Week 10: 2 Key Picks for Teasers

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Parligod
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-28-09
    • 403

    #1
    Week 10: 2 Key Picks for Teasers
    Thoughts on Teasers: If you can pick up 2 solid "core" picks, you work off those and then set up 2-3 other combos utilizing those picks. Obviously if the core picks lose, then your teasers are killed, so you need to have a high level of confidence that they'll pull through. Your edge obviously is twofold: (1) You tease to get the point spread wider, thus increasing your chances of success (and the points are generally better spent going on actual spreads, not the Over/unders); and (2) the odds you get are increased.
    If utilized properly, I think 4-5 team teasers are very doable, and have value in the right spots.
    Thus my 2 picks:

    1. Denver -3 Teased 6 points to +3. Dont tease past the 0 right? I find exception here, #1 because this line is off, and should be closer to -5.5 (so your getting more bang for your buck), and #2 because this will likely be a low scoring game. Low scoring games tend to favor the underdog. Denver, becoming an "underdog" and having +3 buffer gives them the edge. But lets be honest, Denver's not losing this game anyway.
    2. Patriots +3 Teased 6 points to 9. Again, I think the line should be -3 to start, but its a nice line because it will induce bets on both sides. Thus your again getting additional value past the +6 points. I took Patriots to win outright in Indy this week, and if they lose it will be a close one. +9 is a gift.

    Your additional selections after this is up to you, I've played with Ravens -5, Saints -8 and have actually considered the Cards/Seattle game as well. This is a key game for both teams, and Seattle is treating it as a divisional "must win," so be mindful if you choose this game. Best of Luck on your additional selections.

    -Parli
  • urge2kill
    SBR MVP
    • 10-27-09
    • 1722

    #2
    Teasing through the 0 is for suckers.
    Comment
    • S.K.M.
      SBR MVP
      • 11-06-09
      • 1115

      #3
      Originally posted by urge2kill
      Teasing through the 0 is for suckers.
      What is the reasoning behind this? Just curious. I sometimes like to tease a team that i am very confident will win the game even if they are a small favorite thus teasing through the 0.
      Comment
      • Parligod
        SBR Sharp
        • 09-28-09
        • 403

        #4
        Originally posted by urge2kill
        Teasing through the 0 is for suckers.
        I agree as a general rule you shouldn't tease through the 0 but I don't believe its one you must follow every time. Like I said upfront there's mitigating factors: (1) the value is more than just 3 points for Denver (it may as well be closer to 6); and (2) this will likely be a low-scoring game, which favors an underdog. Here, Denver becomes an underdog once we get +3 on our side. So we're teasing 6 points but it feels more like 9.

        Don't make picks in a vacuum.
        Comment
        • urge2kill
          SBR MVP
          • 10-27-09
          • 1722

          #5
          Originally posted by S.K.M.
          What is the reasoning behind this? Just curious. I sometimes like to tease a team that i am very confident will win the game even if they are a small favorite thus teasing through the 0.
          You're paying for a point, the 0, that is pretty much worthless.
          Comment
          • Sweatyguido
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-19-08
            • 353

            #6
            This denver-washington game is very fishy to me. your right, the line should be more like den -6 to 7.5 & if you remember earlier in the week the line opened @ -4.5 so its gone down a full pt in favor of Denver, eventhough 83% of the money is on Denver. Makes no sense to me.
            i'm stayin away from this one, theres better gms to bet on
            Comment
            Search
            Collapse
            SBR Contests
            Collapse
            Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
            Collapse
            Working...