Dolphins swim north to meet Carolina Panthers
Thursday, November 19, 2009
By: Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Miami Dolphins may be without running back Ronnie Brown tonight but look for that to make them mix it up more when visiting the Carolina Panthers. In this battle of 4-5 teams, each squad was victorious this past Sunday and it could be a season-deciding clash tonight for who continues on with another win and gets back to a .500 record in a Thursday night NFL special from BkofAma Stadium.
Both the Dolphins and Panthers were among teams in the NFL that struggled when the season began in September and have had similar patterns of improvement since. Each started the season 0-3 but business picked up in the standings once midseason form hit and they both come into tonight having won four of their last six games.
On Sunday, Carolina got a very uplifting 28-19 win for their season over the Atlanta Falcons at home who they had lost to back in Week 2 on the road. The Panthers had struggled all season with turnovers, but it was finally a game where that battle was won by them as quarterback Jake Delhomme threw no interceptions and the rest of the team did not fumble.
It was also impressive with Carolina scoring three touchdowns out of three trips to the red zone against the Falcons. The short game on offense proved to mean the most as it was Steve Smith catching two passes inside the five yard line for scores and Jonathan Stewart also having a big day carrying in one touchdown from the one yard line, and ending the game with a 45-yard run for some late insurance points getting the Panthers ahead by nine.
Although getting to play this Thursday night contest tonight at home off of short rest from Sunday will favor Carolina, you have to wonder what will happen when a better rushing defense than the Falcons is faced. The Dolphins rank seventh in the NFL in yards given up per game on the ground allowing only 98 yards on average and this could mean a much tougher night for the Panthers backfield tandem of Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Both backs are also questionable for tonight’s game which could affect depth on offense even moreso for Carolins should one of them have to miss.
A bigger concern for the Dolphins on defense could be stopping the passing game as they have given up an average of 243 yards per game – putting them in league’s bottom five there. However, I am willing to draw a line through this as they have faced some very high-powered offenses in defeats to the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, and New Orleans Saints. Even with the Panthers beginning to find themselves more recently compared to how the season began for them, it is clearly an easier offense to contain than some of these opponents faced by the Dolphins throughout the season.
Linebacker Joey Porter also returns to the Dolphins lineup after being benched in this past Sunday’s game. Due to this, I expect Delhomme and the Panthers to face a bigger pash rush than they did against the Falcons which could cause problems moving the ball and turnovers. The Panthers will be without starting offensive tackle Jordan Gross for the first time this season which could mean a sack or two for Porter and the Dolphins.
With Ronnie Brown being out, Miami could have some question marks on offense as to how they can make up for his presence. It could affect the “Wildcat” offense and formations involved with it as Brown has been the big star there both last year and this season. Note though that as much of a weapon as Brown has been this season and last, it is interesting that he has not scored a touchdown in any of Miami’s four road games. Perhaps having him out may not be the worst thing to see what the rest of the offense can bring to the table tonight – including Ricky Williams.
Williams looks to now be ready for leading up the running game for the Dolphins tonight as he gained 102 yards last week in a close 25-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has certainly had his up’s and down’s over the years but when he is on the big national television stage tonight as Miami’s lead weapon in the backfield, it could be lights out for the Panthers defense as he will be really up for this game.
I also feel special teams will play a role in this game on both sides which should make this a close game as field position could be at a premium. Both the Dolphins and Panthers average some of the highest punting yards in the league and this could make both offenses have to start deeper in their own end than usual. While the punting game should even out for both teams over the course of the night, Miami has more of an edge over Carolina with kickoff returns as wide receiver Ted Ginn has taken two kickoffs back for touchdowns this year and has averaged over 29 yards per return. All it could take is one big runback by Miami to help set up a nice scoring drive and get them a victory.
The line for tonight’s matchup opened with the Panthers being favored by a flat three points at Bookmaker and quickly went up to 3 ½ points there on Sunday night. Several other sportsbooks then opened the Panthers as a 3 ½-point favorite but the line has now settled into being three points with heavy juice. Generally when you start seeing lines like -3 (-130) at a sportsbook, the bookie is trying to tell you what side they do not want action on. It basically forces someone to buy the hook when they may not need to.
While the -3 (-130) could prevent large wagers from coming in on Carolina, it will not stop the recreational Thursday night chaser from laying a few bucks on what they will think is a sure thing. With Carolina off an impressive home win and getting to host a game Thursday with the visiting team having a star running back out, I expect most of the action go Carolina’s way here. So be sure to keep an eye on a line service like SBRodds.com and see if the line gets even more favorable for the Dolphins.
I feel that the situational spot tonight could also be a letdown for the Panthers as their win on Sunday was against a divisional opponent like the Falcons who previously beat them. Prior to that, the Panthers faced the undefeated Saints who have been not only atop the NFC South but the whole league, in general. Given these factors, suddenly hosting a mid-week out of conference game could have Carolina out of its element and taking the Dolphins too lightly as an opponent – both emotionally and physically.
With the Dolphins coming off such a close win against the lowly Buccaneers, it helps in their emotions not being overconfident tonight or in a letdown spot. I look for a solid game from Miami and for them to be more focused than Carolina will be on both sides of the ball. Three points may even come in handy here as it is the type of game that could come down to the last possession, as well as a final field goal that puts either team up by only one or two points.
Tune into NFL Network after getting your Thursday reloads in, and take the road-dog Dolphins here.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
By: Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
The Miami Dolphins may be without running back Ronnie Brown tonight but look for that to make them mix it up more when visiting the Carolina Panthers. In this battle of 4-5 teams, each squad was victorious this past Sunday and it could be a season-deciding clash tonight for who continues on with another win and gets back to a .500 record in a Thursday night NFL special from BkofAma Stadium.
Both the Dolphins and Panthers were among teams in the NFL that struggled when the season began in September and have had similar patterns of improvement since. Each started the season 0-3 but business picked up in the standings once midseason form hit and they both come into tonight having won four of their last six games.
On Sunday, Carolina got a very uplifting 28-19 win for their season over the Atlanta Falcons at home who they had lost to back in Week 2 on the road. The Panthers had struggled all season with turnovers, but it was finally a game where that battle was won by them as quarterback Jake Delhomme threw no interceptions and the rest of the team did not fumble.
It was also impressive with Carolina scoring three touchdowns out of three trips to the red zone against the Falcons. The short game on offense proved to mean the most as it was Steve Smith catching two passes inside the five yard line for scores and Jonathan Stewart also having a big day carrying in one touchdown from the one yard line, and ending the game with a 45-yard run for some late insurance points getting the Panthers ahead by nine.
Although getting to play this Thursday night contest tonight at home off of short rest from Sunday will favor Carolina, you have to wonder what will happen when a better rushing defense than the Falcons is faced. The Dolphins rank seventh in the NFL in yards given up per game on the ground allowing only 98 yards on average and this could mean a much tougher night for the Panthers backfield tandem of Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Both backs are also questionable for tonight’s game which could affect depth on offense even moreso for Carolins should one of them have to miss.
A bigger concern for the Dolphins on defense could be stopping the passing game as they have given up an average of 243 yards per game – putting them in league’s bottom five there. However, I am willing to draw a line through this as they have faced some very high-powered offenses in defeats to the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, and New Orleans Saints. Even with the Panthers beginning to find themselves more recently compared to how the season began for them, it is clearly an easier offense to contain than some of these opponents faced by the Dolphins throughout the season.
Linebacker Joey Porter also returns to the Dolphins lineup after being benched in this past Sunday’s game. Due to this, I expect Delhomme and the Panthers to face a bigger pash rush than they did against the Falcons which could cause problems moving the ball and turnovers. The Panthers will be without starting offensive tackle Jordan Gross for the first time this season which could mean a sack or two for Porter and the Dolphins.
With Ronnie Brown being out, Miami could have some question marks on offense as to how they can make up for his presence. It could affect the “Wildcat” offense and formations involved with it as Brown has been the big star there both last year and this season. Note though that as much of a weapon as Brown has been this season and last, it is interesting that he has not scored a touchdown in any of Miami’s four road games. Perhaps having him out may not be the worst thing to see what the rest of the offense can bring to the table tonight – including Ricky Williams.
Williams looks to now be ready for leading up the running game for the Dolphins tonight as he gained 102 yards last week in a close 25-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has certainly had his up’s and down’s over the years but when he is on the big national television stage tonight as Miami’s lead weapon in the backfield, it could be lights out for the Panthers defense as he will be really up for this game.
I also feel special teams will play a role in this game on both sides which should make this a close game as field position could be at a premium. Both the Dolphins and Panthers average some of the highest punting yards in the league and this could make both offenses have to start deeper in their own end than usual. While the punting game should even out for both teams over the course of the night, Miami has more of an edge over Carolina with kickoff returns as wide receiver Ted Ginn has taken two kickoffs back for touchdowns this year and has averaged over 29 yards per return. All it could take is one big runback by Miami to help set up a nice scoring drive and get them a victory.
The line for tonight’s matchup opened with the Panthers being favored by a flat three points at Bookmaker and quickly went up to 3 ½ points there on Sunday night. Several other sportsbooks then opened the Panthers as a 3 ½-point favorite but the line has now settled into being three points with heavy juice. Generally when you start seeing lines like -3 (-130) at a sportsbook, the bookie is trying to tell you what side they do not want action on. It basically forces someone to buy the hook when they may not need to.
While the -3 (-130) could prevent large wagers from coming in on Carolina, it will not stop the recreational Thursday night chaser from laying a few bucks on what they will think is a sure thing. With Carolina off an impressive home win and getting to host a game Thursday with the visiting team having a star running back out, I expect most of the action go Carolina’s way here. So be sure to keep an eye on a line service like SBRodds.com and see if the line gets even more favorable for the Dolphins.
I feel that the situational spot tonight could also be a letdown for the Panthers as their win on Sunday was against a divisional opponent like the Falcons who previously beat them. Prior to that, the Panthers faced the undefeated Saints who have been not only atop the NFC South but the whole league, in general. Given these factors, suddenly hosting a mid-week out of conference game could have Carolina out of its element and taking the Dolphins too lightly as an opponent – both emotionally and physically.
With the Dolphins coming off such a close win against the lowly Buccaneers, it helps in their emotions not being overconfident tonight or in a letdown spot. I look for a solid game from Miami and for them to be more focused than Carolina will be on both sides of the ball. Three points may even come in handy here as it is the type of game that could come down to the last possession, as well as a final field goal that puts either team up by only one or two points.
Tune into NFL Network after getting your Thursday reloads in, and take the road-dog Dolphins here.
