Appreciate the write up!
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The case for a Dallas win:
The Saints have had five victories over teams with winning records, with three of those being 7-6, a game against the 4-9 Redskins that they did lose for all intents and purposes (a chipshot missed FG notwithstanding), and also have four "gimme" victories over the Lions, Rams, Bills and Bucs. Those teams have a combined record of 9-43.
Although the Saints started the season on fire with 5 relatively one-sided wins, their defense is still unquestionably suspect. They have actually had 5 close games in the last 7 games (including one against St. Louis) with an impressive game against New England and a blowout against Tampa sprinkled in. Yes, they have scored a lot as they have all year, but only two of these teams had a defense in the top half of the league (New England 7th, Washington 13th). The Saints have the #18 scoring defense in the league giving up 21 pts/game, and throwout the 4 "gimme" games mentioned above and the Saints have given up over 26 points per game which would put them a ridiculous 29th in the league. They have given up over 21 points in a game 8 times.
Dallas has only ONE win against a team with a winning record (Phil), with losses against Giants (2), Denver, Green Bay, and San Diego - all playoff caliber teams. They have had 3 "gimme" victories against Tampa Bay, KC, and Oakland. Their other victories are against Atlanta, Carolina, Washington, and Seattle (mediocre teams).
Dallas' December drought in the Romo era is a media created monster and much overhyped. Last year was basically the only collapse, with this year looking that way so far but still to be determined.
In the Romo era:
2006 1-3 (lost last game of year after clinched playoffs - nothing more to gain), Romo fumbled extra point in Sea playoff game
2007 2-2 (lost last game of year after had clinched homefield throughout) lost to NYGiants, who won Super Bowl, in divisional playoff
2008 1-3 (lost to Pittsburgh, beat Giants, lost to Balt, and crushed by Phil for playoff berth)
2009 0-2 (lost to Giants, San Diego, still win division with three wins and likely make playoffs with two)
The Dallas defense and Romo are playing well.
The Dallas defense is #6 in scoring defense (18 pts/game) and has given up more than 21 only twice (both times to the Giants). San Diego was held to their lowest scoring output this year (20 pts) and the least in the last 18 games (since November of last season).
Let's do away with the "ROMO SUCKS" nonsense for good. Say what you will about Tony "Homo", but he is playing very well and taking care of the ball. He has the third best career passer rating EVER, behind only Peyton Manning and Steve Young. "Well he's never won a playoff game!!" That's right, he's 0-2 with a fumbled extra point - and that's one less than Brees has won in his entire career and in 6 LESS YEARS (who coincidentally? couldn't win a single playoff game in his first five years in San Diego with LT in his prime and Gates scoring dozens of TDs - Rivers has sure done alright with basically the same team - and has only won one in New Orleans on a playoff caliber team also - where is criticism for not being able to win meaningful games?).
Whether you like him or not, Romo is a top 10 QB this year in every category:
He has 7 int, which is tied for 2nd fewest in league with Rivers, McNabb, and Rodgers (one behind Favre who has 6) and less than Brady (11), both Mannings (14,11), Brees (10), Roethlisberger(11), Warner (13). He has had one bad game - 3 int against Giants in week 2 - to go along with 1 int in 4 games, 0 int in 8 games.
Romo doesn't fumble or give up big pass plays in crucial situations, miss tackles on punt returns, drop passes, or miss field goals, which is why the Cowboys are 8-5.
The pressure to remain undefeated is mounting against New Orleans and they have all but wrapped up home field (one win in last 3 basically does it).
Dallas is fighting for their life and has their back against the wall. They are anxious to shed the December rap, which they could do with this one game, and this is the week that they don't miss field goals, don't fumble in their own red zone, and convert in the opponent's red zone.
Dallas will control the clock by running the ball (New Orleans 19th against the run) and shorten the game, the defense will come up with a big play or two and Dallas comes up with the win.
Most importantly, because everyone says they have no chance - the magic words.
Dallas wins 27-23, so "not so fast my friend" on the over.
Dallas ML +270.
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dallas in december never bet on themComment -
You are crazy to be on Dallas with their poor record in December. They cannot beat a team that is playoff caliber either. New Orleans wins this game by 14 or more because their home ATS record is much better than road ATS record.Comment -
Here is some stats I found that brings out my point on this game.
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas.
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas.Comment -
where's the love?
You heard it here first on Tuesday the Cowboys win this game.
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