Kroyrunner's Week 9 - Superbowl Thread (23-11 ATS YTD)

LittleGiant · 11-05-09, 11:07 PM

Good luck with the picks. I'm sure I'll be following closely!

n1co35 · 11-05-09, 11:15 PM

BOL kroy,
hope the system plays get on the right track this week.

feltball · 11-05-09, 11:17 PM

Why not go for a lower winrate with more picks? Do you hate money?

kroyrunner89 · 11-06-09, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by feltball

Why not go for a lower winrate with more picks? Do you hate money?

System plays I didn't upgrade to my official plays were 0-2 last week. So I'd say I like my money.

bombCanada · 11-06-09, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

System plays I didn't upgrade to my official plays were 0-2 last week. So I'd say I like my money.

Kroy you just keep on doing what you do, never mind the free advice.

kroyrunner89 · 11-08-09, 03:36 AM

Week 9 is an interesting week, with my system not finding nearly as much value in the lines as it normally does. However, with all of the plays that my system has generated this week, I've got a high enough confidence in each to make them official plays. I spent the week looking for additional plays I'd like to add, but I don't see a ton of value out there this week aside from what my system has already identified. So, we're going to have yet another week of just 4 plays, let's hope it goes just as well if not better than last week. Here's what I've got:

* Miami +10.5

I'm still not a believer that Brady is back, as the Titans absolutely lay down against the Patriots in Week 6 and Tampa Bay has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Aside from these two games, we've still seen nothing out of Brady to indicate that he's back to old form. Although Miami's pass defense is 6th worst in the league in pass yards per attempt allowed, they managed to hold the Saints down in the first half of that game by dialing up the pressure. I expect them to do similarly to Brady, and I don't think he'll be able to adjust to it as well as the Saints did late in the game.

Meanwhile, New England is 9th worst in the league at rushing yards per attempt allowed. Considering that they're going up against the wildcat this weekend, that's not good news for them. I think the Dolphins are able to exploit the Patriots' rush defense, while holding Brady in check for most of the game. Dolphins should keep this one within a touchdown, with an outside shot at stealing it outright.

* Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5

Every time I pick a Saints over it's starting to feel like a square pick, however there's no way to ignore it when the line is set this low. The Saints showed how much they missed Ellis last Monday as Turner had no trouble getting loose, and really ran well for the first time all season. Going against a run first team like Carolina, I think this weakness can be exploited and the Saints are going to have trouble slowing down the Panthers' ground game. Carolina should be able to put up their fair share of points.

We all know what to expect on the Saints' side of the ball. Brees is leading the most potent offense in the NFL, and will certainly make the most of any Saints drives. Brees will rack up the yardage, and so far the Panthers' defense is worst in the league at scoring efficiency. Saints shouldn't be held under 35, while I'd be surprised to see the Panthers fall short of 17. Should be another high scoring game in New Orleans.

* Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5

Here we have the 8th best passing offense in the league going against the worst passing defense in the league. The Packers should have no trouble moving the ball through the air, especially considering that Tampa Bay's defense has the third fewest sacks in the NFL. Sacks have been the main thing slowing the Green Bay offense so far this year, and I don't expect to see many of them on Sunday.

Tampa Bay's offense has been absolutely terrible so far this year, scoring just under 14 points a game. With yet another new quarterback finding the starting lineup, one has to wonder if my system wouldn't be prepared to assess such a change. However, the way I see it, when an offense is doing so badly, how could a change like this make it any worse? If my system likes the over with the dismal numbers we've seen out of Tampa so far, we can only hope that this change makes things better. Even if he turns the ball over 5 times, that'll just mean more short fields for the Packers and more chances to put points on the board. However, I expect Tampa shows a little life on offense and we see a 30-17 type of game.

* Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5

The Giants' secondary has been getting absolutely shredded lately, and they happen to be going against the 4th best passing offense in the league this week. The Chargers have also been the 6th best team in the league at turning their yardage into points, a category that the Giants' defense ranks second to last in. The Chargers have the pieces in place to put on an offensive show on their end of the ball.

The San Diego defense has been equally as bad at limiting opponents yardage from turning into points. They're currently 8th worst in the league at this, a bad sign for them because the Giants' offense is 7th best at pass yards per attempt and 11th at rush yards per attempt. I expect a bounce back effort from the New York offense this week, as they'll have to put up points on the scoreboard to stay in the game. Against this weak Chargers' defense, I don't expect that to be a problem and this game should be an easy over.

ATS System Plays (2-3):

* Miami +10.5

This is the first week I've ever seen my system only have one ATS play. This is not the norm and I don't expect to see it again any time soon.

Totals System Plays (1-0):

* Saints/Panthers OVER 51.5
* Packers/Bucs OVER 43.5
* Giants/Chargers OVER 47.5

As always, good luck to everyone this week!

n1co35 · 11-08-09, 09:21 AM

BOL kroy. looks like system plays are also in the personal plays.
with u on miami. and pack/bucs over

dvb02 · 11-08-09, 09:37 AM

Kroy, I thought you had both System plays and Personal plays. Do you no longer have personal plays and only have system plays? Just a little confused. Good luck this weekend.

MrMonkey · 11-08-09, 11:40 AM

Good luck Kroy!

kroyrunner89 · 11-08-09, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by dvb02

Kroy, I thought you had both System plays and Personal plays. Do you no longer have personal plays and only have system plays? Just a little confused. Good luck this weekend.

A lot of the time my personal plays will overlap my system plays. This week I didn't like a lot of the lines, and on top of that my system had an unusually low number of plays. So I didn't have any personal plays my system didn't agree with, and my system plays all were worthy of being upgrades to personal plays. In most weeks, you'll see a decent # of system plays that aren't also personal plays. Good luck today guys!

Hotsauce_wally · 11-08-09, 01:24 PM

Im on the same 3 overs, lets rake it in

dvb02 · 11-08-09, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

A lot of the time my personal plays will overlap my system plays. This week I didn't like a lot of the lines, and on top of that my system had an unusually low number of plays. So I didn't have any personal plays my system didn't agree with, and my system plays all were worthy of being upgrades to personal plays. In most weeks, you'll see a decent # of system plays that aren't also personal plays. Good luck today guys!

Thanks and good luck

kroyrunner89 · 11-09-09, 01:08 PM

Not the best of weeks, 2-2 with us eating a little juice. That Saints game not going over was a bad break considering Carolina was down two scores and had a the ball on the New Orleans 6 with under a minute to go... but it happens. Breaks will go our way again sooner or later.

Official Plays: 25-13 ATS

System ATS Plays: 3-3
System Totals Plays: 2-2

kroyrunner89 · 11-09-09, 03:57 PM

After flip-flopping a bit, I've decided to release a play tonight. We'll see if we can salvage a winning week after yet another bad break turned a potential 3-1 week into a 2-2 one (I'm looking at your Carolina.... shame on you for not turning it into a one score game in the waning minutes. A field goal would have given us the over. Fire your coach already). Tonight, I'm really liking Denver/Pitt UNDER 41. When Denver is on offense, it all starts with the run. A big part of their struggles scoring points against the Ravens was because they couldn't get their run game going, and tonight it won't be much easier for them going against the 8th ranked rush defense in the NFL. Pittsburgh has also managed to stay an elite pass defense, despite the absence of Polamalu for a chunk of the season. Currently the Pittsburgh pass defense ranks 7th in the league, and surely will make life difficult for Orton tonight. Considering that Denver's defense currently ranks better than the Steelers' in both these categories, the offense for Pittsburgh will be no cake-walk either. Neither of these offenses really have a serious big play threat, and will have long, clock eating drives when they do score. I think this is a 17-13 type of game, the total should go under no problem for us. Cross your fingers that there aren't defensive touchdowns! Good luck tonight guys!

n1co35 · 11-09-09, 07:57 PM

hey kroy also like the under for tonights game.
but for me it will be a no play, since its a monday night game.
it always seems to go over.
BOL tonight. routin for a winning. week.

kroyrunner89 · 11-10-09, 02:12 AM

Got the win tonight, making it a 3-2 Week. Looks like things are getting back on the right track

Official Plays: 26-13 ATS

System ATS Plays: 3-3
System Totals Plays: 2-2

bombCanada · 11-10-09, 07:49 AM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

Got the win tonight, making it a 3-2 Week. Looks like things are getting back on the right track

Official Plays: 26-13 ATS System ATS Plays: 3-3 System Totals Plays: 2-2

More points for more winners Kroy, good work.

Separately I had a 7pt teaser for the Steelers +5 / over 34 working... middled that nicely.

It's great when that happens.

kroyrunner89 · 11-12-09, 04:26 PM

For tonight's game, my system has Chicago +3.5. I'm not upgrading this to an official play, but I just thought some of you would be interested to know what it's picking. Good luck to anyone who makes a play on tonight's game!

n1co35 · 11-12-09, 06:16 PM

nice pick. im aslo in chicago and a small ML play.
i'll be waitin for the week 10 picks.

kroyrunner89 · 11-15-09, 04:49 AM

With two winning weeks in a row, it seems that we're starting to get things rolling in the right direction again. We've managed to go 6-3 ATS over that time span, despite the fact that my system has had such a slow start (5-6 ATS). I'm scratching my head a bit over why it's started so badly, but I trust it'll turn itself around sooner or later. So far, system plays that I have not made official plays are 0-3 ATS. Unless some of these system plays that I'm not upgrading start winning, I see no reason to keep posting them up. What good does it good for me to show system plays that just turn out to be losers? I'll monitor it for a week or two more, but I may be making a change in the coming weeks. Without further ado, here are my plays for Week 10:

* Colts/Patriots UNDER 50
I emailed out this play earlier in the week because of how much it jumped off the page at me. The Colts and Patriots have had astounding defenses so far, with Indianapolis having the best scoring efficiency defense in the league, and New England's ranking third best. As I explained a bit last week, I still do not think that Tom Brady is fully back, as the Patriots' red zone struggles continue. I expect this to be yet another week where they have to settle for a lot of field goals. On the Colts' offense side of the ball, this is a one dimensional offense that cannot run the ball very effectively. Teams in the NFL are starting to figure this out, which could be part of the reason Manning only has one touchdown pass over his last two games. I expect this game to stay a bit lower scoring, not turning into the shootout that a lot of people are expecting.

* Green Bay Packers +3
* Cowboys/Packers OVER 47.5
This feels like a letdown game for the Cowboys in my opinion. They're coming off of a huge win on the road against a division rival, and now go on the road again to face a Packers team that I really don't think is as bad as it looks. Despite all of the sacks (with that yardage factored in), Green Bay is still the 8th best team in the league in yards per pass attempt, which I find remarkable. Their run defense is currently doing a great job as well, as they're ranked second in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed. I think they can limit this Cowboys' rushing attack, turning this into a battle through the air, something which would be very helpful to the over. In the end, I think we're going to see a bit of a stinker out of Romo as he has a couple costly turnovers, and the Packers should capitalize and win this game outright in a high scoring affair.

* Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43
Miami's passing offense has been awful as of late, but luckily for them they're going against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Miami's wildcat offense should see plenty of success against the third worst rushing defense in the NFL, and the passing game should wake up a bit as well. Considering that the Dolphins are the fourth best team in the league at scoring efficiency, I expect them to put up a good number of points. I don't think we'll need more than 14 points out of the Bucs to push this total over, and they should be capable of providing us with that.

* Eagles/Chargers OVER 47
As seen in last week's Giants game, all the Chargers are capable of doing is throwing the ball. They had some costly drops to kill some drives, but I don't think that will be an issue this week. The Eagles may have one of the better defenses in the NFL, but I think they'll struggle a bit against the passing attack of the Chargers. The Eagles also have one of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, but the Chargers' defense isn't nearly as good as the Eagles'. Both teams will be able to put up their fair share of points, this feels like a 24-27 type of game, possibly higher.

ATS System Plays (3-4):

* Packers +3
* Chiefs +1
* Seahawks +9
* Saints -13.5

Totals System Plays (2-2):

* Packers/Cowboys OVER 47.5
* Colts/Patriots UNDER 50
* Chiefs/Raiders UNDER 36.5
* Dolphins/Bucs OVER 43
* Eagles/Chargers OVER 47

As always, good luck to everyone this week!

MrMonkey · 11-15-09, 11:23 AM

Kroy, everyone talking Dallas, I hope the Pack can recover this week! Looks like a good spot! Rodgers hopefully can mentally do it but oline has been horrible! MikeM needs some better play calling. Did your system give out anything on the side between SD/Philly? Thanks my friend!

kroyrunner89 · 11-15-09, 04:54 PM

Sorry to get back to you so late MrMonkey, the system didn't have a play on that game though. Chargers are looking good right now, hope that's the side you're on if you bet it!

kroyrunner89 · 11-17-09, 12:32 AM

3-2 ATS Week 10, I don't do this for 3-2 weekends. Kind of pissed at myself for keeping the Chiefs play and that under on the shelf. Regardless, I'll take another winning week and see if I can earn us more than one unit next week. Three winning weeks in a row, let's keep the momentum going! See you all Week 11

kroyrunner89 · 11-19-09, 02:04 PM

Miami Dolphins +3

The big thing scaring people away from the Dolphins in this game is the absence of RB Ronnie Brown. He's been a huge part of their wildcat offense, and without him there is concern that it will struggle to be as effective as before. However, Ricky Williams is a very suitable replacement to Brown, as he's been running great all season, averaging over 5 yards per carry. He should continue to find success, as the Panthers' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL, giving up 4.63 yards per rush attempt. Miami's running game shouldn't have much trouble getting going in this one, opening up the passing game for Henne.

Miami's run defense is also a strength of the team. They've limited opponents to 3.74 yards per carry, 6th best in the NFL. Considering that the main strength of the Panthers this year is running the ball, this is a very welcome sign. Although Miami's pass defense has been abysmal so far this season, the Panthers have had major struggles in their passing game, and if Delhomme is forced to air it out we may see a turnover or two.

Finally, I think Miami holds the special teams advantage in this contest. They're the 5th best team in the league at kickoff and punt returns, while Carolina is 8th worst. When it comes to defending these returns, Miami is right about average, while Carolina is the worst in the league. This leads me to believe that Miami will also win the battle of field position, which should go a long way in making sure they win this game. So, with all of these factors on our side and my system backing the Dolphins, I'll take Miami and hope that they get the job done.

As always, good luck to anyone who decides to wager tonight!

kroyrunner89 · 11-20-09, 12:36 AM

Thursday night win bringing me back up to 67%

Checkerboard · 11-20-09, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by kroyrunner89

Thursday night win bringing me back up to 67%

good stuff kroy. hope you have a great wknd!

n1co35 · 11-20-09, 09:15 AM

good stuff kroy. i was leaning towards dolphins however when i found out abt ronnie browns injury, I pulled the trigger on over instead...
anyway BOL this week.

bypp · 11-20-09, 09:25 AM

nice hit on the fins play tim. lookin forward to seeing what you have your eye on this sunday

kroyrunner89 · 11-22-09, 03:55 AM

We got the week off to a good start with Miami coming through for us and winning, but we still have a few plays to go that will hopefully seal out a good week. This was a tough week for me to pick as I didn't like a lot of what my system was recommending, and I felt that it was a very tight set of lines. However, I've managed to pull a couple more plays together that I think have a great chance of coming through. Here's what I've got this weekend:

Chargers/Broncos UNDER 45

I'm liking this under for all the same reasons I liked it the first time, and we get more points this time. I'm going to have to cross my fingers that we don't see three return touchdowns again. Although Denver's defense seemed to get a bit exposed last week in Washington, I still think they're a top notch unit and just came out a bit flat last week. At home against the Chargers this week, you can be sure they'll be fired up, which is great to know given that they're the 6th best passing defense and 7th best rushing defense on the season. As far as the Chargers' defense goes, they're slightly above average in both pass and rush defense. The Eagles tore them up through the air last week, but I think with Orton out of this game we won't have to worry about too dangerous of a passing attack from the Broncos. They'll likely try to win this game on the ground, which should result in a lot of clock being run on scoring drives. I don't think we'll see another three special team touchdowns, and we shouldn't see many if any quick scores. This game should go under pretty easily, I see about 41 points being the ceiling in this one.

Lions/Browns UNDER 38

I'm a little nervous about this one because it looks like an obvious pick. The Browns' offense has been terrible all year as everyone knows, and the Lions haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either. There's only one way I can see this game going over, which would be if the Lions blow the Browns out. The Browns' defense is good enough to keep that from happening, and should come out fired up knowing that this is a rare opportunity for the team to win a game. I don't think the Cleveland offense will do much different than usual, trying to move the ball methodically down the field, meaning that even if they do somehow find the end zone they'll eat a lot of clock in the process. I can't imagine a likely scenario where more than 37 points are scored, so I'm going to roll with the under here and hope that the Lions can contain Cribbs.

That's it for this week, small week I know, but I'm going to continue picking my spots and not forcing any plays! Hopefully next weekend has a little more action for us! Good luck to everyone this week!

n1co35 · 11-22-09, 06:51 AM

hey kroy like the under play on denver. I still think Denver's D is up there, and withou Orton they might have trouble scoring.
BOL this week.

mmike032 · 11-22-09, 10:25 AM

where did you get 45 on the Broncos game?
from what I'm seeing it opened at 43.5, and now is 41.5

bypp · 11-22-09, 10:57 AM

Like em both. GL today

kroyrunner89 · 11-22-09, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by mmike032

where did you get 45 on the Broncos game?
from what I'm seeing it opened at 43.5, and now is 41.5

Yeah, BetJamaica was the only book listing it all week, and they had it at 45. I still like it at 41.5 though

DeluxeLiner · 11-22-09, 01:35 PM

best of luck this week kroy