MY Record is 5-1-1 [ The New York Jets Do Not Welcome Miami to Giants Stadium Week#8

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  • MR.HARRYtheHAT
    SBR MVP
    • 09-20-09
    • 1018

    #1
    MY Record is 5-1-1 [ The New York Jets Do Not Welcome Miami to Giants Stadium Week#8
    MY Record is 5-1-1 Against and With the spread. I bet one game A week, I never bet spreads over 10, never a road team, getting 7 more points, never home steam giving up 7 more points ...I work off a spread sheet, weather,Injures, Power Ratings,Defense and Offence Analyzes, Team Coaches Comparisons and what Team has Lot Players with Flu//lol just kidding on .After doing a total Analyzes of all NFL Games for week #8, Game Day Sunday and My 1st Push Last Week. I studied A Little Harder and went through lot's of spread sheet's to come up with this game. So This is My Analyzes Of The Game??? and also I feel its best bet ,using my betting system After Reviewing All The NFL Games this Sunday For Week #8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The New York Jets Do Not Welcome Miami to Giants Stadium in week eight of the NFL season hoping to further their return to winning ways. The Jets started the season 3-0 before losing their next three games in a row, only turning it around last week by thrashing league whipping-boys Oakland 38-0 to move to 4-3. Miami’s fortunes also reversed last week, their two game win-streak snapped by a loss at home to New Orleans as they fell to 2-4.The Dolphins (2-4) lost to New Orleans 34-46 at home in Week 7 and now sit last in the AFC East. QB Chad Henne made 18 of 36 passes for 211 yards with two interceptions; overall he’s thrown for 659 yards with three TD passes and three interceptions in four games for a 76.5 passer rating. RB Ricky Williams had nine carries for 80 yards with three TD’s, while RB Ronnie Brown had 16 carries for 48 yards with a TD. WR Brian Hartline made three catches for 94 yards. The Dolphins picked off three interceptions and sacked Saints QB Drew Brees five times.
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    Miami’s fourth ranked rush defense is going to have to watch out for the now best ranked running game in the league . The Jets have a 29th ranked passing game that should even out against the Dolphins 22nd ranked pass defense. They don’t air out the ball often with their 25th ranked pass game and probably won’t against the Jets fourth ranked pass defense. Miami has played very well at times this season, but a brutal schedule has left them with a firm hold on last place in the AFC East. If the Dolphins are to defend their AFC East title, they must get on a roll soon -- starting with the Jets. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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    Coach Rex Ryan prides himself on his defensive schemes, but the Dolphins' Wildcat formation completely confused the Jets defense in Week 5. Rex Ryan will no doubt have some fresh ideas in place to stop the Dolphins' unique attack , but whether they will work remains to be seen. Their defense is ranked 10th overall with a seventh ranked pass defense and 22nd ranked rush defense. If they can’t slow down the league’s second best running game, it’s going to be a long day for the Jets defense. Not to mention their offense will see little time on the field. Rookie RB Shonn Green had an impressive showing last week filling in for the injured RB Leon Washington, but that was against the Raiders, this is the first time he will face a defense that game plans for him. The Jets average 21.7ppg and give up 14.9ppg, while averaging 17.7ppg at home and allow 14ppg. They are 4-3 ATS and 3-4 over/under.
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    The Dolphins had an upset win over the Saints in hand but ultimately couldn't match up with all of Drew Brees' weapons. Mark Sanchez has neither Brees' experience or arsenal, so this one comes down to who controls the line and runs the football better: the Jets, who have rushed for more than 300 yards in two straight games, or the Dolphins with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams and the Wildcat formation. The Fish haven't traveled well to New Jersey recently, it's a field-goal advantage for the Jets Give me the half-point and Iam going with the underdog
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    **NOTE** Wide receiver Ted Ginn Jr.'s struggles were perhaps the worst aspect of last week's disastrous second half against the Saints. Ginn dropped two critical passes -- one of which became an interception returned for a touchdown -- and his coaches seem to be losing patience. Expect the Dolphins to decrease Ginn's repetitions while increasing them for rookie Brian Hartline. If the Dolphins' receivers don't improve, it will be easier for the Jets to halt Miami's potent ground attack.
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    **NOTE**. Rookie cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, who had been sharing time at a cornerback spot, will both start after veteran Will Allen's season-ending knee injury. Both players have shown improvement throughout the season, but neither has been put under as much pressure as they'll face Sunday. They'll have to learn to communicate without Allen's veteran leadership to help them out.
    Nobody can complain about how Miami's running backs have performed this season. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams have become possibly the greatest one-two punch in the NFL, and the Dolphins will need to ride that success if they're going to beat the Jets again. Three weeks ago, the Dolphins ran out of the Wildcat more than ever. Since the Jets might have a better way to stop the package this time around, the running backs must be prepared to be just as productive out of the base offense
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    **NOTE**. At least slow down the Wildcat. After the Dolphins averaged more than 6 yards per play with that formation in their first meeting against the Jets, it may be a bit much to ask New York to shut it down. But if the Jets can do a better job of getting off blocks and staying with their individual assignments, Miami will face more unfavorable down-and-distance situations, forcing them to use their base offense.
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    **NOTE**These are two teams very familiar with one another and it should be another close game as games between these two usually are. In a game like this I like the 1/2 point in the spread and if you are going with the dog, it is probably a good idea to make sure you get it
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    The point spread is set at 3.5 points, just a field goal, making the Jets Favorite at -3.5 points and the Dolphins underdogs at +3.5 points. So far, betting against the spread had been far more even, with 55% backing the Jets to cover. Last time the sides met was in week five of this season, and the Dolphins delivered the second defeat of the Jets’ season by winning 31-27 in Miami.
    So far this season the Dolphins have been as uninspiring against the spread as they have on the field, covering at 2-4, the same as their win/loss ratio. The Bottom Line:The Dolphins know how to beat the Jets, The Jets are the ones who don’t know how to beat the Dolphins.New York have also covered in every win and failed in every loss,standing at 4-3 against the spread.
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    Henne is the real deal and still developing as he goes. Miami has the best run game in the league. Miami is undefeated in the division, to this point, and needs another division win if they want to stay competitive. The Jets are determined not to let the Dolphins burn them with the wildcat offense again, but losing both defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and running back Leon Washington hurts The Jets..
    The New York Jets are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight following a cover but they are just 1-4 against the the spread in their last five against AFC East teams and 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games as a favorite. Miami is 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against AFC East teams but they are just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games as an underdog.
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    Jets are determined not to let the Dolphins burn them with the wildcat offense again, but losing both defensive tackle Kris Jenkins and running back Leon Washington hurts. Miami is the underdog to most, they are 2-4,However this win is more important to the Dolphins. My Pick Only Pick This Week Dolphins+3 1/2 Over The Jets Make Sure You Get The 1/2 Point> {{ Dolphins 28, Jets 24 At Home}}
  • Sweatyguido
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-19-08
    • 353

    #2
    i dont know harry. this one might put you down 5-2-1. i'm no jets fan, but i know a revenge angle when i see one. Jets have this marked on their calenders after the loss they suffered last time around. This is one of those classic inter-division rival matchups where homefield will be a major advantage. Henne my be the real deal, but he's unproven in this setting. His ony starts were at home, and this road matchup with the loud Jets fans will prove too much. Jets had there letdown game right after losing to Miami. The hangover carried to there Buffalo matchup. But then look what happened after: 38-0 over Oak. (yeah i know its the raiders) the important thing is they did what they needed to do. now theres nothing rex ryan and co. want more then to head into the bye 5-3 with a key win over there rival dolphins. this will happen as Henne will be prone to mistakes and Dolphins find themselves in letdown mode after blowing that 24-3 lead last week vs. Saints. I see Jets comin out to an early lead much like last week and never look back winning 27-13
    Comment
    • minet123
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-17-07
      • 10280

      #3
      Great write up Mr Harry
      Tailing you on this one
      Cash'em BIG this Sunday
      Comment
      • MR.HARRYtheHAT
        SBR MVP
        • 09-20-09
        • 1018

        #4
        Originally posted by Sweatyguido
        i dont know harry. this one might put you down 5-2-1. i'm no jets fan, but i know a revenge angle when i see one. Jets have this marked on their calenders after the loss they suffered last time around. This is one of those classic inter-division rival matchups where homefield will be a major advantage. Henne my be the real deal, but he's unproven in this setting. His ony starts were at home, and this road matchup with the loud Jets fans will prove too much. Jets had there letdown game right after losing to Miami. The hangover carried to there Buffalo matchup. But then look what happened after: 38-0 over Oak. (yeah i know its the raiders) the important thing is they did what they needed to do. now theres nothing rex ryan and co. want more then to head into the bye 5-3 with a key win over there rival dolphins. this will happen as Henne will be prone to mistakes and Dolphins find themselves in letdown mode after blowing that 24-3 lead last week vs. Saints. I see Jets comin out to an early lead much like last week and never look back winning 27-13
        The Bottom Line:The Dolphins know how to beat the Jets, The Jets are the ones who don’t know how to beat the Dolphins.
        Comment
        • lakerboy
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 04-02-09
          • 94379

          #5
          Jets by 10
          Comment
          • Sweatyguido
            SBR Sharp
            • 12-19-08
            • 353

            #6
            Originally posted by MR.HARRYtheHAT
            The Bottom Line:The Dolphins know how to beat the Jets, The Jets are the ones who don’t know how to beat the Dolphins.
            thats the most asinine reasoning i've heard in a while. if you dont think rex ryan and the jets have been studying video since there last loss to the dolphins, and also video on how other teams have beaten the dolphins this year than your just ignorant. every team in the nfl has the technology to 'know' how to beat any team there matched up against on any given week. its the execution that is key, talent level on the team, and alot of other untangible factors that go into a game. home crowd is one of those factors, chad Henne hasn't started on the road this yr. He is untested in this situation. his inexperience and the noise of the homecrowd will be the deciding factor as he will make a few mistakes for the jets to capitalize on. Also this time around the jets have a different calvin pace. last time vs. dolphins, pace was on his first gm back from suspension. had to be substituted more often than usual, b/c he wasnt in top form just yet. know coming off a game where he forced 2 fumbles and sacked the QB 3 times, looks like he's in idseason form. when pace is on, he is one of the best pass rushing LB in the league. he will be in the backfield often on sunday and cause henne probs all day. the Jets know how to beat the Dolphins, they just need to execute it. and i'm very confident they will.
            Comment
            • brooks85
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-05-09
              • 44709

              #7
              the only way the jets stay in this game is bad ref calls like last time. Miami is going to run all over them, again. Also look to see ginn have another big game.
              Comment
              • MR.HARRYtheHAT
                SBR MVP
                • 09-20-09
                • 1018

                #8
                Originally posted by Sweatyguido
                thats the most asinine reasoning i've heard in a while. if you dont think rex ryan and the jets have been studying video since there last loss to the dolphins, and also video on how other teams have beaten the dolphins this year than your just ignorant. every team in the nfl has the technology to 'know' how to beat any team there matched up against on any given week. its the execution that is key, talent level on the team, and alot of other untangible factors that go into a game. home crowd is one of those factors, chad Henne hasn't started on the road this yr. He is untested in this situation. his inexperience and the noise of the homecrowd will be the deciding factor as he will make a few mistakes for the jets to capitalize on. Also this time around the jets have a different calvin pace. last time vs. dolphins, pace was on his first gm back from suspension. had to be substituted more often than usual, b/c he wasnt in top form just yet. know coming off a game where he forced 2 fumbles and sacked the QB 3 times, looks like he's in idseason form. when pace is on, he is one of the best pass rushing LB in the league. he will be in the backfield often on sunday and cause henne probs all day. the Jets know how to beat the Dolphins, they just need to execute it. and i'm very confident they will.
                10 Stats Matchups
                MIAMI DOLPHINS 10 Stats Matchups
                ATSSUO/U
                DescriptionWin-Loss-PushWin-Loss-PushOver-Under-Push
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Playing on turf surface - Last 3 years 2-3-12-4-03-3-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 road Underdog - After a non division game - Last 5 years 3-3-01-5-02-4-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs AFC East opponent - Last 3 years 5-4-14-6-05-5-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - Total is between 37 to 41 - Last 2 years 1-3-01-3-03-1-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 road Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Total is between 37 to 413-2-02-3-02-3-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - After a non division game - During the month of November0-4-00-4-01-3-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - With 6 day off - Last 2 years3-4-02-5-04-3-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Conference Opponent - Last 2 years 4-2-01-5-02-4-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Division Opponent - During Week 4 to 87-11-16-13-08-11-0
                When MIAMI DOLPHINS team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a non conference game - Last 2 years 3-0-12-2-02-2-0


                10 Stats Matchups
                NEW YORK JETS 10 Stats Matchups
                ATSSUO/U
                DescriptionWin-Loss-PushWin-Loss-PushOver-Under-Push
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team - Vs AFC East opponent - After a conference game 18-40-532-31-028-35-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite - During Week 4 to 8 - After a conference game 3-4-04-3-05-2-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 3 years - Vs Conference Opponent 4-3-06-1-03-4-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team - During Week 4 to 8 - Playing on turf surface 25-36-432-32-132-33-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team - Last 2 years - During the month of November 3-1-02-2-03-1-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team - Playing on turf surface - During the 2009 season 2-1-02-1-01-2-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as Home team as a Favorite - After a non division game - After a conference game 8-15-017-6-011-12-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team - Last 2 years - During Week 4 to 82-4-03-3-02-4-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as a Home team - With 6 day off - During Week 4 to 813-26-319-22-123-19-0
                When NEW YORK JETS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Division Opponent - vs. oppenent with a 31% to 40% winning %1-5-02-4-02-4-0
                Comment
                • MR.HARRYtheHAT
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-20-09
                  • 1018

                  #9
                  Rookie Shonn Greene ran for 144 yards with two touchdowns while Thomas Jones provided 121 yards and an additional touchdown as they helped the Jets to the easy win and lift them to the top rushing offense in the league at 184.9 yards per game.It is quite an accomplishment for a team that does not run the wild-card, but the team that does it best, Miami, is second in the league with 170.3 yards per game.Both of the Dolphins two wins this season have come against division rivals.And if Porter plays (and he probably will), Sanchez will be at risk of handing the other team another 6 points.Dolphins already have primetime experience this season, and against a better team. I don't expect this to be a blowout,
                  Here's how we see game breaking down

                  BEST MATCHUP: Jets LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson vs. Dolphins DE Jason Taylor. Ferguson yielded two sacks last week in New Orleans. Taylor has three sacks this season and has been a terror against the Jets in his career.

                  WHAT'S THE RUSH?: The Dolphins own the No. 1-ranked rushing offense in the NFL, averaging 183.5 yards per game to their opponents' 61. They've run the ball 147 times to their opponents' 83 carries. They have 47 rushing first downs to their opponents' eight.

                  WILD TIMES: The Jets must do a better job slowing the Dolphins' "wildcat'' offensive formation. Miami has run it 29 times -- all runs -- and gained 211 yards for a 7.3-yard average. Ronnie Brown, their leading rusher, has gained 162 of his 369 yards on 21 "wildcat'' runs. Pursuit to the ball and sound tackling will be critical.

                  ONE-HANDED: If the Jets can limit the Dolphins' rushing attack, they can tie one hand behind the Dolphins' back, because inexperienced QB Chad Henne (24-of-41, 207 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT) is not likely to carry the Dolphins to victory. The Jets' No. 1 goal on defense, other than forcing turnovers, is to put Henne in 3rd-and-long situations by stuffing the run on first and second down.

                  CATCH THIS: Even if the Jets aren't without their top WR Jerricho Cotchery (questionable with a hamstring injury), he won't be 100-percent. That leaves the Jets thin at receiver, with newcomer Braylon Edwards making his Jets debut after just three days of practice. Role players Brad Smith (3 catches), David Clowney (no catches) and Wallace Wright (no catches) will have to step up. I really don't think that will happen??

                  POSSESSIVE: The Dolphins' formula offensively has been to control the ball. Miami averages 35:58 per game in time of possession compared to their opponents' 24:03.

                  EFFICIENCY DEPARTMENT: The Dolphins are 54.1 percent on third-down conversions and 5-of-5 on fourth down -- both tops in the NFL.

                  FOE FACT: No regular receiver has an average per catch of more than 9.9 yards against the Dolphins.

                  JETS FACT: Kicker Jay Feely has made his last 20 field goal attempts, two shy of the team record 22 by Pat Leahy.

                  Mr.HARRYtheHAT'S CALL: The Jets defense will stuff the Dolphins' run on early downs and force Henne into 3rd-and-long situations. The Jets will play a bit more conservatively with Sanchez and run as often as possible. It'll result in a tight game decided late in 4 quarter

                  DOLPHINS 28 JETS 24
                  Comment
                  • Bumble Bee
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 10-26-09
                    • 183

                    #10
                    "the only way the jets stay in this game is bad ref calls like last time. Miami is going to run all over them, again. Also look to see ginn have another big game."

                    Couldn't have said it any better my self Brooks. The Jets best play against the Dolphins was the Passing interference call. I'm a die hard Dolphin fan, but I would stay away from this game. The Dolphins are 2-4 and could easily be 4-2 almost pulling off victories against two of the best teams in the league The Colts and Saints. They ran the ball down the Jets throats with Kris Jenkins in the lineup. They should control the clock and win this game but..... Two rookie corners starting for the Dolphins. Davis and Smith are decent for being rookies but I'm a little worried, then you throw in that the Bills D made Sanchez look like their old quarter back Losman. Typical Jets may have drafted the one quarterback thats hates playing in their home field conditions. This post is all over the place cause thats how this game could be. Will Ginn show up? Will Smith and Davis Step up? Can clean Sanchez win a game under 70 Degrees? As a Dol Fan Im gonna say Dolphins by a Field Goal but this would be a no play for me with rookies all over the palce and key personnel missing on each team
                    Comment
                    • khaden
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-19-09
                      • 1864

                      #11
                      i still see people are drinking the jets kool-aid--they lost their running back, rooking QB who plays like a rookie QB, and a coach who thinks he is way better than he is. The dolphins play much better than their record indicates, and will win this game outright, i see a ml play on this to make some extra cash, dolphins with the points and the ml.
                      Comment
                      • Sweatyguido
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 12-19-08
                        • 353

                        #12
                        i'll tell u what harry, u do your homework. very in depth, very convincing arguments. but sometimes in the nfl theres a thing called over analyzing. sometimes its just cut and dry, a 3 pt home favorite in a great situation coming off a loss to their division rival. u concede the 3 pts at home when the matchup is equal, which is what vegas is giving. i dont think this matchup is equal, not this time, not with miami on the road against a jets squad thats playing for the division only 1 gm behind the Pats. this opened up at jets -4 with 53% on dolphins. now at -3 public bets have risen to 57% on the Dolphins, despite getting a full pt less. the line is still at 3. (some books you can still get 3.5) what does this say? the books like their position on this game and are not moving the line. this screams out: fade the public.
                        not reading into that? well sometimes ya gotta go with your gut. my gut screams jets, and i was lookin for this game since they last time they played each other. i truly believe jets will be up for the challenge this time around, so i will respectfully take the other side here. i got jets in a teaser @ +10 with others for $200, and i got jets -2.5 (bought the half pt, just in case of the push) for $200. i'd wish you the best on this, but i'd be lying b/c i wanna cash the tickets!
                        Comment
                        • brooks85
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-05-09
                          • 44709

                          #13
                          this game saved my ass today. Lost huge on the giants but i bet 2k on Mia +3, Mia ml 2H +135, and 2 live bets -1.5 and -3
                          Comment
                          • Sweatyguido
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-19-08
                            • 353

                            #14
                            and sometimes Harry, your the man. nice call
                            Comment
                            • chrisharvard01
                              Restricted User
                              • 10-24-08
                              • 2943

                              #15
                              Nice work harry
                              Comment
                              • MR.HARRYtheHAT
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-20-09
                                • 1018

                                #16
                                WELL LADIES AND GENTS, MY WIN WITH MIAMI NOW PUTS ME 6-1-1 HOWEVER I WOULD LIKE TO THANK ALL OF YOU FOR READING MY THREAD AND COMMENTS.AND AS ALWAYS THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT. LOOK FOR MY THREAD FOR WEEK #9, LATER IN WEEK!!!![/color]
                                Comment
                                • JAHgger4noz
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 06-19-07
                                  • 614

                                  #17
                                  Very well read Harry. Never mind about making the right pick, u almost got the score perfectly predicted. GL in Week 9
                                  Comment
                                  • 19th Hole
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 03-22-09
                                    • 18964

                                    #18
                                    Nice call.
                                    Comment
                                    • rick_213
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-09-07
                                      • 392

                                      #19
                                      you da man!!
                                      Comment
                                      • duke4s907
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 10-07-09
                                        • 11

                                        #20
                                        Nice call

                                        I don't think anybody called it closer than that. Good job.
                                        Comment
                                        • PeePee
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 10-08-09
                                          • 619

                                          #21
                                          Comment
                                          • G's pks
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 01-01-09
                                            • 22251

                                            #22
                                            JETS FACT: Kicker Jay Feely has made his last 20 field goal attempts, two shy of the team record 22 by Pat Leahy.


                                            Harry just so you know feeley missed a fg against Buffalo in their loss in OT.... a few weeks ago. So scratch that fact... Not sure if he beat/tied Leahy but I am sure he missed one...but great job up to now!
                                            Comment
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