well, i was 3-1 in my posted plays, and 4-1 overall after i recalculated home field and the packers became a play for me late. as i plan my next trip to vegas i have a few things on my mind that i would like to share.
despite going a torrid 13-3 ATS on my posted picks in the past 3 weeks my thread got no love except from a few people. my winning % for the year is right at 70%, and after changing my selection method ever so slightly i have been at 82.3% after that. these are not lies, i am a pro, it is what i do for a living yet you all would rather follow some other square off the cliff.
now here are some basic lessons for everyone to help you win some money. if you have a generic number for home field you are dead wrong. i have a model just for calculating home field advantage and yes it does change every week.
next, spend 60% of your time capping games, 20% on how you should bet them (unless you are above 65% like me in NFL, then you should flat bet) and the other 20% on new math, system research and overall gambling education.
above all, if you cannot reliably predict the actual score of an NFL game then do not bet. spend your time developing a model, one with a confidence factor built in. then you will start making some REAL money, the kind of money you got in this to win.
lastly, i do know that many on here are in casinos are just recreational gamblers who do it for fun. keep it that way, it is a lot of fun especially the winning part. however for those of us who do it as a profession i only wish we had the chance to seriously talk methodology, capping styles, money management and more.
i am off to vegas in a few days and will be flying back and forth every week and i will not be here except for on dex's threads. he is the man. good luck this week and LOOK WEEKS AHEAD, THE BOOKS ARE!
despite going a torrid 13-3 ATS on my posted picks in the past 3 weeks my thread got no love except from a few people. my winning % for the year is right at 70%, and after changing my selection method ever so slightly i have been at 82.3% after that. these are not lies, i am a pro, it is what i do for a living yet you all would rather follow some other square off the cliff.
now here are some basic lessons for everyone to help you win some money. if you have a generic number for home field you are dead wrong. i have a model just for calculating home field advantage and yes it does change every week.
next, spend 60% of your time capping games, 20% on how you should bet them (unless you are above 65% like me in NFL, then you should flat bet) and the other 20% on new math, system research and overall gambling education.
above all, if you cannot reliably predict the actual score of an NFL game then do not bet. spend your time developing a model, one with a confidence factor built in. then you will start making some REAL money, the kind of money you got in this to win.
lastly, i do know that many on here are in casinos are just recreational gamblers who do it for fun. keep it that way, it is a lot of fun especially the winning part. however for those of us who do it as a profession i only wish we had the chance to seriously talk methodology, capping styles, money management and more.
i am off to vegas in a few days and will be flying back and forth every week and i will not be here except for on dex's threads. he is the man. good luck this week and LOOK WEEKS AHEAD, THE BOOKS ARE!
