Three Solid Picks for Week 10 w/write-ups
NO -14.
New Orleans has had to come from behind in at least 2 of the last 3 games. The Atlanta game came down to the wire too. This is one of the reasons that this line is so low. There is probably less disparity between Minnesota and Detroit then between NO and STL. That line is set at 17. I believe the Saints have a lot to play for - home field, perfect season, team record for highest wins to start a season etc., Given the events of the past few weeks, they will not treat this game lightly. Look for them to come out aggressively to put the Rams away quickly and decisively. Also, by jumping to a quick lead, they neutralize the Rams' only threat, Stephen Jackson, as Bulger will find himself throwing more to play catch-up. If this scenario unfolds and you are on the Saints, you can rest easy by half time. If not, look for the Saints to inevitably pull away in the second half. Either way, Saints -14 is a gift. Saints will Cover just as all the other elite teams have against the Rams (by a wide margin to boot). Don't overthink this one. Sometimes it is just as easy as it seems.
Dallas -3
Another case where bettors are over-analyzing and not taking the obvious choice. Interestingly, if the line had been -6 or -7 Dallas, I think a lot more people would have taken Dallas. Let me explain. To anyone who knows any thing about football, GB has some obvious disadvantages in areas such as special teams and offensive line. The defense is overrated as well - how do you let TB, one of the league's most horrendous teams, score 20 unanswered points in the 4th quarter when you have a 10 point lead with 10 mins to go? Green Bay is an overrated team that probably will not beat a team with a winning record for the rest of the season. Dallas, on the other hand, is a balanced team which is peaking at the right time. I think Dallas will win the field position battle (superior special teams) and the 'turnover' battle (Ware will have a monster day). Look for Dallas offense to take advantage of good field position to score frequently just as Minnesota did. Look for the defense to take advantage of the the poor GB offensive line and Aaron Roger's propensity for holding the ball too long. I think Vegas is baiting people into thinking GB will make this a decent contest. Also, one bit of historical info that probably doesn't count for much: The Cowboys have had the Packers number since the Aikman-Favre era.
NE Moneyline
This one is probably a toss up and too close to call. However, I look for the Patriots to take advantage of the Colts' injuries on defense. Also, Indy is now on a 17 regular season game winning streak. In the last couple of weeks, they appear to have been holding on by a thread. The gravity of extending the streak seems to have made this team a little tight. Also, injuries are taking their toll. SF and Houston are not in the same league as NE so I think this is the week that Indy finally loses. It may actually be good for them - to get that all important first loss out of the way ;-)
New Orleans has had to come from behind in at least 2 of the last 3 games. The Atlanta game came down to the wire too. This is one of the reasons that this line is so low. There is probably less disparity between Minnesota and Detroit then between NO and STL. That line is set at 17. I believe the Saints have a lot to play for - home field, perfect season, team record for highest wins to start a season etc., Given the events of the past few weeks, they will not treat this game lightly. Look for them to come out aggressively to put the Rams away quickly and decisively. Also, by jumping to a quick lead, they neutralize the Rams' only threat, Stephen Jackson, as Bulger will find himself throwing more to play catch-up. If this scenario unfolds and you are on the Saints, you can rest easy by half time. If not, look for the Saints to inevitably pull away in the second half. Either way, Saints -14 is a gift. Saints will Cover just as all the other elite teams have against the Rams (by a wide margin to boot). Don't overthink this one. Sometimes it is just as easy as it seems.
Dallas -3
Another case where bettors are over-analyzing and not taking the obvious choice. Interestingly, if the line had been -6 or -7 Dallas, I think a lot more people would have taken Dallas. Let me explain. To anyone who knows any thing about football, GB has some obvious disadvantages in areas such as special teams and offensive line. The defense is overrated as well - how do you let TB, one of the league's most horrendous teams, score 20 unanswered points in the 4th quarter when you have a 10 point lead with 10 mins to go? Green Bay is an overrated team that probably will not beat a team with a winning record for the rest of the season. Dallas, on the other hand, is a balanced team which is peaking at the right time. I think Dallas will win the field position battle (superior special teams) and the 'turnover' battle (Ware will have a monster day). Look for Dallas offense to take advantage of good field position to score frequently just as Minnesota did. Look for the defense to take advantage of the the poor GB offensive line and Aaron Roger's propensity for holding the ball too long. I think Vegas is baiting people into thinking GB will make this a decent contest. Also, one bit of historical info that probably doesn't count for much: The Cowboys have had the Packers number since the Aikman-Favre era.
NE Moneyline
This one is probably a toss up and too close to call. However, I look for the Patriots to take advantage of the Colts' injuries on defense. Also, Indy is now on a 17 regular season game winning streak. In the last couple of weeks, they appear to have been holding on by a thread. The gravity of extending the streak seems to have made this team a little tight. Also, injuries are taking their toll. SF and Houston are not in the same league as NE so I think this is the week that Indy finally loses. It may actually be good for them - to get that all important first loss out of the way ;-)
