Last three weeks: 4-1, 5-0, 4-3 = 13-4
San Diego over Philadelphia 6 units ML 1.83
I don't think there's much between these teams, who can both beat the best or struggle against the worst on their day. Frankly the Eagles are a better-rounded team, with no outstanding weakness like the Chargers' league-worst rushing yards-per-carry. However, it's a horrible scheduling spot for Philly, travelling coast to coast off the back of three straight divisional games. The Chargers have a good opportunity to catch the visitors on an off-day.
Tennessee -7 over BUffalo 5 units
The Titans have bounced back somewhat - at last - from that horrific start to the season, albeit with a slightly flukey win at San Francisco. They were due some luck. Anyway, despite two wins in a row I still have Tennessee down as 'under-rated' using my top secret statistics, and when the league's best running game meets the league's worst run defense it's hard not to want to bet.
'Really?' stat of the game: Tennessee have given up the fewest sacks in the league.
Detroit +16.5 @ Minnesota 5 units
After St Louis in week 8 and Tampa Bay in week 9 (both winners) this is the official week 10 "Scary Play". It comes down to the following facts: Last year's 0-16 Lions lost their two games to the Vikings by a TOTAL of six points. The Vikings won this year's meeting by fourteen (which would still be good enough here), but the teams gained the EXACT same amount of yards during the game. Added to that, my closely-guarded ratings show the Vikings due a downturn in scoring and the Lions due a downturn in points allowed. With all that considered, I'll take the Lions on this enormous spread (and I hate missing the 17).
'Really?' stat of the game: Minnesota's awesome running game is 17th in the league in yards per carry.
Carolina +1.5 over Atlanta 5 units
On my hush-hush statistics I've got the Falcons down as slightly over-rated, the cats from Carolina as rather under-rated, and I've gone 3-0 following those assessments over the last three weeks. Atlanta are statistically average in most areas, with the exception of a nice passing game. The Panthers obviously have the edge on the ground, on both sides of the ball. With Del'Homme edging his way back into form, I have to take last year's number one NFC seed to grind out a win in this important divisional game. Note that despite losing, the Panthers outgained the Falcons in the season's earlier meeting
Oakland -2 over Kansas City 5 units
God, it's tough to bet on the Raiders in general and JaMarcus Russell in particular. Still, in this battle of teams for whom you have to peer all the way down to the bottom of the statistical charts, the Chiefs are probably slightly worse. Additionally, my mysterious stats show that the Raiders are under-rated offensively (yes, really!), and they approach this game off a bye week. Meanwhile KC's Unshine band are on the rebound in road trips from one coast to the other.
'Not surprising' stat of the game: KC have the worst 3rd down conversion rate and fewest interceptions made in the NFL
Green Bay +3 over Dallas 5 units + 3 units ML @ 2.2
I had a nice win by opposing Green Bay last week at Tampa Bay. This week, I'm on their side - and not just because I really do love cheese. Edam, Gouda, Cheshire, Stilton, Danish Blue, Havarti.... um, anyway. The broad picture here shows that NFL teams often produce good performances after they have been embarrassed. It also shows that this is what some handicappers call a 'sandwich' game for Dallas (eg there are crucial divisional games either side of it), and is their second straight week on the road. The details show that according to my super-secret numbers, defensively the Packers are under-rated and the Cowboys a little over-rated. Indeed, Green Bay generally defend both the pass and the run well, which is important given that Dallas are quite nicely balanced. The big question mark is, of course, whether Aaron Rogers can stay on his feet and off his arse frequently enough to take advantage of a barely mediocre Dallas pass defense. My hope is that the Packers will run the ball more and offer more play-action, and I give them a very good chance of winning this game.
'Really?' stat of the game: Green Bay allow only 3.47 yards per carry on the ground, 2nd in the NFL
OVER/UNDERS
Denver/Washington to go over was on my slate, but the number has shot up from 36.5 to 40.5 so I have to pass. Must get on my games earlier, as I'm losing points and half-points all over the place lately on my selections. Anyway, here are this week's semi-system-generated totals bets:
Saints/Rams under 50: It's a huge number. Shrug. 4 units
Buccaneers/Dolphins under 42.5: Has annoyingly dropped from 44. I still take it. 3 units
Lions/Vikings under 47.5: Vikings are almost as heavily 'over' this season as Saints. This can't continue. 3 units.
San Diego over Philadelphia 6 units ML 1.83
I don't think there's much between these teams, who can both beat the best or struggle against the worst on their day. Frankly the Eagles are a better-rounded team, with no outstanding weakness like the Chargers' league-worst rushing yards-per-carry. However, it's a horrible scheduling spot for Philly, travelling coast to coast off the back of three straight divisional games. The Chargers have a good opportunity to catch the visitors on an off-day.
Tennessee -7 over BUffalo 5 units
The Titans have bounced back somewhat - at last - from that horrific start to the season, albeit with a slightly flukey win at San Francisco. They were due some luck. Anyway, despite two wins in a row I still have Tennessee down as 'under-rated' using my top secret statistics, and when the league's best running game meets the league's worst run defense it's hard not to want to bet.
'Really?' stat of the game: Tennessee have given up the fewest sacks in the league.
Detroit +16.5 @ Minnesota 5 units
After St Louis in week 8 and Tampa Bay in week 9 (both winners) this is the official week 10 "Scary Play". It comes down to the following facts: Last year's 0-16 Lions lost their two games to the Vikings by a TOTAL of six points. The Vikings won this year's meeting by fourteen (which would still be good enough here), but the teams gained the EXACT same amount of yards during the game. Added to that, my closely-guarded ratings show the Vikings due a downturn in scoring and the Lions due a downturn in points allowed. With all that considered, I'll take the Lions on this enormous spread (and I hate missing the 17).
'Really?' stat of the game: Minnesota's awesome running game is 17th in the league in yards per carry.
Carolina +1.5 over Atlanta 5 units
On my hush-hush statistics I've got the Falcons down as slightly over-rated, the cats from Carolina as rather under-rated, and I've gone 3-0 following those assessments over the last three weeks. Atlanta are statistically average in most areas, with the exception of a nice passing game. The Panthers obviously have the edge on the ground, on both sides of the ball. With Del'Homme edging his way back into form, I have to take last year's number one NFC seed to grind out a win in this important divisional game. Note that despite losing, the Panthers outgained the Falcons in the season's earlier meeting
Oakland -2 over Kansas City 5 units
God, it's tough to bet on the Raiders in general and JaMarcus Russell in particular. Still, in this battle of teams for whom you have to peer all the way down to the bottom of the statistical charts, the Chiefs are probably slightly worse. Additionally, my mysterious stats show that the Raiders are under-rated offensively (yes, really!), and they approach this game off a bye week. Meanwhile KC's Unshine band are on the rebound in road trips from one coast to the other.
'Not surprising' stat of the game: KC have the worst 3rd down conversion rate and fewest interceptions made in the NFL
Green Bay +3 over Dallas 5 units + 3 units ML @ 2.2
I had a nice win by opposing Green Bay last week at Tampa Bay. This week, I'm on their side - and not just because I really do love cheese. Edam, Gouda, Cheshire, Stilton, Danish Blue, Havarti.... um, anyway. The broad picture here shows that NFL teams often produce good performances after they have been embarrassed. It also shows that this is what some handicappers call a 'sandwich' game for Dallas (eg there are crucial divisional games either side of it), and is their second straight week on the road. The details show that according to my super-secret numbers, defensively the Packers are under-rated and the Cowboys a little over-rated. Indeed, Green Bay generally defend both the pass and the run well, which is important given that Dallas are quite nicely balanced. The big question mark is, of course, whether Aaron Rogers can stay on his feet and off his arse frequently enough to take advantage of a barely mediocre Dallas pass defense. My hope is that the Packers will run the ball more and offer more play-action, and I give them a very good chance of winning this game.
'Really?' stat of the game: Green Bay allow only 3.47 yards per carry on the ground, 2nd in the NFL
OVER/UNDERS
Denver/Washington to go over was on my slate, but the number has shot up from 36.5 to 40.5 so I have to pass. Must get on my games earlier, as I'm losing points and half-points all over the place lately on my selections. Anyway, here are this week's semi-system-generated totals bets:
Saints/Rams under 50: It's a huge number. Shrug. 4 units
Buccaneers/Dolphins under 42.5: Has annoyingly dropped from 44. I still take it. 3 units
Lions/Vikings under 47.5: Vikings are almost as heavily 'over' this season as Saints. This can't continue. 3 units.
