Chargers, Broncos both on road in tight AFC West
So what have we learned about the Chargers the past two seasons? Is it that LaDainian Tomlinson is a pretty good running back? No, we already knew that. Is it that Shaun Phillips is a good pass rusher? Again, we knew that. The answer is that we shouldn't give up on San Diego when they get off to slow starts. With a one-game lead now in the AFC West, the Bolts put their win streak on the line in Dallas.
Looks like the San Diego Chargers have done it again, folks.
One season after becoming the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs following a 4-8 start, the Chargers have totally turned things around again this season. San Diego began the season 2-3 and a horrible 1-4 ATS, but has won seven in a row (5-2 ATS) to sit in first place in the NFC West.
Last year’s comeback was more impressive, but this year’s Bolts are a better team – and a more reliable wager. Also, don’t forget just how dominant San Diego has been in December in recent years: The Chargers own the longest December winning streak in league history at 15 games (10-5 ATS) heading into their battle with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
The Chargers are one game ahead of the profitable Denver Broncos, who run into a mighty streak of their own on Sunday when they tangle with the Indianapolis Colts.
Denver at Indianapolis (-7, 44)
Sunday – 1 PM ET, CBS
The suddenly solvent Broncos (8-4, 8-4 ATS) run into arguably the greatest team all-time in NFL regular season play when they meet the Colts (12-0, 8-3-1 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis has won 21 straight games in the regular season dating back to last year, going a bankable 13-6-2 ATS along the way. If they knock off the Broncos on the scoreboard on Sunday, the Colts will eclipse a record set by the rival New England Patriots from 2006-08.
Betting wise, however, this looks like a good matchup for Denver, even if Indy has covered in three straight contests. After looking like a lost child at the county fair in dropping four in a row both SU and against the spread in November, the Broncos have cashed their last two games to get back among the NFL’s sharpest wagers. After waxing the Kansas City Chiefs 44-13 at Arrowhead Stadium last week as 6-point chalk, Denver has outscored its opponents 70-19 since the four-game losing skid.
The Broncos racked up a season-high 245 yards on the ground last Sunday, and will go up against the Bob Sanders-less Colts and their 18th-ranked run defense (111.7 yards against per game) on Sunday. Denver is averaging 154.5 yards rushing per game over its last four games.
Indy is dead last on the ground (87.7 YPG), using Joseph Addai mainly to give Peyton Manning and the passing game a rest. The Colts figure to put up points against any team, but the Broncos are among the clubs that can at least slow them down: Denver comes into Week 14 ranked second in pass defense (180.3 YPG).
San Diego at Dallas (-3, 48½)
Sunday – 4:15 PM ET, CBS
The betting public is all over the surging Chargers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) for their matchup with the Cowboys (8-4, 6-6 ATS) at Cowboys Stadium.
Give oddsmakers credit, because most of them are not moving off the 3-point line set earlier in the week despite heavy action on San Diego: About 70% of plays on the spread have come in on the underdogs according to market data. A few select sportsbooks have the Bolts getting 2.5 points from the Cowboys, a likely harbinger of things to come given the consensus reports.
On top of San Diego’s profitability lately – and in December in recent years – bettors could be simply fading Dallas instead. Quarterback Tony Romo is only 5-9 SU in 14 career December starts, and the Cowboys are struggling at the window recently. Dallas is only 1-3 against the number over its last four games (2-2 SU) following last week’s 31-24 loss against New York (+1) at Giants Stadium.
Considering the Cowboys’ propensity to fade down the stretch and the Chargers’ habit of doing the opposite, look to take the underdogs on the road in this game. Romo went 41-of-55 for 392 yards with three touchdowns last Sunday, but Dallas is more successful when it pounds the run; the Cowboys had only 45 yards rushing against New York.
San Diego will get an added boost if linebacker Shawne Merriman (foot) and defensive end Luis Castillo (calf) return to the mix as expected, while Dallas is likely to be without two of its most important players on Sunday. Tight end Jason Witten (foot) and linebacker DeMarcus Ware (wrist) could be out of the lineup for the Cowboys
So what have we learned about the Chargers the past two seasons? Is it that LaDainian Tomlinson is a pretty good running back? No, we already knew that. Is it that Shaun Phillips is a good pass rusher? Again, we knew that. The answer is that we shouldn't give up on San Diego when they get off to slow starts. With a one-game lead now in the AFC West, the Bolts put their win streak on the line in Dallas.
Looks like the San Diego Chargers have done it again, folks.
One season after becoming the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs following a 4-8 start, the Chargers have totally turned things around again this season. San Diego began the season 2-3 and a horrible 1-4 ATS, but has won seven in a row (5-2 ATS) to sit in first place in the NFC West.
Last year’s comeback was more impressive, but this year’s Bolts are a better team – and a more reliable wager. Also, don’t forget just how dominant San Diego has been in December in recent years: The Chargers own the longest December winning streak in league history at 15 games (10-5 ATS) heading into their battle with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
The Chargers are one game ahead of the profitable Denver Broncos, who run into a mighty streak of their own on Sunday when they tangle with the Indianapolis Colts.
Denver at Indianapolis (-7, 44)
Sunday – 1 PM ET, CBS
The suddenly solvent Broncos (8-4, 8-4 ATS) run into arguably the greatest team all-time in NFL regular season play when they meet the Colts (12-0, 8-3-1 ATS) at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Indianapolis has won 21 straight games in the regular season dating back to last year, going a bankable 13-6-2 ATS along the way. If they knock off the Broncos on the scoreboard on Sunday, the Colts will eclipse a record set by the rival New England Patriots from 2006-08.
Betting wise, however, this looks like a good matchup for Denver, even if Indy has covered in three straight contests. After looking like a lost child at the county fair in dropping four in a row both SU and against the spread in November, the Broncos have cashed their last two games to get back among the NFL’s sharpest wagers. After waxing the Kansas City Chiefs 44-13 at Arrowhead Stadium last week as 6-point chalk, Denver has outscored its opponents 70-19 since the four-game losing skid.
The Broncos racked up a season-high 245 yards on the ground last Sunday, and will go up against the Bob Sanders-less Colts and their 18th-ranked run defense (111.7 yards against per game) on Sunday. Denver is averaging 154.5 yards rushing per game over its last four games.
Indy is dead last on the ground (87.7 YPG), using Joseph Addai mainly to give Peyton Manning and the passing game a rest. The Colts figure to put up points against any team, but the Broncos are among the clubs that can at least slow them down: Denver comes into Week 14 ranked second in pass defense (180.3 YPG).
San Diego at Dallas (-3, 48½)
Sunday – 4:15 PM ET, CBS
The betting public is all over the surging Chargers (9-3, 6-6 ATS) for their matchup with the Cowboys (8-4, 6-6 ATS) at Cowboys Stadium.
Give oddsmakers credit, because most of them are not moving off the 3-point line set earlier in the week despite heavy action on San Diego: About 70% of plays on the spread have come in on the underdogs according to market data. A few select sportsbooks have the Bolts getting 2.5 points from the Cowboys, a likely harbinger of things to come given the consensus reports.
On top of San Diego’s profitability lately – and in December in recent years – bettors could be simply fading Dallas instead. Quarterback Tony Romo is only 5-9 SU in 14 career December starts, and the Cowboys are struggling at the window recently. Dallas is only 1-3 against the number over its last four games (2-2 SU) following last week’s 31-24 loss against New York (+1) at Giants Stadium.
Considering the Cowboys’ propensity to fade down the stretch and the Chargers’ habit of doing the opposite, look to take the underdogs on the road in this game. Romo went 41-of-55 for 392 yards with three touchdowns last Sunday, but Dallas is more successful when it pounds the run; the Cowboys had only 45 yards rushing against New York.
San Diego will get an added boost if linebacker Shawne Merriman (foot) and defensive end Luis Castillo (calf) return to the mix as expected, while Dallas is likely to be without two of its most important players on Sunday. Tight end Jason Witten (foot) and linebacker DeMarcus Ware (wrist) could be out of the lineup for the Cowboys
