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Week 12: What The Sharps Are Thinking
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
We're going up a little early this week because there are three games on Thanksgiving in the NFL. We wanted to make sure you got the information in plenty of time to enjoy full value.
Here's what the sharps are thinking about this week's pro football action based on the early smart money and my discussions with respected sports bettors in Nevada. I greatly appreciate all of you who come back week after week to get this information. I've heard repeatedly that these articles have helped many learn to think like a sharp, and bet legally like a sharp.
As always, games are presented in rotation order...
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: The totals guys hit the Over pretty hard here on the opener. We saw a 46 move all the way up to 47.5. I wouldn't be surprised if the number keeps going up because squares (the general public) like to bet Overs in TV games...and they all know Detroit had a high scoring game with Cleveland last year. This total could really steam on Thursday morning! Sharps who liked the Over bet early to beat the rush. Many of them 'overbet' too knowing they'd buy back some on the Under at a higher number that would allow them to shoot at a middle. You'll see a lot of that Thursday if they can get a common number like 48 in the window. Not much interest in the team side yet. Sharps know the public will hit the favorite on game day. They'll buy some of Detroit at a higher line. Many did that against Tennessee last year and got spanked though. You just never know how the Lions are going to play!
OAKLAND AT DALLAS: Not much interest in this game, though I saw some old school guys take Oakland at +14. We're seeing +13.5 in a few places as we go to press. Generally, sharps will wait for the public to drive a line up. Some wanted to lock in at +14 because that's such a key number. Dallas hasn't covered as favorites the last two weeks, so the public may be less enamored of them than the hotter Packers in the other day game. I expect to see sharp money on Oakland on Thursday, particularly if the line is at +14 or higher by kickoff.
NY GIANTS AT DENVER: Sharps hit the Giants hard at -5, and we're now seeing -7 everywhere at press time. Denver just looked awful last week at home against San Diego. They weren't very good in the second half at Washington after Kyle Orton got hurt either. I was surprised myself the line shot up this high so quickly. Clearly the sharps didn't like what they saw from Denver...and they knew the public would be all over Eli Manning and the Giants on Thursday. Sharps always get the best numbers! I'd expect some buyback on Denver to shoot a middle if the line keeps going up Thursday. I can't believe how fast some of these sharps jumped off the Denver bandwagon.
INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON: We move to Sunday games now. Indianapolis is in a very tough schedule spot having to play on the road after their road war at Baltimore last week...and the thriller with New England the week before. How many more close games can this team win? Well, they're facing a Houston team that seems to find ways to lose close games. The line is hopping between 3 and 3.5, with the obvious sharp action based on the number (favorite -3, dog +3.5). I would expect that to continue through the weekend...with the public probably coming in once again on Indianapolis on game day just like they did last week. The total has dropped a point from 49 down to 48.
CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: We saw some interest on the Over, which has gone up from 37.5 to 39 or so at many places. Brady Quinn looked good last week, and the Browns played a high scoring thriller at Detroit. That's the main influence based on the discussions I've been having with sharps. Also the fact that weather has been mild in the Midwest so far. Nobody's afraid of playing Overs right now across the places that are usually pretty scare. Maybe November weather is waiting until December to arrive this year. No action yet on the team side. Sharps who bet this game Sunday will likely be on the double digit underdog in the Rivalry game. That's their custom. And, dogs have been doing much better in recent weeks.
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: Big move on Minnesota from an opener of 9.5 up to 10.5. Crossing the 10 is a pretty big deal because that's a critical number. This one didn't just cross it, it FLEW past the 10! Minnesota has been naming the score against bad teams. Chicago now looks like a bad team based on how poorly Jay Cutler has played in recent weeks. Chicago has ugly stats, and they haven't even played Minnesota yet. Sharps expect a one-sided game, and wanted to take positions below the key number. They can buy back some on the Bears to try and hit a middle in garbage time once the public jumps on the Brett Favre bandwagon. The public has been rewarded for their love of Favre in recent weeks.
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA: There seemed to be a half-hearted attempt to take positions on Philadelphia at -9. But, the number stalled at 9.5 rather than reaching 10 or more. I think oddsmakers know a flood of money would come in on Washington at +10 based on their solid form of late. They play great defense...and that's a lot of points to give a strong defense. Many sharps won with the Skins plus double digits at Dallas last week. I think the sharps will be on Washington before kickoff, even if we saw a slight move toward Philly on the opener. The total has dropped a tick down from 41 to 40.5.
MIAMI AT BUFFALO: Not much interest in this game yet. The line is sitting at a field goal for the visitors. Sharps don't want to lay that price on the road with a Florida team in northern New York unless they see the weather is going to be nice. It's hard to invest much in Buffalo because the quarterback is so shaky. This may be a relatively dead game betting wise come Sunday. Weather could change that. Or a line move based on public action.
ARIZONA AT TENNESSEE: Our early holiday deadlines this week prevent us from going in depth in this game. Kurt Warner is expected to play. But an official line wasn't up as of press time. Sharps won't get invest in Arizona unless they know he's going to be at 100%. Tennessee has gotten hot lately, and might inspire some sharp money as well. Arizona can rest a bit with a big lead in their weak division. Tennessee is now talking playoffs, and is very unlikely to rest. They might be tired off the Monday Night win at Houston though. Tough game to pick with pure handicapping. I'll be watching syndicate action closely over the weekend to see if somebody knows something. This would be the type of game where that kind of money would hit.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS: The line here opened at Seattle by 2.5 and went to -3 quickly. Some of that may be sportsbooks just refusing to put games in the teaser window (lines that cross both the 3 and the 7) if they don't have to. And, the news that Marc Bulger would be out with a leg fracture was probably an influence as well. Backup Kyle Boller doesn't inspire confidence with sharps. Though, it has to be said that Seattle doesn't inspire much confidence with sharps either! Another low action game most likely this weekend. It might be the lowest action game of all because you have two bad teams with nothing at stake. The public hates games like that.
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA: Strong early action on Atlanta as sharps were taking a position on a 'must win' team playing at home against one of the worst teams in the league. They knew the public would lay the points here, particularly with Tampa Bay losing so badly at home to New Orleans last week. They wanted Atlanta early, knowing they could buy back Tampa Bay later in the week and shoot a middle. I know some guys will be coming back over the top even bigger on the Bucs because they like double digit dogs in divisional rivalry games. It's a smarter strategy to set up middle position though rather than just taking the big dog on game day.
CAROLINA AT NY JETS: This game has been sitting on the openers all week. Sportsbooks will need a lot of action to move off -3. They probably won't get it. The public isn't impressed with the Jets and Mark Sanchez any more. Some New York faithful will bet their team. Sharps I'm sure would jump in on Carolina getting more than a field. I wouldn't be surprised to see Under money come in on game day if there's any sort of weather issue. Sanchez just isn't a cold weather quarterback. Both teams prefer to run if they can.
JACKSONVILLE AT SAN FRANCISCO: Same story here, with the exact same openers of -3 and 41.5 for the home team. It's also an interconference game. It's also a matchup where the public will have trouble betting the favorite based on recent form. It's not a marquee TV game. We're definitely going to have some very active games, and some very dead games this Sunday. I should remind everyone that San Francisco is a virtual 'home' team in Nevada because of its proximity. Locals bet the Raiders and 49ers games and show up ready to root for their guys. A game like this, or Carolina/NY Jets with the New York money will surely top a dead game like Seattle/St. Louis in betting interest. They won't compete with the marquee games Sunday Night and Monday Night though.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: It's interesting to note that sharps didn't take an early position here with the double digit favorite. Maybe they did and sportsbooks didn't want to move the line to -14 knowing the flood of dog money that would come in. Kansas just beat Pittsburgh and Oakland the past two weeks, and now looks poised to be a live divisional dog. San Diego is in a letdown spot off the wins over Denver, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants. I still expect the public to bet San Diego at -13.5...and sharps to come in at +14 or more on the dog. I'm a little surprised position takers weren't more aggressive here. Might mean something.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Ben Roethlisberger is supposedly going to play after suffering what might have been a mild concussion last week. Pittsburgh is downplaying the injury...but you know they have to be careful with a guy like Big Ben who's been hurt before. This is going to be a heavily bet game once a line comes up. Sharps won't be aggressively involved until the Roethlisberger situation has worked itself out. Battles like this often see sharps just taking the points with whoever the underdog turns out to be figuring the game is a true coin flip and any points are value.
NEW ENGLAND AT NEW ORLEANS: Boy is this a game Las Vegas and Reno are looking forward to. There's going to be a ton of betting action, particularly if 'squares' did well with their favorites over the weekend. There will be strong support for either side because the public loves betting New Orleans at home...but also loves taking the Patriots with points. Sharps will probably be on the Patriots...and would definitely step in should the line scoot over a field goal. Sharps bet very heavily on New England +3 at Indianapolis, driving the local lines down to +1 by kickoff. I'm interest to see what happens with the total. The public will want the Over, even at a very high number like 56. A lot of sharps went Under in New England/Indy and regretted it. That took a bite out of what they won with the Pats. What a great finale to Thanksgiving Week!
Week 12: What The Sharps Are Thinking
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH
We're going up a little early this week because there are three games on Thanksgiving in the NFL. We wanted to make sure you got the information in plenty of time to enjoy full value.
Here's what the sharps are thinking about this week's pro football action based on the early smart money and my discussions with respected sports bettors in Nevada. I greatly appreciate all of you who come back week after week to get this information. I've heard repeatedly that these articles have helped many learn to think like a sharp, and bet legally like a sharp.
As always, games are presented in rotation order...
GREEN BAY AT DETROIT: The totals guys hit the Over pretty hard here on the opener. We saw a 46 move all the way up to 47.5. I wouldn't be surprised if the number keeps going up because squares (the general public) like to bet Overs in TV games...and they all know Detroit had a high scoring game with Cleveland last year. This total could really steam on Thursday morning! Sharps who liked the Over bet early to beat the rush. Many of them 'overbet' too knowing they'd buy back some on the Under at a higher number that would allow them to shoot at a middle. You'll see a lot of that Thursday if they can get a common number like 48 in the window. Not much interest in the team side yet. Sharps know the public will hit the favorite on game day. They'll buy some of Detroit at a higher line. Many did that against Tennessee last year and got spanked though. You just never know how the Lions are going to play!
OAKLAND AT DALLAS: Not much interest in this game, though I saw some old school guys take Oakland at +14. We're seeing +13.5 in a few places as we go to press. Generally, sharps will wait for the public to drive a line up. Some wanted to lock in at +14 because that's such a key number. Dallas hasn't covered as favorites the last two weeks, so the public may be less enamored of them than the hotter Packers in the other day game. I expect to see sharp money on Oakland on Thursday, particularly if the line is at +14 or higher by kickoff.
NY GIANTS AT DENVER: Sharps hit the Giants hard at -5, and we're now seeing -7 everywhere at press time. Denver just looked awful last week at home against San Diego. They weren't very good in the second half at Washington after Kyle Orton got hurt either. I was surprised myself the line shot up this high so quickly. Clearly the sharps didn't like what they saw from Denver...and they knew the public would be all over Eli Manning and the Giants on Thursday. Sharps always get the best numbers! I'd expect some buyback on Denver to shoot a middle if the line keeps going up Thursday. I can't believe how fast some of these sharps jumped off the Denver bandwagon.
INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON: We move to Sunday games now. Indianapolis is in a very tough schedule spot having to play on the road after their road war at Baltimore last week...and the thriller with New England the week before. How many more close games can this team win? Well, they're facing a Houston team that seems to find ways to lose close games. The line is hopping between 3 and 3.5, with the obvious sharp action based on the number (favorite -3, dog +3.5). I would expect that to continue through the weekend...with the public probably coming in once again on Indianapolis on game day just like they did last week. The total has dropped a point from 49 down to 48.
CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI: We saw some interest on the Over, which has gone up from 37.5 to 39 or so at many places. Brady Quinn looked good last week, and the Browns played a high scoring thriller at Detroit. That's the main influence based on the discussions I've been having with sharps. Also the fact that weather has been mild in the Midwest so far. Nobody's afraid of playing Overs right now across the places that are usually pretty scare. Maybe November weather is waiting until December to arrive this year. No action yet on the team side. Sharps who bet this game Sunday will likely be on the double digit underdog in the Rivalry game. That's their custom. And, dogs have been doing much better in recent weeks.
CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA: Big move on Minnesota from an opener of 9.5 up to 10.5. Crossing the 10 is a pretty big deal because that's a critical number. This one didn't just cross it, it FLEW past the 10! Minnesota has been naming the score against bad teams. Chicago now looks like a bad team based on how poorly Jay Cutler has played in recent weeks. Chicago has ugly stats, and they haven't even played Minnesota yet. Sharps expect a one-sided game, and wanted to take positions below the key number. They can buy back some on the Bears to try and hit a middle in garbage time once the public jumps on the Brett Favre bandwagon. The public has been rewarded for their love of Favre in recent weeks.
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA: There seemed to be a half-hearted attempt to take positions on Philadelphia at -9. But, the number stalled at 9.5 rather than reaching 10 or more. I think oddsmakers know a flood of money would come in on Washington at +10 based on their solid form of late. They play great defense...and that's a lot of points to give a strong defense. Many sharps won with the Skins plus double digits at Dallas last week. I think the sharps will be on Washington before kickoff, even if we saw a slight move toward Philly on the opener. The total has dropped a tick down from 41 to 40.5.
MIAMI AT BUFFALO: Not much interest in this game yet. The line is sitting at a field goal for the visitors. Sharps don't want to lay that price on the road with a Florida team in northern New York unless they see the weather is going to be nice. It's hard to invest much in Buffalo because the quarterback is so shaky. This may be a relatively dead game betting wise come Sunday. Weather could change that. Or a line move based on public action.
ARIZONA AT TENNESSEE: Our early holiday deadlines this week prevent us from going in depth in this game. Kurt Warner is expected to play. But an official line wasn't up as of press time. Sharps won't get invest in Arizona unless they know he's going to be at 100%. Tennessee has gotten hot lately, and might inspire some sharp money as well. Arizona can rest a bit with a big lead in their weak division. Tennessee is now talking playoffs, and is very unlikely to rest. They might be tired off the Monday Night win at Houston though. Tough game to pick with pure handicapping. I'll be watching syndicate action closely over the weekend to see if somebody knows something. This would be the type of game where that kind of money would hit.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS: The line here opened at Seattle by 2.5 and went to -3 quickly. Some of that may be sportsbooks just refusing to put games in the teaser window (lines that cross both the 3 and the 7) if they don't have to. And, the news that Marc Bulger would be out with a leg fracture was probably an influence as well. Backup Kyle Boller doesn't inspire confidence with sharps. Though, it has to be said that Seattle doesn't inspire much confidence with sharps either! Another low action game most likely this weekend. It might be the lowest action game of all because you have two bad teams with nothing at stake. The public hates games like that.
TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA: Strong early action on Atlanta as sharps were taking a position on a 'must win' team playing at home against one of the worst teams in the league. They knew the public would lay the points here, particularly with Tampa Bay losing so badly at home to New Orleans last week. They wanted Atlanta early, knowing they could buy back Tampa Bay later in the week and shoot a middle. I know some guys will be coming back over the top even bigger on the Bucs because they like double digit dogs in divisional rivalry games. It's a smarter strategy to set up middle position though rather than just taking the big dog on game day.
CAROLINA AT NY JETS: This game has been sitting on the openers all week. Sportsbooks will need a lot of action to move off -3. They probably won't get it. The public isn't impressed with the Jets and Mark Sanchez any more. Some New York faithful will bet their team. Sharps I'm sure would jump in on Carolina getting more than a field. I wouldn't be surprised to see Under money come in on game day if there's any sort of weather issue. Sanchez just isn't a cold weather quarterback. Both teams prefer to run if they can.
JACKSONVILLE AT SAN FRANCISCO: Same story here, with the exact same openers of -3 and 41.5 for the home team. It's also an interconference game. It's also a matchup where the public will have trouble betting the favorite based on recent form. It's not a marquee TV game. We're definitely going to have some very active games, and some very dead games this Sunday. I should remind everyone that San Francisco is a virtual 'home' team in Nevada because of its proximity. Locals bet the Raiders and 49ers games and show up ready to root for their guys. A game like this, or Carolina/NY Jets with the New York money will surely top a dead game like Seattle/St. Louis in betting interest. They won't compete with the marquee games Sunday Night and Monday Night though.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO: It's interesting to note that sharps didn't take an early position here with the double digit favorite. Maybe they did and sportsbooks didn't want to move the line to -14 knowing the flood of dog money that would come in. Kansas just beat Pittsburgh and Oakland the past two weeks, and now looks poised to be a live divisional dog. San Diego is in a letdown spot off the wins over Denver, Philadelphia, and the NY Giants. I still expect the public to bet San Diego at -13.5...and sharps to come in at +14 or more on the dog. I'm a little surprised position takers weren't more aggressive here. Might mean something.
PITTSBURGH AT BALTIMORE: Ben Roethlisberger is supposedly going to play after suffering what might have been a mild concussion last week. Pittsburgh is downplaying the injury...but you know they have to be careful with a guy like Big Ben who's been hurt before. This is going to be a heavily bet game once a line comes up. Sharps won't be aggressively involved until the Roethlisberger situation has worked itself out. Battles like this often see sharps just taking the points with whoever the underdog turns out to be figuring the game is a true coin flip and any points are value.
NEW ENGLAND AT NEW ORLEANS: Boy is this a game Las Vegas and Reno are looking forward to. There's going to be a ton of betting action, particularly if 'squares' did well with their favorites over the weekend. There will be strong support for either side because the public loves betting New Orleans at home...but also loves taking the Patriots with points. Sharps will probably be on the Patriots...and would definitely step in should the line scoot over a field goal. Sharps bet very heavily on New England +3 at Indianapolis, driving the local lines down to +1 by kickoff. I'm interest to see what happens with the total. The public will want the Over, even at a very high number like 56. A lot of sharps went Under in New England/Indy and regretted it. That took a bite out of what they won with the Pats. What a great finale to Thanksgiving Week!