The NFL’s 2009 Thanksgiving Day card doesn’t feature the most attractive slate of teams, but the betting lines are interesting. SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak and industry vet Al McMordie chatted on Wednesday, examining the games and looking for possible value.
Detroit opens up the day as a 10.5-point home dog to Green Bay in a game where both teams are dealing with several key injuries. The betting action has been very light on this one so far, with neither the public nor the sharps eager to bite on either side.
The Lions have gotten blown out in their Thanksgiving Day games in recent years, and this year their prospects are once again not looking too promising. Green Bay’s surging offense put up 30 points last week against San Francisco’s quality defense, while Detroit’s low-rated D is coming off a week where they gave up 37 points to Cleveland, a team that had been held to under 10 points in 6 of their 9 other games this year.
And the Lions look like they might be facing another big mismatch when they have the ball. Starting QB Matt Stafford is injured and likely out for this game, and top offensive threat WR Calvin Johnson is also hurting. The Packers’ D has been top-rated all year long and should still be good despite losing 2 key starters to injury last week.
Still, double digits can be a lot for a road team to cover in a high-profile game on a short week.
Game #2 also involves a double-digit spread, with Oakland getting 13.5 points going into Dallas. The Raiders got a boost last week when they replaced notoriously struggling QB Jamarcus Russell with unflashy but steady Bruce Gradkowski, which produced an upset win over heavily-favored Cincinnati.
As much as Oakland surprised with good play last week, the Cowboys floundered. Dallas eked out an iffy 7-6 win at home as a double-digit fave over Washington, a mediocre team with clear weaknesses and injury issues.
If the Raiders can repeat the effective run-oriented efficient effort they gave last week, it will take a huge improvement by Dallas to cover the big spread.
The last game of the day presents the best betting opportunity according to both Loshak and Al, as well as the sharper accounts at BookMaker.
The Giants are a 7-point fave on the road at Denver, despite having lost 5 games in a row ATS. The Broncos are on their own ATS losing streak at 4, and are coming off of a bad home loss last week to San Diego where they had big problems at QB due to an injury to starter Kyle Orton.
This week, Orton is scheduled to play the whole game, but Loshak shows a few pictures of Orton for bettors to keep in mind when deciding whether or not to bet on Denver.