Falcons -1

Edluva33 · 11-13-09, 04:48 PM

I agree, -1.5 should be a lock! Good Luck!

rdrunner466 · 11-13-09, 04:59 PM

Just like that Denver line Scares me!! It sounds way to good!!

Parligod · 11-13-09, 05:18 PM

I picked Falcons at first then I noticed the exact thing you did - all 3 of their losses are against top teams ( think Dallas is not elite but is in the top tier of teams right now). I'm liking the pick a lot more.

balman · 11-13-09, 05:59 PM

don't know if you follow Walt's picks on http://walterfooball.com , he's pretty good and a great sense of humor... here is his write up on the match up..
Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt's Projected Line (Before Week 9): Falcons -3.
Walt's Projected Line (After Week 9): Falcons -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

CAROLINA OFFENSE: DeAngelo Williams and his offensive line really deserve a ton of credit. It's amazing how well they're running the ball considering that the team is getting nothing out of Jake Delhomme and the passing attack.

Williams should be primed for another monstrous performance. The Falcons are a pretty mediocre, ranking 16th versus the rush and giving up at least 100 yards on the ground in five of their past six games.

As long as the Panthers don't fall behind, they should be fine. John Fox showed us last week that he's perfectly fine running the ball on a 3rd-and-9. He just doesn't trust Delhomme at this point, and I can't blame him.

However, if Carolina incurs an early deficit, Delhomme will commit enough turnovers to make you think that 10 of his sons were kidnapped.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: So, the question remains if the Panthers will fall behind early on. I say yes.

Carolina's run defense has improved recently, but the Panthers haven't exactly played a team with a strong ground attack in the past month. That won't be the case this Sunday. After a slow start, Michael Turner has gained 317 yards and three touchdowns in the past two contests.

With Turner moving the chains, Matt Ryan should be able to rebound off three pedestrian performances. I know Carolina's secondary is awesome, but Ryan went 21-of-27 for 220 yards, three touchdowns and a pick the last time he went against them. Also, keep in mind that star linebacker Thomas Davis is out for the year. That's a huge loss for Carolina.

RECAP: This is a rough spot for the Panthers. They had been playing so well and even established a 17-3 lead at New Orleans. However, despite their best efforts, the Saints came back and won by 10. Carolina will be flat here.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are a bit underrated right now; their 5-3 record isn't pretty, but the three teams they've lost to are New England (6-2), Dallas (6-2) and New Orleans (8-0). You can't really fault them for those defeats. However, we can use this to our advantage by taking the Falcons on a low point spread that should be around -3.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
The Panthers put a lot of energy into the Saints game. They were up 17-3, but lost the lead at the end. They could be flat here.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
No surprise that the public is all over the Falcons.
Percentage of money on Atlanta: 91% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers. History: Falcons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Divisional Revenge: John Fox is 6-2 ATS in same-season divisional revenge games.
Panthers are 29-22 ATS as an underdog the previous 51 instances.
Panthers are 20-30 ATS at home since 2003.
Jake Delhomme is 24-11 ATS as an underdog in his career.
Opening Line: Falcons -1.
Opening Total: 44.
Week 10 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Panthers 20
Falcons -1.5 (4 Units)
Over 43.5 (0 Units)

cheers
Balman

jerseykingpin · 11-13-09, 06:45 PM

no touch this game could go eather way its like pouring gas on water dont know which way it will burn