I'm a fantastic 9-1-1 the last two weeks, so I'm either red hot or due for a fall. Let the ball bounce as it will on the following picks:
Denver +3 over Pittsburgh 5 units plus 5 units ML at 2.3
I had a nice win by opposing Denver last week, but that was on the road. Lack of public belief in the Broncos is instantly reborn in the shape of this bizarre line. Denver outperform Pittsburgh in almost every statistical category, yet the Steelers are favoured on the road here? I don't buy it. It'll likely take a huge performance from Roethlisberger to pull out a road win here. Could happen, but a Denver win is the smart call.
Jacksonville -6.5 over Kansas City 5 units
Nothing fancy-schmancy about this pick, although I do have a statistical yardstick that says the Jags are under-rated offensively. But basically, KC are just terrible and Jacksonville at home should simply run through them. The one concern is the Jags poor, poor pass defense. Matt Cassell should take advantage of the appalling 70% completion rate the Jags are allowing, but endless checkdowns don't figure to rack up a ton of yards. While KC have faced a pretty tough schedule, they've done little to suggest that they can win here without a huge helping of luck.
Tampa Bay +9.5 over Green Bay 4 units plus 2 units ML at 4.6
This one takes some guts; Tampa give the impression of being in some measure of disarray, with an in-over-his-head HC. However, my stats show them under-rated and due some improvement in results. Florida was not a happy hunting ground for this Green Bay team last season. With two weeks' prep to face the sack-unhappy Packers, at home, and some signs of life at QB, I'll take a punt on the Bucs pulling off one of the weekend's more surprising wins.
Carolina +13 @ New Orleans 4 units
I don't care much that Carolina have won here six times in a row, although it can't hurt to know that a venue holds no intrinsic fear for your team. I put more faith in the fact that I have the Saints a little over-rated and the Panthers a little under-rated so far this season, making this too big a line. It seems inevitable that Carolina will attempt to run the ball incessantly. The Saints don't defend the run brilliantly (22nd in the league in yards-per-carry allowed) so it will be interesting to see how they fare when they know a run-heavy attack is coming. In the end, I can't resist taking last year's No. 1 NFC seed - who I don't believe have regressed THAT much - getting 13 points versus an outfit who surely can't keep putting up INT return TDs indefinitely.
NYG -5 over San Diego 5 units
There isn't a lot to choose statistically between these teams, but Norv Turner's Chargers appear not to give major priority to long, non-conference trips like this, although the fact it's not an early game helps them some. Still, off the back of three divisional games I'm not sure we'll see them at their best. The Giants, anyway, are a better-balanced offense - so if Manning's ongoing heel issue isn't going to totally ruin his season then this should be a home win to get NYG 'off the schneid'.
Totals
My totals bets are largely based on a loose system, and as such I'm not as positive about them as my 'sides'. We'll see how it goes...
New England/Miami under 46.5 3 units
Miami keep putting up 'overs', but it hasn't had all that much to do with offense and defense. I like their chances of controlling the clock at Foxboro and turning in an 'under'.
New Orleans/Carolina under 51.5 3 units
Going under with the 'high octane' Saints? Nervously, yes; lots of defensive and special teams points lately probably can't continue. Plus, Carolina look better-equipped than most to play keep-ball in the dome.
Denver +3 over Pittsburgh 5 units plus 5 units ML at 2.3
I had a nice win by opposing Denver last week, but that was on the road. Lack of public belief in the Broncos is instantly reborn in the shape of this bizarre line. Denver outperform Pittsburgh in almost every statistical category, yet the Steelers are favoured on the road here? I don't buy it. It'll likely take a huge performance from Roethlisberger to pull out a road win here. Could happen, but a Denver win is the smart call.
Jacksonville -6.5 over Kansas City 5 units
Nothing fancy-schmancy about this pick, although I do have a statistical yardstick that says the Jags are under-rated offensively. But basically, KC are just terrible and Jacksonville at home should simply run through them. The one concern is the Jags poor, poor pass defense. Matt Cassell should take advantage of the appalling 70% completion rate the Jags are allowing, but endless checkdowns don't figure to rack up a ton of yards. While KC have faced a pretty tough schedule, they've done little to suggest that they can win here without a huge helping of luck.
Tampa Bay +9.5 over Green Bay 4 units plus 2 units ML at 4.6
This one takes some guts; Tampa give the impression of being in some measure of disarray, with an in-over-his-head HC. However, my stats show them under-rated and due some improvement in results. Florida was not a happy hunting ground for this Green Bay team last season. With two weeks' prep to face the sack-unhappy Packers, at home, and some signs of life at QB, I'll take a punt on the Bucs pulling off one of the weekend's more surprising wins.
Carolina +13 @ New Orleans 4 units
I don't care much that Carolina have won here six times in a row, although it can't hurt to know that a venue holds no intrinsic fear for your team. I put more faith in the fact that I have the Saints a little over-rated and the Panthers a little under-rated so far this season, making this too big a line. It seems inevitable that Carolina will attempt to run the ball incessantly. The Saints don't defend the run brilliantly (22nd in the league in yards-per-carry allowed) so it will be interesting to see how they fare when they know a run-heavy attack is coming. In the end, I can't resist taking last year's No. 1 NFC seed - who I don't believe have regressed THAT much - getting 13 points versus an outfit who surely can't keep putting up INT return TDs indefinitely.
NYG -5 over San Diego 5 units
There isn't a lot to choose statistically between these teams, but Norv Turner's Chargers appear not to give major priority to long, non-conference trips like this, although the fact it's not an early game helps them some. Still, off the back of three divisional games I'm not sure we'll see them at their best. The Giants, anyway, are a better-balanced offense - so if Manning's ongoing heel issue isn't going to totally ruin his season then this should be a home win to get NYG 'off the schneid'.
Totals
My totals bets are largely based on a loose system, and as such I'm not as positive about them as my 'sides'. We'll see how it goes...
New England/Miami under 46.5 3 units
Miami keep putting up 'overs', but it hasn't had all that much to do with offense and defense. I like their chances of controlling the clock at Foxboro and turning in an 'under'.
New Orleans/Carolina under 51.5 3 units
Going under with the 'high octane' Saints? Nervously, yes; lots of defensive and special teams points lately probably can't continue. Plus, Carolina look better-equipped than most to play keep-ball in the dome.
