NFL Week 15-Superbowl Plays

[fataliz]

dex, would u suggest a bet on -4 now b4 it jumps?

[Dexter]

hell yeah, i already booked a dime on it.....waiting now for my guys to post a number on the jets/colts....goin jets and the under next week..

[Dexter]

Sunday 1/24:

(10x) saints -4

1/24:

(5x) jets +8
(3x) under jets 41

[kmarinouofm]

not sure how i feel about the saints.. but i am really starting to drink the Jets coolaide.. i will be in nyc next weekend so it will be cool to see the city pumped up for the jets game..

[Dexter]

the public is slightly on the vikes and colts....makes me feel even better about my plays.

[kmarinouofm]

the public is slightly on the vikes and colts....makes me feel even better about my plays.

where do u see that ? sports insight?

i am kinda thinking of only playing the Saints game over.. and the jets +8... i already got an early line on the saints over at 51 when it opened...

[cgars1]

welcome back kmar...good to see u!!! well after a great weekend I should have known sd wasn't going to show up, as well thought about trying to middle it when NYJ went to +10 but didn't pull the trigger...oh well...Dex the public seems to be going back and forth...it will be interesting to see where it ends up...your going to see big money on them jets...they have payed all that have been playin them well and i don't see many jumping off that train...kinda like AZ last year. i like that there getting over 7 and i guarantee that will go below 7 to try to get enough money on both sides...if you like the Jets get it know!!!

[cgars1]

(2u) NOS -3 (-155) on Sunday night but the line is dropping and will add some more units tonight, another (2u) -3 (-130)

[jaymac82980]

i dont know dex, i think the vikings are the better team. i on the favre train. i also think the vikes have the better defense to contain the saints. this should be the best game of the weekend.

i think the colts will cover on their end. the jets wont beat the colts twice, and they wont have painter as the colts QB for the entire 2nd half to come back from a 5 point deficit. colts will do what they were doing a few weeks ago, but this time they will finish it and win by 2 td's.

best bet, tease the games, vikes +10/colts -2

[Busterflywheel]

i dont know dex, i think the vikings are the better team. i on the favre train. i also think the vikes have the better defense to contain the saints. this should be the best game of the weekend.

i think the colts will cover on their end. the jets wont beat the colts twice, and they wont have painter as the colts QB for the entire 2nd half to come back from a 5 point deficit. colts will do what they were doing a few weeks ago, but this time they will finish it and win by 2 td's.

best bet, tease the games, vikes +10/colts -2

I like this tease. And your thesis..I;m on Farve train for many reason as discussed on this board..I cant see it happening any other way..

[Dexter]

so taking a look at line movements for each game and what the public is on:

-58% of the public are on the colts and the line has done what it should going from 7 to 8 on avg. looks like the sharp play in this game is the low. with aprox 55% of the public on the over, the total has dropped from 41 to 39. i got down at a nice soft number here.

-53% of the public are on the vikings and the line has dropped from 4 to 3.5. again, pretty much doing what it should. 70% of the public are on the over, and the total has stayed at 53 all week, with a few 52.5's out there right now. under seems to be the sharp play. i may get down on this if i hit the jets.

thoughts?

[icsky3]

Careful with that Saints over...Could be a 17-14 type of game. Playoff atmosphere, good defense, and good balance between the run and pass could equal a fast game.

[lakerboy]

Jets are not the play. Colts will win by at least 10. The jets arent going to contain Manning he is too quick and too smart. Also this is the game where the Jets are going to have to make some passing plays. The colts were public plays all year long and were covering enough times. I can see this game being close until the jets make the big mistake.

The under in the vikes game may be the best play on the entire board.

[Dexter]

Jets are not the play. Colts will win by at least 10. The jets arent going to contain Manning he is too quick and too smart. Also this is the game where the Jets are going to have to make some passing plays. The colts were public plays all year long and were covering enough times. I can see this game being close until the jets make the big mistake.

The under in the vikes game may be the best play on the entire board.

guess i should rip up my ticket now

[Dexter]

where do u see that ? sports insight?

i am kinda thinking of only playing the Saints game over.. and the jets +8... i already got an early line on the saints over at 51 when it opened...

nah....i use the spread.com and vegasinsider for totals....

[lakerboy]

guess i should rip up my ticket now

- i hope you win thats for sure

[Dexter]

- i hope you win thats for sure

unless the books speak to you in rex ryan lingo tomorrow, no you wont!

[Dexter]

jets +8
under 41

the jets are on fire right now going 7-1 su/ats their last 8. they roll back into indy having won there on 12/27. granted their move was made when manning left the game, but there is something to be said about walking out of a dome like that with a W. NY has the top defense in the league and arguably the best defensive player in the league with Rivas. this is a game of matchups to me and the jets match up very well with indy. the colts can not run the ball, as joe addai is not the player he once was. NY gives up just 150 passing yards per game thanks to rivas basically cutting the field in half for opposing QB's. Wayne should get shut down, and NY's run defense (8th in the NFL) should continue to hold down a weak colts run game. if sanchez plays smart, the jets should cover this number. granted thats a big task for a rookie qb on the road in a loud dome, but i just feel that the colts are not in great form right now. that game last week was much closer then the score would indicate. indy's defense coupled with the jets conservative offensive gameplan should keep this clock ticking fast.

colts - 20
jets - 16

[Dexter]

saints -4

this game boils down to home field advantage for me. if the game were in minny, i would be on the vikings. with the tragedy that happened to new orleans, i can completely envision the saints winning this game for their fans. more importantly, this viking defense is not impressive on the road. in their first 3 road games of the year, the vikings yielded an avg of 14ppg but that was to the rams, browns and lions. in their last 5 road games the vikings have given up an avg of 29ppg. now they come into new orleans having to face arguably the best offense in football which looked like a machine last week at home. the saints defense is not stout by any means, but are 2nd in the league with 26 INT's. i feel confident that Mr. "I can walk on water" Favre will make a few mistakes dealing with the frenzy in new orleans, thus advancing the saints to the superbowl.

saints -31
vikings -17

[lakerboy]

Nice writeups Dexter

[twentyonekid]

good luck dex,...i was looking for info on the total in the saints game and it looks like an under to you,i just hate betting unders

[Dexter]

i love betting unders - the bet is winning unless teams start scoring. watch that clock tick......lol

[cgars1]

nice writeups dex!!!

[dubv1987]

saints -4

this game boils down to home field advantage for me. if the game were in minny, i would be on the vikings. with the tragedy that happened to new orleans, i can completely envision the saints winning this game for their fans. more importantly, this viking defense is not impressive on the road. in their first 3 road games of the year, the vikings yielded an avg of 14ppg but that was to the rams, browns and lions. in their last 5 road games the vikings have given up an avg of 29ppg. now they come into new orleans having to face arguably the best offense in football which looked like a machine last week at home. the saints defense is not stout by any means, but are 2nd in the league with 26 INT's. i feel confident that Mr. "I can walk on water" Favre will make a few mistakes dealing with the frenzy in new orleans, thus advancing the saints to the superbowl.

saints -31
vikings -17

Nice writeup. I think the Saints short passing game will counter the pressure Minny def puts on.

The line is 3 1/2 right now at my book. If I like the Saints should I jump on it now or do you think the money coming in later today could move it to 3?

[Glitch]

the over under in the colts game can go either way because they both have good offenses and good defenses

[Dexter]

haha - one of my bookies just invited me to a party at his bar today for the games. stripper at half time of both games, and a bottle of Grey Goose waiting for me....

[Dexter]

Nice writeup. I think the Saints short passing game will counter the pressure Minny def puts on.

The line is 3 1/2 right now at my book. If I like the Saints should I jump on it now or do you think the money coming in later today could move it to 3?

i really dont think it goes down to 3. i had my projected line on this game at 9, so i think its tremendous value where its at now.

[Dexter]

wow - that was really bad.....a drive like that to come away with no points is terrible.

the jets need to keep in mind that their kicker might pull a keading today. might make decisions easier on 4th and 1-2...

the jets have to attack right now in the passing game....pound the run later. be conservative, but not too conservative....

[Dexter]

i would have ran the ball there and taken the points......but i'll take the 7. gutsy.....

[cgars1]

out with family today and just got in and threw a unit down on some live wagering COLTS ml -250 and added NOS ml -190 for a unit lets go boys good to be home!!!

[cgars1]

and dallas clark scores...yea baby!!!

[Dexter]

ahh - there go all them regular season profits. think im gonna put 1x on the superbowl

[Dexter]

i dont know dex, i think the vikings are the better team. i on the favre train. i also think the vikes have the better defense to contain the saints. this should be the best game of the weekend.

i think the colts will cover on their end. the jets wont beat the colts twice, and they wont have painter as the colts QB for the entire 2nd half to come back from a 5 point deficit. colts will do what they were doing a few weeks ago, but this time they will finish it and win by 2 td's.

best bet, tease the games, vikes +10/colts -2

good for you jay

[Dexter]

Projected Super Bowl Lines:

Saints vs Colts -3 (58)

Vikings vs Colts -3.5 (54)

[Dexter]

classic favre....go retire you attention whore...