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nice gambleComment -
Broncos homers won't come within 10 miles of this thread now
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Great call. I feel stupid for missing out on this oneComment -
Yep, and sorry about your 2 losses, you know the one where you took Denver season total under 6 wins, because "there is no way the Broncos will win 7 games, this team is pathetic ", then after they started 6-0 you know your " they will win the division easy, they will win 12 games" call.
Doesnt matter if I bet 1 cent on the play, I was dead on. You on the other hand took a position before the season then tried to jump on that bandwagon and were 100% wrong both times.Comment -
Thanks everyone for the comments.
It was just a stupid line. This pathetic Bronco team was -700 to win the division over a Charger team that has now won 9 games in a row.
I didnt do anything special, just saw an obvious stupid line and took advantage of it.
I love the bandwagon jumpers who pumped that line up.
Yes, this crap Bronco team was -700 to win the division at one point. ( and people like Frostno couldnt even see how stupid that line was )
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Lol yea thats why you can't take homers like that seriously. They're the same ones that would be saying things like "hell yea the Saints or Vikings will win the superbowl!!". And then after one game (this past week for instance)... they're the same morons shouting "Saints and Vikings will lose 1st game in the playoffs, they suck!"
Oddsmakers love idiot gamblers who are steered so easy with short term memory, always only remembering what happened the previous week.Comment -
- must pay respects to this call
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wowwComment -
great fukking hit!this is an amazing gift. I think the books want to go bankrupt
. There have been some silly lines in college football this year and now we get the silliest, wackiest, most non sensical number i have ever seen in my gambling life.
Its october 27th and let me say it now the chargers will win the afc west.
At the start of the year i think the chargers were like -300 to win it, and what has happened to change that ? The broncos won it san diego. That is the only thing the broncos have going for them. That doesnt move the number from -300 to +550. They must be crazy.
The difference in the division is this. The chargers have lost to baltimore, pittsburgh, and denver. Guess what, the broncos havent played baltimore or pittsburgh yet or they would have 2 losses and san diego would still be a small favorite to win the afc west.
So the simple fact that the chargers have taken their 2 losses against baltimore and pitt and the broncos havent yet has twisted this line into complete silliness.
Dont doubt this fact --- the broncos will lose to both those teams and 2 weeks from now it will be broncos 6-2 chargers 5-3 and then that +550 is going to look like gold. If you're a chicken you can then buy back denver to win the afc west at probably -150. How does a +550 -150 scalp feel ?
I wouldnt suggest the scalp though because the chargers will win the afc west. The chargers last 6 games only leave you with one question, will they go 6-0 or 5-1 ? Look at the broncos last 6 games. They have to play the giants then go to indianapolis and philly. They will probably go 3-3 in their last 6 so they better have a 3 game lead after week 10 or they are toast.
I admit the chargers have to win when they go to denver. The chargers will probably be +170 or +200 at the most on the moneyline. That game, and that game alone will decide this division. So that makes this +550 so +ev it will be years before you ever see another play this +ev.
That game will decide this division the same as if that game was week 16 and they were both 11-4 coming into it. The ml on that game will be maybe -220 + 180, but the line on the division is -700 +550. Crazy.
There is no way the broncos win this division without beating san diego again.
Here is the assumptions i am making and these are not a stretch.
1. Chargers win in denver.
2. Both chargers and denver sweep oak and kc.
If this happens we have these records now.
Broncos 9-1 ( add wins over kc,kc, oak and loss to san diego )
chargers 6-3 ( add wins over oak, kc, and denver )
then look at broncos remaining schedule out of the afc west
@ baltimore
steelers
@washington ( i think the broncos lose this game)
giants
@ indianapolis
@ philadelphia
the broncos will go no better than 2-4 here. They play indianpolis week 13 so the colts will definitely still have something to play for. I think the broncos will come back to earth and prove to be a so so team and go 1-5 in these 6 games. That has the broncos finishing 10-6 and more importantly would give the tie breaker to san diego.
The chargers remaining scedule out of the afc west
giants
eagles
@ browns easy win
@ cowboys
cincinatti win
@ tennessee easy win
redskins win
out of this the chargers will go 5-2 or 6-1 which has them finishing 11-5 or maybe even 12-4 and they get the tiebreaker so there is room for error here in case they lose to a tennessee, washington or cincinatti.
Tiebreaker
1. Head to head even
2. Division both 5-1
3. Conference --- broncos lose an extra game because they will lose at indy and the chargers dont play indy.
The chargers + 550 is free money. Saying it now, chargers win the afc westComment -
Great call Nobs... Congrats!Comment -
NiceComment
