This week's picks all seem somewhat counter-intuitive - there's probably only one that I would pick on 'feel'. However, I trust careful analysis of teams and their performance based on numbers more than gut-feelings that are easily swayed by wins and losses that aren't always what they seem. Someone wrote in a post this week that Carolina got 'dominated' by Buffalo last week, which shows how easy it is to have a false impression of a team if you don't look at box scores and play-by-plays and so on.
Anyway, without further boring ado:
Baltimore -3.5 over Denver 6 unit bet at evens
"Are Denver for real", people keep asking. Well, of course they are. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that without an 80-yard tipped pass completion and a correctly-called overtime coin-toss they might be 4-2, as might the Ravens with a little more luck. I completely understand why an awful lot of handicappers are all over the Broncos here, but I say there isn't a three game difference between the performances of these two teams this season, and with Denver making their first east coast trip of the season I think they will taste defeat for the first time, by a score of around 27-17
Houston -3/5 @Buffalo 4 unit bet at 2.05
Buffalo boast a second-in-the-league opposition passer rating of 58, but they've faced Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne in his first NFL start, Derek Anderson in the wind and Byron Leftwich - plus an off-colour Tom Brady who was some way from his groove in week one. I think the league's leading QB in both yards and TDs (yes, that is Matt Schaub) can do better than that. Bills backers will feel comfortable with home advantage off the back of two wins, ignoring the nature of those two wins and the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm. The worry in backing the Texans is the injury status of Andre Johnson, but I'll chance it and look for a Houston win of something like 27-13
Miami +3.5 at NY Jets 4 unit bet at 1.86
I might be letting my dislike of the New Jersey team sway me a little (I'm only human), but Jenkins is a huge loss on the defensive line when you're about to face a team who absolutely murdered you on the ground recently. I would have backed Miami heavily in that Monday night game if I hadn't been concerned about Chad Henne, but having seen him look serviceable at the very least then I don't want to miss out second time around. Figures to be a low-scoring game, let's say the Dolphins get it done by around 20-14
St Louis @ Detroit 2 units money line at 2.6, 2 units +3.5 at 1.91
Maybe I've gone mad. Or maybe there really isn't much at all between these two teams. Using Washington as a yardstick might suggest that, with Detroit beating them at home, St Louis taking them close on the road. Indeed, most statistical measure don't put these teams very far apart. Most of all, I simply don't buy that the Rams appalling sequence of turnovers at the most inopportune moments can continue indefinitely; their yards-per-points-scored ratio is outside the realms of statistical likelihood, which means they are due to put some points up soon. What better time than against a defense which has allowed oppopsing QBs a 118 passer-rating and allows 4.65 yards per carry? A concern here is the presence of former Rams HC Scott Linehan on the Lions staff, but even so I like the Rams to take their opportunity to end 0-16 fears, by a score of 31-14
Carolina +10 @Arizona 4 units at 1.91
I'm really not one for going for "back-door covers". I like to bet teams who I feel have a really good shot of winning a game, or at least teams who I think could cover the spread by at least 10 points. Yet I can't stop myself backing the Panthers here for some boring statistical reasons that I won't bother going into, along with the Cardinals hot/cold nature, Warner's propensity to have the occasional turnover nightmare - plus the Panthers high revenge-quotient in this game after Arizona bounced them out of last year's playoffs on their own field. An unorthodox play or two help the Panthers keep this to a narrow 23-20 loss.
Anyway, without further boring ado:
Baltimore -3.5 over Denver 6 unit bet at evens
"Are Denver for real", people keep asking. Well, of course they are. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that without an 80-yard tipped pass completion and a correctly-called overtime coin-toss they might be 4-2, as might the Ravens with a little more luck. I completely understand why an awful lot of handicappers are all over the Broncos here, but I say there isn't a three game difference between the performances of these two teams this season, and with Denver making their first east coast trip of the season I think they will taste defeat for the first time, by a score of around 27-17
Houston -3/5 @Buffalo 4 unit bet at 2.05
Buffalo boast a second-in-the-league opposition passer rating of 58, but they've faced Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne in his first NFL start, Derek Anderson in the wind and Byron Leftwich - plus an off-colour Tom Brady who was some way from his groove in week one. I think the league's leading QB in both yards and TDs (yes, that is Matt Schaub) can do better than that. Bills backers will feel comfortable with home advantage off the back of two wins, ignoring the nature of those two wins and the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is at the helm. The worry in backing the Texans is the injury status of Andre Johnson, but I'll chance it and look for a Houston win of something like 27-13
Miami +3.5 at NY Jets 4 unit bet at 1.86
I might be letting my dislike of the New Jersey team sway me a little (I'm only human), but Jenkins is a huge loss on the defensive line when you're about to face a team who absolutely murdered you on the ground recently. I would have backed Miami heavily in that Monday night game if I hadn't been concerned about Chad Henne, but having seen him look serviceable at the very least then I don't want to miss out second time around. Figures to be a low-scoring game, let's say the Dolphins get it done by around 20-14
St Louis @ Detroit 2 units money line at 2.6, 2 units +3.5 at 1.91
Maybe I've gone mad. Or maybe there really isn't much at all between these two teams. Using Washington as a yardstick might suggest that, with Detroit beating them at home, St Louis taking them close on the road. Indeed, most statistical measure don't put these teams very far apart. Most of all, I simply don't buy that the Rams appalling sequence of turnovers at the most inopportune moments can continue indefinitely; their yards-per-points-scored ratio is outside the realms of statistical likelihood, which means they are due to put some points up soon. What better time than against a defense which has allowed oppopsing QBs a 118 passer-rating and allows 4.65 yards per carry? A concern here is the presence of former Rams HC Scott Linehan on the Lions staff, but even so I like the Rams to take their opportunity to end 0-16 fears, by a score of 31-14
Carolina +10 @Arizona 4 units at 1.91
I'm really not one for going for "back-door covers". I like to bet teams who I feel have a really good shot of winning a game, or at least teams who I think could cover the spread by at least 10 points. Yet I can't stop myself backing the Panthers here for some boring statistical reasons that I won't bother going into, along with the Cardinals hot/cold nature, Warner's propensity to have the occasional turnover nightmare - plus the Panthers high revenge-quotient in this game after Arizona bounced them out of last year's playoffs on their own field. An unorthodox play or two help the Panthers keep this to a narrow 23-20 loss.