Vikings, Packers rematch leads early betting action for Week 8
Monday, October 26, 2009 01:25 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
When the Vikings met the Packers a few weeks ago, Brett Favre had the Minnesota crowd behind him. That won't be the case when the teams meet this Sunday in Green Bay.
The Green Bay Packers opened Sunday night as a three-point favorite at home in their rematch against the Minnesota Vikings for Week 8 in the NFL. This is sure to be the most watched and wagered on game of the week with both professional and recreational bettors enjoying the action. Although taking a side in this one can give someone a team to cheer for, the opening total (48½) could be a bit too high and where the real value is at the sportsbooks.
Back in Week 4 it was the Monday Night showdown everyone was waiting for since the season began as Brett Favre led the Vikings at home against his former Green Bay teammates. The Packers never had the lead and Favre threw for three touchdowns on the way to a high-scoring 30-23 win. Although it was a big win for the Vikings, even more emotion is bound to happen for Favre as he makes his first appearance in Green Bay on Sunday since leaving the team two years ago.
Favre’s emotion and popularity is one aspect to look at here, but on the other side of the field it is a revenge situation for the Packers. I even felt Green Bay was looking so forward to this game that they would glance ahead and not take their trip to Cleveland on Sunday too seriously, but they showed up all business crushing the Browns 31-3. It will be a taller order to dispose of the Vikings than the Browns, and Packers fans may find themselves a little split. They want a win in Green Bay but Favre is bound to get many cheers and also knows more about playing at Lambeau than anyone else in the league would.
It is tough for me to take a side here given all of the factors and you can probably expect solid two-way action with the number at 3 should it stay there all week. The total is where I feel the Bookmakers have done a little too much inflation opening that at 48½. Before this came out, I felt anything higher than 45 would make it an under play for me and having just those few points of an overlay is enough to make it jump out at me as an early play this week. Some action has hit the under already pushing it down to 48 from 48½ at quite a few sportsbooks and I would suggest getting in now.
I expect to see a lower scoring game between these two teams than the Week 4 matchup and feel the seven combined touchdowns we saw will not happen again. With the prior matchup having been played in Minnesota’s dome, the rematch being on grass at Lambeau may be enough in itself to have less scoring. Although both games last year between the two teams went over the total, a Week 1 battle in Green Bay saw a combined 43 points on the board while a Week 8 rematch in Minnesota had 55 points put up.
With all of the emotion surrounding Favre, it would not surprise me to see him use it his advantage with Green Bay keying their defense on the passing game and have Minnesota turn more to the running game. Although the Vikings come into this matchup off their first loss of the season at Pittsburgh, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor may be the key to sweeping the regular season against the Packers as the Green Bay defense has been worse this season against the run than the pass.
I also feel that both coaching staffs will make adjustments from the Week 4 matchup and this should translate into making it more difficult for each team to move the ball. You may also see Favre a little more conservative than usual in not wanting to risk embarrassing interceptions in his return to Lambeau like the one this past weekend in Pittsburgh that sealed defeat for his Vikings. In some ways, the Vikings being handed their first loss in that kind of way on Sunday will only help them going into Green Bay this week and the rest of the season. And it will help cash the under this week as well.
Ravens favored to hand Broncos their first defeat
The lines in Denver Broncos games has been a broken record most of the season as again they find themselves as an underdog despite an undefeated record. Pinnacle and The Greek both opened with the Baltimore Ravens as four-point favorites as they host Denver with both teams coming off a bye week. Both teams went into their bye week in opposite directions as the Broncos kept their winning for the season going while the Ravens dropped three straight.
With two weeks to get ready, I feel the Ravens will finally end their losing streak and as well as put Denver’s winning streak to its own end. While the Denver defense will be a challenge for Joe Flacco and the Raven offense, I feel the Broncos will be coming east too overconfident and could not have had a bye week at a worse time. Even with the Ravens having a revenge game against the Cincinnati Bengals coming up the following week, I feel the focus will be there to defeat Denver making me willing to lay the points here.
Another rematch in Week 8: Jets and Dolphins clash in the Meadowlands
Just a few weeks ago, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins met on Monday night where the supposedly stellar defense on both sides did not show up. Miami pulled out a 31-27 victory thanks to a late touchdown from Ronnie Brown and the Jets will be looking for revenge this week. The Jets defense also looked impressive shutting out the Raiders in Oakland on Sunday.
That shutout likely could have inflated the line a bit for their matchup this week, but with the Dolphins playing better ball since the start of the season they only find themselves as four point road underdogs here when they had been three point underdogs at home to the Jets previously. With reasons on both sides that line value is just not there, the total sitting at 40 may be what to focus on and taking the under figuring the defense we should have seen in Week 5 comes through for one team or the other this Sunday.
Will the bye week help the winless but favored Titans?
The Tennessee Titans dropped to 0-6 two weeks ago after a crushing defeat by the Indianapolis Colts. With nowhere to go but up and nothing to lose off their bye week, the oddsmakers have favored the Titans to win at home this week against an inconsistent Jacksonville Jaguars team.
Even with every game seeming to be a revenge game for Tennessee this season, I am not sure the motivation will be enough to have a chance against the Jaguars. Although Jacksonville went into their bye week with a win, the victory was only by a field goal in overtime against the St. Louis Rams who the Jaguars should have had an easier time with. Despite already beating the Titans once, I feel Jacksonville will be up for this game and that problems for the Titans will continue.
Saints are heavy chalk next Monday when Falcons fly into New Orleans
With the Saints continuing their undefeated record on Sunday, the line in their first matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this season has made them favored by nine points. I feel this is too high for a divisional opponent like Atlanta who lost by only four points to the Saints in the Superdome last year. Matt Ryan threw for more yards than Drew Brees that day and should be able to keep it close again this year.
No question it should be a high scoring battle and with some touchdowns back and fourth, and nine points is too good to pass up. I am also sure the Saints will be a popular choice to include in teasers – and make the sportsbooks rich if they should lose outright – we know what side is best to be on here.
Good luck with getting your bankroll built this week and remember to get in early on some of these numbers before you cost yourself an advantage.
Monday, October 26, 2009 01:25 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
When the Vikings met the Packers a few weeks ago, Brett Favre had the Minnesota crowd behind him. That won't be the case when the teams meet this Sunday in Green Bay.
The Green Bay Packers opened Sunday night as a three-point favorite at home in their rematch against the Minnesota Vikings for Week 8 in the NFL. This is sure to be the most watched and wagered on game of the week with both professional and recreational bettors enjoying the action. Although taking a side in this one can give someone a team to cheer for, the opening total (48½) could be a bit too high and where the real value is at the sportsbooks.
Back in Week 4 it was the Monday Night showdown everyone was waiting for since the season began as Brett Favre led the Vikings at home against his former Green Bay teammates. The Packers never had the lead and Favre threw for three touchdowns on the way to a high-scoring 30-23 win. Although it was a big win for the Vikings, even more emotion is bound to happen for Favre as he makes his first appearance in Green Bay on Sunday since leaving the team two years ago.
Favre’s emotion and popularity is one aspect to look at here, but on the other side of the field it is a revenge situation for the Packers. I even felt Green Bay was looking so forward to this game that they would glance ahead and not take their trip to Cleveland on Sunday too seriously, but they showed up all business crushing the Browns 31-3. It will be a taller order to dispose of the Vikings than the Browns, and Packers fans may find themselves a little split. They want a win in Green Bay but Favre is bound to get many cheers and also knows more about playing at Lambeau than anyone else in the league would.
It is tough for me to take a side here given all of the factors and you can probably expect solid two-way action with the number at 3 should it stay there all week. The total is where I feel the Bookmakers have done a little too much inflation opening that at 48½. Before this came out, I felt anything higher than 45 would make it an under play for me and having just those few points of an overlay is enough to make it jump out at me as an early play this week. Some action has hit the under already pushing it down to 48 from 48½ at quite a few sportsbooks and I would suggest getting in now.
I expect to see a lower scoring game between these two teams than the Week 4 matchup and feel the seven combined touchdowns we saw will not happen again. With the prior matchup having been played in Minnesota’s dome, the rematch being on grass at Lambeau may be enough in itself to have less scoring. Although both games last year between the two teams went over the total, a Week 1 battle in Green Bay saw a combined 43 points on the board while a Week 8 rematch in Minnesota had 55 points put up.
With all of the emotion surrounding Favre, it would not surprise me to see him use it his advantage with Green Bay keying their defense on the passing game and have Minnesota turn more to the running game. Although the Vikings come into this matchup off their first loss of the season at Pittsburgh, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor may be the key to sweeping the regular season against the Packers as the Green Bay defense has been worse this season against the run than the pass.
I also feel that both coaching staffs will make adjustments from the Week 4 matchup and this should translate into making it more difficult for each team to move the ball. You may also see Favre a little more conservative than usual in not wanting to risk embarrassing interceptions in his return to Lambeau like the one this past weekend in Pittsburgh that sealed defeat for his Vikings. In some ways, the Vikings being handed their first loss in that kind of way on Sunday will only help them going into Green Bay this week and the rest of the season. And it will help cash the under this week as well.
Ravens favored to hand Broncos their first defeat
The lines in Denver Broncos games has been a broken record most of the season as again they find themselves as an underdog despite an undefeated record. Pinnacle and The Greek both opened with the Baltimore Ravens as four-point favorites as they host Denver with both teams coming off a bye week. Both teams went into their bye week in opposite directions as the Broncos kept their winning for the season going while the Ravens dropped three straight.
With two weeks to get ready, I feel the Ravens will finally end their losing streak and as well as put Denver’s winning streak to its own end. While the Denver defense will be a challenge for Joe Flacco and the Raven offense, I feel the Broncos will be coming east too overconfident and could not have had a bye week at a worse time. Even with the Ravens having a revenge game against the Cincinnati Bengals coming up the following week, I feel the focus will be there to defeat Denver making me willing to lay the points here.
Another rematch in Week 8: Jets and Dolphins clash in the Meadowlands
Just a few weeks ago, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins met on Monday night where the supposedly stellar defense on both sides did not show up. Miami pulled out a 31-27 victory thanks to a late touchdown from Ronnie Brown and the Jets will be looking for revenge this week. The Jets defense also looked impressive shutting out the Raiders in Oakland on Sunday.
That shutout likely could have inflated the line a bit for their matchup this week, but with the Dolphins playing better ball since the start of the season they only find themselves as four point road underdogs here when they had been three point underdogs at home to the Jets previously. With reasons on both sides that line value is just not there, the total sitting at 40 may be what to focus on and taking the under figuring the defense we should have seen in Week 5 comes through for one team or the other this Sunday.
Will the bye week help the winless but favored Titans?
The Tennessee Titans dropped to 0-6 two weeks ago after a crushing defeat by the Indianapolis Colts. With nowhere to go but up and nothing to lose off their bye week, the oddsmakers have favored the Titans to win at home this week against an inconsistent Jacksonville Jaguars team.
Even with every game seeming to be a revenge game for Tennessee this season, I am not sure the motivation will be enough to have a chance against the Jaguars. Although Jacksonville went into their bye week with a win, the victory was only by a field goal in overtime against the St. Louis Rams who the Jaguars should have had an easier time with. Despite already beating the Titans once, I feel Jacksonville will be up for this game and that problems for the Titans will continue.
Saints are heavy chalk next Monday when Falcons fly into New Orleans
With the Saints continuing their undefeated record on Sunday, the line in their first matchup against the Atlanta Falcons this season has made them favored by nine points. I feel this is too high for a divisional opponent like Atlanta who lost by only four points to the Saints in the Superdome last year. Matt Ryan threw for more yards than Drew Brees that day and should be able to keep it close again this year.
No question it should be a high scoring battle and with some touchdowns back and fourth, and nine points is too good to pass up. I am also sure the Saints will be a popular choice to include in teasers – and make the sportsbooks rich if they should lose outright – we know what side is best to be on here.
Good luck with getting your bankroll built this week and remember to get in early on some of these numbers before you cost yourself an advantage.