth a play at just over +1600 but I am fine with the +985 to win the NFC so will lay off.
Chargers to win Super Bowl +385 risking 1 Unit
If New England doesn't get to the Super Bowl for me the Chargers will and my pre-season Super Bowl pick was Packers/Chargers. Should be interesting playoffs.
Yes, I know by waiting we are losing out on some value but there is still great value to be found before the first playoff game and it gets pretty easy to determine who can get to the Super Bowl. Let's start with odds to win the AFC. Here are the listed odds according to The Greek to win the AFC:
Indianapolis Colts +105
San Diego Chargers +165
New England Patriots +545
Cincincatti Bengals +1215
Baltimore Ravens +1415
New York Jets +2250
I see value in only one number up there; New England +545. I don't think the Jets are going to be able to defend their way through the AFC with a rookie quarterback who loves turning it over. I don't think the Ravens defense is good enough against the pass to stop teams like New Englad, San Diego, and Indianapolis. The Ravens passing defense has really dropped off in just a year. The Bengals +1215 is interesting but it is hard to imagine a team with little post season experience go through the AFC. The Colts and Chargers numbers are too small to warrant a bet but that New England line is nice and fat. A $250 investment gets you just over $1,360 in return and that is a risk I am willing to take.
The Patriots are the most experienced post season team in the AFC field. I know, it's not the textbook Pats team with guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, Troy Brown, and Rodney Harrison but the winning mentality does not leave the team with those guys. The winning mentality is invested into the younger guys and with Brady and Belichek you always have a good shot. Yes, losing Welker hurts but Julian Edelman has filled in for Welker very well this year. He is not as good after the catch as Welker but he seems to have learned from Welker how to get open underneath on plays and is doing the job. The Patriots will not be intimidated by any team they play in the AFC. They already beat the Jets and Ravens, had the Colts dead to rights, and have a history of beating the Chargers in big games.
New England Patriots to win AFC +545 risking 1 Unit
The NFC is much more wide open then the AFC. The AFC is really a 3 horse race while it is easy to imagine and NFC team being able to take the NFC down after the Cardinals and Giants beat the odds in back to back years. We are getting great value on two numbers in the NFC, here are the numbers.
New Orleans Saints +145
Minnesota Vikings +225
Dallas Cowboys +400
Arizona Cardinals +1015
Green Bay Packers +985
Philadelphia Eagles +825
Ok, so the two favorites are Saints and Vikings. Do they really have what it takes to win in the playoffs? Both teams are coming in playing worse football then they were at the beginning of the year. Brad Childress is a very questionable head coach. The Saints defense seems to only get stops when they force turnovers and the running game is soft. I just don't think either of these two teams make it to the Super Bowl. After that I am not willing to take the Cowboys, a team who always chokes in big games and has Tony Romo and Wade Phillips leading the charge and haven't won a playoff game in over a decade. I don't think we see the Cardinals repeat, but the next two are great value numbers. Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are similar, great passing games, great quarterbacks, high pressure defenses, good corners, solid running games, and both teams are hot at the right time. The Eagles closed the year winning 6 of 7. The great part about betting these two teams is they can't play each other until the Conference Championship and if that happens I can free roll to the bank. Both teams will have to play exclusively on the road which doesn't really concern me because Arizona, Dallas, Minnesota, and New Orleans are all dome teams which should mean a nice fast track for two passing offenses.
Green Bay Packers +985 to win NFC risking 1 Unit
Philadelphia Eagles +825 to win NFC risking 1 Unit
Now a lot of these Super Bowl odds look real nice but to me only one is worth playing. Packers arguably are worth a play at just over +1600 but I am fine with the +985 to win the NFC so will lay off.
Chargers to win Super Bowl +385 risking 1 Unit
If New England doesn't get to the Super Bowl for me the Chargers will and my pre-season Super Bowl pick was Packers/Chargers. Should be interesting playoffs.