Week 8
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
The 6-0 Broncos visit the 3-3 Ravens, the most important thing for me in this game is getting past previous ideas that I had of these two teams. Denver is now a defensive powerhouse that has only allowed 11 points per game, while Baltimore is the offensive juggernaut averaging over 28 points per game. Flacco and company have thrown for 268 yards a game and will look to their high powered offense to carry them in this one. Denver has proven to be who they say they are, they have already beat San Diego, New England, Cincinnati and Dallas along with some who cares games against Oakland and Cleveland. They have earned the 6-0 record they hold. THe value in this game speaks for itself. Denver is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games, they aren't getting the national respect that is due to them in this game.
Lines are still using old thought process on these two teams and haven't adjusted to take in to account the two teams that will actually be on the field this weekend. The fact is Denver is 6-0, Baltimore is 3-3 while facing similar opponents. There is no reason the spread should be in this direction.
What is crazy to me in this one is that the 3-3 Ravens are over a feild goal favorite as I write this. Its already moved from 4 points. Get this one while you can at more than a field goal difference. I will be playing 3 units on DEN +3.5. Looks like a few places have already moved it to 3.
A +160 moneyline as of writing this is a gift from the betting gods. I know they are in Baltimore, it doesn't make a difference. I know Denver is relying on Kyle Orton, it doesn't make a difference. I know Baltimore has Ray lewis, it doesn't make a difference. Even with all of this in mind Denver wins this game. Loving this game is an understatement and the line will more than likely move. Getting the +160 now is the best price you will get on this game, get it.
The Total in this game poses some interest as well 41 seems high for these two teams, Denver has only averaged scoring 22 points per game, a number that is inflated from some special teams scores against the Chargers and a blowout against the Browns. Against quality opponents they have only scored 20/20/17/12. The Broncos defense has held opponents to 11 points per game, offenses like New England, Dallas, San Diego and Cincinatti have all put up less than 20 points against them. I don't see how this game hits the 41 point total. UNDER is the play here, of course there is always the threat of Eddie Royal screwing the UNDER like he and Darren Sproles did last week, but Baltimore will be pressed to kick it anywhere near Eddie and the Broncos win a close low scoring game. Two more units on the UNDER for this better.
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
The 6-0 Broncos visit the 3-3 Ravens, the most important thing for me in this game is getting past previous ideas that I had of these two teams. Denver is now a defensive powerhouse that has only allowed 11 points per game, while Baltimore is the offensive juggernaut averaging over 28 points per game. Flacco and company have thrown for 268 yards a game and will look to their high powered offense to carry them in this one. Denver has proven to be who they say they are, they have already beat San Diego, New England, Cincinnati and Dallas along with some who cares games against Oakland and Cleveland. They have earned the 6-0 record they hold. THe value in this game speaks for itself. Denver is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games, they aren't getting the national respect that is due to them in this game.
Lines are still using old thought process on these two teams and haven't adjusted to take in to account the two teams that will actually be on the field this weekend. The fact is Denver is 6-0, Baltimore is 3-3 while facing similar opponents. There is no reason the spread should be in this direction.
What is crazy to me in this one is that the 3-3 Ravens are over a feild goal favorite as I write this. Its already moved from 4 points. Get this one while you can at more than a field goal difference. I will be playing 3 units on DEN +3.5. Looks like a few places have already moved it to 3.
A +160 moneyline as of writing this is a gift from the betting gods. I know they are in Baltimore, it doesn't make a difference. I know Denver is relying on Kyle Orton, it doesn't make a difference. I know Baltimore has Ray lewis, it doesn't make a difference. Even with all of this in mind Denver wins this game. Loving this game is an understatement and the line will more than likely move. Getting the +160 now is the best price you will get on this game, get it.
The Total in this game poses some interest as well 41 seems high for these two teams, Denver has only averaged scoring 22 points per game, a number that is inflated from some special teams scores against the Chargers and a blowout against the Browns. Against quality opponents they have only scored 20/20/17/12. The Broncos defense has held opponents to 11 points per game, offenses like New England, Dallas, San Diego and Cincinatti have all put up less than 20 points against them. I don't see how this game hits the 41 point total. UNDER is the play here, of course there is always the threat of Eddie Royal screwing the UNDER like he and Darren Sproles did last week, but Baltimore will be pressed to kick it anywhere near Eddie and the Broncos win a close low scoring game. Two more units on the UNDER for this better.
