Look at road #'s so far for Pitt:Won 28-20 @ Detroit
Lost 14-17 @ Chicago
Lost 20-23 @ Cincy
So, Pittsburgh has scored 62 offensive points on the road and allowed 60 defensive points (TO DETROIT, CHICAGO, CINCY!)
On average, they have outscored their opponents on the road by an average of 0.67 points per game.
Look at home #'s so far by Den:
Won vs. Cleveland 27-6
Won vs. Dallas 17-10
Won vs. New England 20-17
So, Denver has scored 64 offensive points at home and allowed 33 defensive points. (more points scored, fewer points allowed to arguably better teams)
On average, they have outscored their opponents by 10.33 points per game
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that
Denver > Detroit,
Denver > Chicago and even
Denver > Cincy
Analysis:
a) Pittsburgh has already lost on the road to 2 teams inferior to the Broncos
b) Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS on the road this year
c) Mile High is inherently a more difficult place to play (due to the altitude wearing down players not used to that environment) than @ Cin/Chi/Det
d) Denver wants to bounce back from a beatdown last week to Balt
e) Home dogs are 2-0 Straight up this week
f) Denver's home Margin.Of.Victory. dominates Pitt's away M.O.V.
I feel very good about this analysis, more so than just because "65% of the public on Pittsburgh and Vegas usually wins on MNF"
Does anybody have arguments with the 6 points I made here?
All useful comments appreciated. Please don't respond with "PITT IS THE PLAY" as that is not really handicapping, just your opinion....thanks!
