Broncos host Chargers in NFC West showdown
Talk about an abrupt turnaround. Three straight losses stain Denver's ledger after their 6-0 start to the 2009 season and the Broncos might have to go with their second stringer at quarterback this Sunday when they host the San Diego Chargers with the NFC West lead on the line. Philip Rivers and the Bolts head to the Mile High City riding a four-game winning streak and averaging over 28 points their last four.
Okay, now Denver Broncos fans can panic.
What began as a dream season for Denver is turning into a nightmare. A perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record has been spoiled by three straight losses, and just as they did last year, the San Diego Chargers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) are threatening to rise from the dead and take Denver’s place atop the AFC West.
It was one thing for the Broncos to come up short against the Baltimore Ravens (-4½) on the road, and there was no shame in falling to the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at home. But all the goodwill Denver stored up before the bye week is out the window.
Not only did the Broncos lose 27-17 to the lowly Washington Redskins (+3½) this past Sunday, they also lost QB Kyle Orton to a sprained left ankle. He left the game at the half with Denver up 17-14. Chris Simms took over from there and went 3-for-13 with an interception. And there’s your ball game.
This is an intriguing betting situation to say the least. Reports were mixed at press time regarding Orton’s status for this Sunday’s matchup (4:15 p.m. ET, CBS). The Associated Press quoted Broncos coach Josh McDaniels as saying the team wouldn’t know anything until later in the week.
But Michael Lombardi at the NFL Network says the plan is for Orton to play, simply because Simms was so ineffective in relief against Washington. McDaniels was an assistant coach with the New England Patriots under spymaster Bill Belichick, so whatever McDaniels says to the press about his quarterback cannot be taken at face value.
It’s enough of a mystery at this point that only a handful of books were willing to post early betting odds of Denver +3 with a total of 45. That’s quite a reversal of fortune from Week 6, when the Broncos went into the former Jack Murphy Stadium as 3½-point underdogs and left with a 34-23 victory. Interestingly, the total has remained the same for the rematch, although there could be some significant variation on this number from book to book until more is known about the Orton situation.
There are other factors at work behind Denver’s demise than just the quarterback, and they happen to be in the two areas that I love to preach about: the offensive line and special teams. This is where NFL handicappers find value in a marketplace fixated on skill players.
The Broncos have been operating without right tackle Ryan Harris, who dislocated two toes on his right foot in the Baltimore loss. Tyler Polumbus has done reasonably well in relief, but over at left guard, Ben Hamilton has lost his starting job to Russ Hochstein. This group has yet to develop any cohesion, and the Broncos haven’t rushed for 100 yards in a game since they faced the Chargers.
And then you have the special teams. Denver had egg on its face after Washington scored a touchdown on a fake punt attempt – and not a very convincing fake, either. The Broncos went into Week 10 ranked No. 28 in special teams efficiency at Football Outsiders, with poor coverage being one of the sore spots. The Chargers were only ranked No. 23 overall, but they happen to have a solid return game with Darren Sproles handling both kick-offs (24.9 yards per return) and punts (10.7 yards and a TD).
While the Broncos have lost three in a row, San Diego has been busy rattling off four straight wins at 3-1 ATS, starting with a pair of tomato cans in the Kansas City Chiefs (+5½) and Oakland Raiders (+16), then moving up to the NFC East heavyweights in the New York Giants (-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (+1). The Chargers took advantage of some injuries in the secondaries of both the Giants and Eagles; Denver has been a solid defensive team thus far, driving the 'under' to a 7-2 record. The Week 6 Broncos-Chargers matchup went 'over', but this time they’ll have to play at high altitude with a chance of rain or even snow. Yes, it’s that time of year again.
Talk about an abrupt turnaround. Three straight losses stain Denver's ledger after their 6-0 start to the 2009 season and the Broncos might have to go with their second stringer at quarterback this Sunday when they host the San Diego Chargers with the NFC West lead on the line. Philip Rivers and the Bolts head to the Mile High City riding a four-game winning streak and averaging over 28 points their last four.
Okay, now Denver Broncos fans can panic.
What began as a dream season for Denver is turning into a nightmare. A perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record has been spoiled by three straight losses, and just as they did last year, the San Diego Chargers (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) are threatening to rise from the dead and take Denver’s place atop the AFC West.
It was one thing for the Broncos to come up short against the Baltimore Ravens (-4½) on the road, and there was no shame in falling to the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at home. But all the goodwill Denver stored up before the bye week is out the window.
Not only did the Broncos lose 27-17 to the lowly Washington Redskins (+3½) this past Sunday, they also lost QB Kyle Orton to a sprained left ankle. He left the game at the half with Denver up 17-14. Chris Simms took over from there and went 3-for-13 with an interception. And there’s your ball game.
This is an intriguing betting situation to say the least. Reports were mixed at press time regarding Orton’s status for this Sunday’s matchup (4:15 p.m. ET, CBS). The Associated Press quoted Broncos coach Josh McDaniels as saying the team wouldn’t know anything until later in the week.
But Michael Lombardi at the NFL Network says the plan is for Orton to play, simply because Simms was so ineffective in relief against Washington. McDaniels was an assistant coach with the New England Patriots under spymaster Bill Belichick, so whatever McDaniels says to the press about his quarterback cannot be taken at face value.
It’s enough of a mystery at this point that only a handful of books were willing to post early betting odds of Denver +3 with a total of 45. That’s quite a reversal of fortune from Week 6, when the Broncos went into the former Jack Murphy Stadium as 3½-point underdogs and left with a 34-23 victory. Interestingly, the total has remained the same for the rematch, although there could be some significant variation on this number from book to book until more is known about the Orton situation.
There are other factors at work behind Denver’s demise than just the quarterback, and they happen to be in the two areas that I love to preach about: the offensive line and special teams. This is where NFL handicappers find value in a marketplace fixated on skill players.
The Broncos have been operating without right tackle Ryan Harris, who dislocated two toes on his right foot in the Baltimore loss. Tyler Polumbus has done reasonably well in relief, but over at left guard, Ben Hamilton has lost his starting job to Russ Hochstein. This group has yet to develop any cohesion, and the Broncos haven’t rushed for 100 yards in a game since they faced the Chargers.
And then you have the special teams. Denver had egg on its face after Washington scored a touchdown on a fake punt attempt – and not a very convincing fake, either. The Broncos went into Week 10 ranked No. 28 in special teams efficiency at Football Outsiders, with poor coverage being one of the sore spots. The Chargers were only ranked No. 23 overall, but they happen to have a solid return game with Darren Sproles handling both kick-offs (24.9 yards per return) and punts (10.7 yards and a TD).
While the Broncos have lost three in a row, San Diego has been busy rattling off four straight wins at 3-1 ATS, starting with a pair of tomato cans in the Kansas City Chiefs (+5½) and Oakland Raiders (+16), then moving up to the NFC East heavyweights in the New York Giants (-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (+1). The Chargers took advantage of some injuries in the secondaries of both the Giants and Eagles; Denver has been a solid defensive team thus far, driving the 'under' to a 7-2 record. The Week 6 Broncos-Chargers matchup went 'over', but this time they’ll have to play at high altitude with a chance of rain or even snow. Yes, it’s that time of year again.
