NFL Week 15-Superbowl Plays

[Dexter]

Round 2:

(6x) cards +7
(4x) ravens +7.5
(4x) vikings -2.5

*waiting on a 4x play on sd....line keeps coming down and will jump on 7 if it gets there. writeups to follow.

[lakerboy]

Round 2:

(6x) cards +7
(4x) ravens +7.5
(4x) vikings -2.5

*waiting on a 4x play on sd....line keeps coming down and will jump on 7 if it gets there. writeups to follow.

Dex im shocked that you are playing zona. That is a huge public play. Everyone thinks the Saints are done. I think they are gonna blow out the Cardinals. The perception is that Zona can score at will but the Saints will be well prepared and healthy finally. Sharper is a very experienced db . The Saints arent going to waste this great season with a one and out. With Zona being at +7 and +104 at pinny it tells me all i need to know. The line for the ravens is good at 7.5. I think they will lose by a fg. Also the cowboys arent going to lose to minny. The Metrodome has been host to some of the biggest playoff choke jobs ever and the master Favre has no luck against Dallas. I dont think he will survive the game. I will be against you on 2 of 3 plays and it looks like 3 of 4 based on your comments on the SD game. Bro good luck to you the games should be great i cant wait until next weekend. Then again if the lines move i might change my mind.

[Dexter]

Dex im shocked that you are playing zona. That is a huge public play. Everyone thinks the Saints are done. I think they are gonna blow out the Cardinals. The perception is that Zona can score at will but the Saints will be well prepared and healthy finally. Sharper is a very experienced db . The Saints arent going to waste this great season with a one and out. With Zona being at +7 and +104 at pinny it tells me all i need to know. The line for the ravens is good at 7.5. I think they will lose by a fg. Also the cowboys arent going to lose to minny. The Metrodome has been host to some of the biggest playoff choke jobs ever and the master Favre has no luck against Dallas. I dont think he will survive the game. I will be against you on 2 of 3 plays and it looks like 3 of 4 based on your comments on the SD game. Bro good luck to you the games should be great i cant wait until next weekend. Then again if the lines move i might change my mind.

what can i say...im a big fat square

so you're likely leaning jets as well? rivas will shut down jackson, but the chargers have many more weapons then the bengals had.

[bobspicks]

Where did u find BALT at +7.5 the most Ive seen is 7 most books are at 6-6.5?

[Dexter]

Where did u find BALT at +7.5 the most Ive seen is 7 most books are at 6-6.5?

i play with locals - though i think 5dimes had 7.5 for a while.....

if you shop, it wont be hard getting a good line fading manning.

[Serbone]

Dex im shocked that you are playing zona. That is a huge public play. Everyone thinks the Saints are done. I think they are gonna blow out the Cardinals. The perception is that Zona can score at will but the Saints will be well prepared and healthy finally. Sharper is a very experienced db . The Saints arent going to waste this great season with a one and out. With Zona being at +7 and +104 at pinny it tells me all i need to know. The line for the ravens is good at 7.5. I think they will lose by a fg. Also the cowboys arent going to lose to minny. The Metrodome has been host to some of the biggest playoff choke jobs ever and the master Favre has no luck against Dallas. I dont think he will survive the game. I will be against you on 2 of 3 plays and it looks like 3 of 4 based on your comments on the SD game. Bro good luck to you the games should be great i cant wait until next weekend. Then again if the lines move i might change my mind.

AZ is public play? Public still thinks of shocking early blow out of Giants when Giants were 5-0 but that turned out to be nothing. They were over glorifed like they were some supeer power all year. BIG SHOCK when Dallas beat them? I do not think so.

When you examine the 3 playoff teams NO beat, you are not impressed: Philly on road not bad, Jets at home, NE at home. And those wins were early in the yr before most of their defensive injuries.

AZ "D" speed on artificial turf indoors will get to Brees. And Warner too crafty to get beat by so-so NO defense. AZ "D" is better than you think, did the job in playofls last yr. They are a team that can turn it on, they slept thru last 5-6 games last yr when they had things pretty well wrapped up in the weak NFC West.

And AZ "O" is better than NO's, do not go by stats, go by when Warner is healthy and motivated. Running game 1,000% better than last yr. If Boldin is healthy, watch out! And you get + 7 with Cardinals!!!

[Dexter]

(4x) chargers -7

*i doubt it gets below this - i'll take it now though there is a chance here in NY that my locals will lower it more with heavy hometown action.

[lakerboy]

AZ is public play? Public still thinks of shocking early blow out of Giants when Giants were 5-0 but that turned out to be nothing. They were over glorifed like they were some supeer power all year. BIG SHOCK when Dallas beat them? I do not think so.

When you examine the 3 playoff teams NO beat, you are not impressed: Philly on road not bad, Jets at home, NE at home. And those wins were early in the yr before most of their defensive injuries.

AZ "D" speed on artificial turf indoors will get to Brees. And Warner too crafty to get beat by so-so NO defense. AZ "D" is better than you think, did the job in playofls last yr. They are a team that can turn it on, they slept thru last 5-6 games last yr when they had things pretty well wrapped up in the weak NFC West.

And AZ "O" is better than NO's, do not go by stats, go by when Warner is healthy and motivated. Running game 1,000% better than last yr. If Boldin is healthy, watch out! And you get + 7 with Cardinals!!!

Bro i respect you alot because you post good insight but the cards are a public play on all sights that show public %- the line will hold stiff all week and the saints will pump them

[shoebox]

with you on the cards dex

[Serbone]

Bro i respect you alot because you post good insight but the cards are a public play on all sights that show public %- the line will hold stiff all week and the saints will pump them

Public is on ALL of the road dogs, THIS WEEK, especially early on.
That is because they just saw them all win and they are getting a lot of points.
Jumps out at them... hey, Jets are getting 8 pts and they just won on the road!
The 4 home teams have byes, which is a big advantage.
As the week progresses, there will be less % of the money on the visiting dogs that just won.
Happens every year.
I think AZ has gone from 76% to 64% already. Other dogs have mostly gone down a lot.
The home teams with byes, well rested, with better records, that coasted the last few games traditionally do well.
I just think that NO was over-touted and over blown all yr after the big Giant blowout and the national TV win over NE and they are still the public team and the line was inflated to begin with because so many LOVE to bet on NO and hope for blowout.

[Dexter]

cards +7

66% of the public are on the cards, yet the line has stayed steady at 7 all week. arz has been rock solid this season as underdogs going 6-0 ats. i do heavily weight momentum coming into the playoffs and the saints have none. stumbling into this mathcup with 3 straight su losses (5 straight ats) - new orleans will have to face the high powered cards offense led by veteran ironman kurt warner. no qb in the league sits in the pocket longer waiting for his receivers to get open then warner. boldin is doubtful but the cards have plenty of weapons to compenstate. new orleans is 26th in the league vs the pass, so warner should be able to get what he wants all day even on the road. i look for b.wells to play an even bigger role this week as the cards play keep away at times to shorten the game vs an explosive saints offense. warner is not done yet. 30-24 cards

[Dexter]

ravens +7.5

the public bet % is dead even on this game at 50/50 - the line opened at 6.5, floated up to 7.5 in some spots and back down to 6.5 right now. here is another example of the favorite coming into the playoffs with no momentum. the colts dropped their last 2 games su/ats and now face a raven team which played them close in balt (2 pt loss) back in november. there is just something about this raven team that makes me feel confident in backing them. their defense is clearly the teams strength ranked 3rd overall and yielding just 16ppg. no receiving corp, but a playmaker at running back in ray rice who is a homerun threat in the run or pass game. flacco has the seasoning from last years playoff run and should keep the mistakes minimal with a savy o-coordinator in cam cameron running the show. the colts covered just 37% of their home games this year. manning moves on but flacco makes him sweat. 23-20 colts

[Dexter]

vikings -2.5

56% of the public is on the cowboys and the line has stayed at 2.5 all week on avg with no major shifts. dallas definitely has the momentum here being the hottest team in the league but face a tall order up in the metrodome. the vikings are 8-0 there this season and are basically asked to just win this game. while minny did slump towards the end of the season they did get back on track vs the giants in the season finale. look for favre to attack dallas's weakness (passing game) and sprinkle in peterson when the time is right. dallas may shut down ap, but if favre is on - peterson should crack a few long runs. look for romo to make a few mistakes while battling the minny home crowd as the vikings move on. 24-20 minny

[Dexter]

chargers -7

51% of the public are on the jets and the line has come down sharply from 9.5 to 7. now i see value on this line with the rested/red hot chargers from san diago. the jets are 1-5 ats the last 3 years vs the afc west, and while i like mark sanchez and his future, the rookie is up against it this week. sd will move the ball at home as the chargers have one of the best offenses in football at 29ppg. while rivas will shut down jackson, the jets still have to deal with gates and sproles out of the backfield. sd's defense - while not stout, should do enough behind the home crowd to force a few mistakes from the rookie sanchez. the jets lost 48-29 last year in sd - for what its worth. 27-13 sd

[solobass]

cards +7

66% of the public are on the cards, yet the line has stayed steady at 7 all week. arz has been rock solid this season as underdogs going 6-0 ats. i do heavily weight momentum coming into the playoffs and the saints have none. stumbling into this mathcup with 3 straight su losses (5 straight ats) - new orleans will have to face the high powered cards offense led by veteran ironman kurt warner. no qb in the league sits in the pocket longer waiting for his receivers to get open then warner. boldin is doubtful but the cards have plenty of weapons to compenstate. new orleans is 26th in the league vs the pass, so warner should be able to get what he wants all day even on the road. i look for b.wells to play an even bigger role this week as the cards play keep away at times to shorten the game vs an explosive saints offense. warner is not done yet. 30-24 cards

about the line.....when it is set @ 7 or 3 (key numbers) it takes a severe swing either way to bump that line. unless 75% or more go on the cards that line is solid and will not move.

chargers win and cover easily that is my biggest play this weekend.

[solobass]

chargers -7

51% of the public are on the jets and the line has come down sharply from 9.5 to 7. now i see value on this line with the rested/red hot chargers from san diago. the jets are 1-5 ats the last 3 years vs the afc west, and while i like mark sanchez and his future, the rookie is up against it this week. sd will move the ball at home as the chargers have one of the best offenses in football at 29ppg. while rivas will shut down jackson, the jets still have to deal with gates and sproles out of the backfield. sd's defense - while not stout, should do enough behind the home crowd to force a few mistakes from the rookie sanchez. the jets lost 48-29 last year in sd - for what its worth. 27-13 sd

believe it or not i think norv turner will find ways to frustrate the jets defense. it is not like rex ryan has mike martz on his staff......and it will show this week. jets will hit a few big plays (being honest about the chargers D) but will fall woefully short. i expect to see some new wrinkles in the chargers run/screen game this week.

[Dexter]

sproles is gonna go for 100 all purpose....

[filter15]

new orleans
Vikings
Jets
Indy

[PAULYPOKER]

Round 2: (6x) cards +7 (4x) ravens +7.5 (4x) vikings -2.5 *waiting on a 4x play on sd....line keeps coming down and will jump on 7 if it gets there. writeups to follow.

All three are the right plays

[Zubi]

Dex, I agree with you. Indy blew their season when they dropped that game to Buffalo.

[Mybologne]

wow dex 6x on cards GL BRO!!!!!!!!!

[Dexter]

yes sir mickey mouse....air warner time in da dome

[jalein]

Round 2:

(6x) cards +7
(4x) ravens +7.5
(4x) vikings -2.5

*waiting on a 4x play on sd....line keeps coming down and will jump on 7 if it gets there. writeups to follow.

BOL Dex.
I like the Baltimore bet. Indy pissed the game away against the Jets and Buffalo. With Indy having a rythmn offense, I just cant see them firing on all cylinders backing in off of a couple of losses. I hope for the coach's sake that they dont pull what they did with a one and done when they were resting their players a few years back, but oh well.

What scares me about the Cards game is the public. Your points about NO not playing well are valid and true. To me it stinks of a set up cuz the general public is on Zona and the general public is eyeballing the Cards shootout last week against GB. Couple that with a NO late season slump and we get what we have now......public on Zona, the line holding on that magic number.....a full 7 points and minimal if any line movement despite the public being on Zona. If it wasnt a set up then the line should have drifted down as time goes on...to say +6.5, then 6. The way I read it, Vegas is trying to get as much money on Zona as possible. I respect your knowledge and opinion which makes me even more torn. My skeptical mind says NO in a romp with a big public Vegas screw. given your reasoning, I may sit this one out.

[Dexter]

check this out - peyton manning is 7-8 in the playoffs...

[Dexter]

those are very valid observations jalein - trust me, i do wish the line dipped down after my play was booked - but i still feel confident this game will be a close one. zona is battle tested....

[kjus1]

Dexter how strong do you feel about Balti +6?

[Dexter]

i still like it at +6...i truly see late game manning heroics...

[PAULYPOKER]

this is the top 10 bets of the day MLs has a bearing factor today
HOLY SHIT BATMAN!!!
#1 Arizona Cardinals -Money Line
RUH! ROH! RAGGY!
#2 Arizona Cardinals - Point Spread
#3 New Orleans Saints - Point Spread
#4 Indianapolis Colts - Point Spread
#5 Baltimore Ravens - Point Spread
#6 Arizona Cardinals - Over
#7 Sacramento Kings - Point Spread
#8 Baltimore Ravens - Money Line
#9 Pittsburgh - Point Spread
#10 New Orleans Saints - Under
Going by what the books want it looks like SAINTS ML&UNDER for sure

I am sad to announce because of the FIXED! FACTOR!
If you are on these below wagers your chances on winning in order from best to worst are
1.saints ML
2.under
3.AZ line
3.saints line

[cgars1]

well boys the public loves the Cards this afternoon...so I fade buy the 1/2 and take the NOS -6.5 (3u)

[cgars1]

as well I will jump on Indy -6.5...public all over the dogs today

[Dexter]

this is the top 10 bets of the day MLs has a bearing factor today
HOLY SHIT BATMAN!!!
#1 Arizona Cardinals -Money Line
RUH! ROH! RAGGY!
#2 Arizona Cardinals - Point Spread
#3 New Orleans Saints - Point Spread
#4 Indianapolis Colts - Point Spread
#5 Baltimore Ravens - Point Spread
#6 Arizona Cardinals - Over
#7 Sacramento Kings - Point Spread
#8 Baltimore Ravens - Money Line
#9 Pittsburgh - Point Spread
#10 New Orleans Saints - Under
Going by what the books want it looks like SAINTS ML&UNDER for sure

I am sad to announce because of the FIXED! FACTOR!
If you are on these below wagers your chances on winning in order from best to worst are
1.saints ML
2.under
3.AZ line
3.saints line

i have no idea what you're saying here pauly...lol

arent you on the cards?

[Dexter]

as well I will jump on Indy -6.5...public all over the dogs today

the "public" is slightly on the colts at 52%

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart

[jaymac82980]

dex, i gotta say, i hear everyone on eachothers jock about how the saints are gonna cover and kill the cards.....

I'll take warner +7 in the playoffs against the aints. i dont care about the line movement. if i bet on line movement i would have taken louisville today, but i knew pitt was the better team and hammered them (close game, but it paid me nicely - and im sorry you were on the wrong side, im just making a point)

cards are on a roll, playing strong, and the saints have been dropping lately. they will lose. Green Bay was a good team that the cards beat, now time to beat the saints - or at least cover

[jaymac82980]

equal plays on cards +7, and cards 1h +4.

[Dexter]

what happened in that game? louisville was up late but i was out and about....anything crazy at the buzzer that i dont wanna know about?