The Pats and the Bengals?

[BigdaddyQH]

Now what? Both New England and Cincinnati are substantial dogs on Sunday. Both have clinched a playoff spot and home field advantage. What is not determined as of yet is who will be the 3 seed and who will be the 4 seed. Does this matter? New England plays an early game, and Cincinnati plays Sunday Night. Will New England give it everything they have in order to secure the #3 seed?

Now if New England wins, Sunday Night becomes a mute point for the Bengals. They get the 4 seed no matter what, so they do not play their starters for more than a series or two. But what happens if New England loses? A Bengals win gives them the #3 seed? Is that worth playing your starters for the entire game?

Any contributions to this quandry will be accepted. Which way go you go if you HAVE to pick winners here. Right now, New England is getting 8 and Cincinnati is getting 10.

[BiffTFinancial]

I can see no reason to give the points there.

Belichick and the Pats rarely, if ever, mail it in, and Houston has been inconsistent against decent teams. Houston has had two big spreads at home this season (-7 vs Seattle, -8 vs Raiders) and blew out both teams. That said, the Pats are a few tiers above those teams, and they are playing for something, even if their motivation will not be as great as the Texans'. A couple of books have Pats at +9 now.

The Bengals are a little trickier due to the timing and the fact that they may have nothing for which to play, but i still like Bengals +10 (though i will not place it until after NE/HOU game, and will not play it if the Pats score the upset). The Bengals are solid dog, period, and there will be both bad weather and Mark Sanchez in the Meadowlands Sunday night. Bengals defense has been one of the best around this season, and i don't see them surrendering more than 17-20 if the 3rd seed is at stake. It will be difficult for the Jets to cover -10 with 17-20 points.

Last week, i loved the Jets +4.5 based upon the theory that the Colts would pull their starters in the second half against such a physical team. However, taking points when you know an offense-heavy team is under-motivated (relative to the dog) is one thing; giving more than a score to teams that have something for which to play (assuming Pats don't pull upset) is another. These teams only have 53 or so players on their roster (assuming perhaps that they use a practice squad player or two here to rest someone). Must-wins are one thing, but there's no such thing as a must-cover.

Gun to my head, i take the dogs. Motivational angles included, i have capped these at both faves winning by a FG. I'll probably play Pats small or medium, then assuming Texans win that one SU, Bengals for same.