RJ's Week 7 NFL Picks

dhicks2010 · 10-25-09, 03:18 AM

like 1,2, and 3...but not 4 and 5

mwhjr1988 · 10-25-09, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by dhicks2010

like 1,2, and 3...but not 4 and 5

i agree...

RJ89 · 10-25-09, 03:34 AM

Thanks for the input, I'll add my poorly worded writeups later.

Indecent · 10-25-09, 03:36 AM

My computer system picked these 5 as the best games of the week, but I too differ on 4 and 5...

Good luck on 1-3!

RJ89 · 10-25-09, 03:51 AM

Yeah, that definitely seems like the consensus, but I'm way too stuborn on the picks. Good luck!

RJ89 · 10-25-09, 04:03 AM

1:00 Games

Main Play
Indianapolis (-13.5) over St. Louis (-115) 2 units
Looking at St. Louis’s earlier games, their offense only had some success against teams like GB and Jacksonville, who struggle to get pressure on the QB. Indianapolis on the otherhand is excellent at this, and they also have a good secondary (which is getting Bob Sanders back) that will prevent big plays, so I expect St. Louis’s passing game to be completely ineffective. This will allow the Colts to focus on Steven Jackson who has yet to score a touchdown this year. The Rams defense doesn’t have what it takes to stop the Colts and the Colts should easily cover as long as Manning doesn’t get injured.

New England (-15) over Tampa Bay (-110) 2 units
Just like the Colts game, the Patriots should easily cover as long as Brady doesn’t get injured. Having said that, this is more of a play on how bad the Bucs are, than how good the Patriots are. The Bucs D are allowing huge numbers to every QB they play against, even Jason Cambell. Talib, who may be their best player, won’t be 100% physically or mentally because his hamstring problem and he just got arrested for punching a taxi driver, and now he’ll have to defend Randy Moss. The Bucs are also allowing a lot of rush yards, so they’ll have trouble stopping the Patriots after they take Brady out. On offense, the Bucs are showing signs of life, since Josh Johnson (unlike Leftwich) is actually apt to make some plays. However, his receivers are terrible, and he has been prone to throw interceptions. To add on to all of the Patriots advantages, they actually arrived in London a day earlier so I presume they’ll be better prepared. I just can’t see the Bucs keeping this game close.

Cleveland (+9) over Green Bay (-105) 1.5 units
The Packers are playing against the Vikings at home next week in what many of their fans and players will consider to be their biggest game of the year so I think they definitely will be looking ahead to that game. In addition to this Chad Clifton will be out again for the Packers, who have allowed more sacks than any other team in the NFL. The Browns have a better defense than the Lions, and they’ll do a better job at taking advantage of this. Aaron Rodgers won’t have enough time to get the ball to his best receivers on a consistent basis. In addition to this, the Packers running game hasn’t been that effective for the most part. On the other side of the ball, I think the Browns have a decent chance to move the ball, since they have a good offensive line and Derek Anderson seems to play better at home. The Browns also have a big edge in special teams Because of all this, I think the Browns should be able to keep this game within a touchdown. And finally, I know that 12 players came down with the flu and this caused a spike in the line, but it now appears like it was much ado about nothing and most of those players will be able to play.

RJ89 · 10-25-09, 04:13 AM

4:00 Games
Main play
Miami (+6.5) over New Orleans (Even) 2 units
This is a really interesting matchup between a team that is possibly the best team in the NFL and one that I feel is one of the most underrated. The Saints are coming off a huge win, and have a huge game next week against the Falcons, so this is a possible letdown/ lookahead game for them. I don’t think they’ll be able to bring that same intensity level to this game. On the otherhand, this is a huge game for Miami which needs to keep up with New England if they have any chance to win the division. An interesting stat I found is that the Dolphins actually have the highest 3rd down conversion rate, while the Saints D has the 2nd highest rate at stopping 3rd down attempts. The Dolphins will be able to run on the Saints so they will be in good position on 3rd downs. The Dolphins running game can wear down most teams, and it should be able to keep Brees off the field for most of the game. The Saints will have trouble running the ball going against one of the best run defenses. The problem for the Dolphins on defense is that they will obviously have some trouble stopping the passing game of the Saints. The Saints have one of the best OL’s and the Dolphins will have a tough time generating pressure. I do think that their defense will be helped by the fact that they had a bye last week. So basically in this game I give an edge to both offenses, and as long as the fired up Dolphins team doesn’t turn the ball over and convert on red zone opportunities like they’ve done in the past two games, they should be able to keep the game really close.

Atlanta (+4) over Dallas (-110) 2 units
Looking at the matchups, it really looks like Atlanta should win the game. Their defense has been surprisingly good, and is going against a Dallas offense that has been struggling. Marion Barber isn’t 100% since he has a mild quad injury and the coach still wants to use him as the main back despite this. Romo has been inconsistent and won’t be able to carry the offense without an effective running game. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys will have trouble stopping the Falcons. The Cowboys safeties usually play man defense, and the Falcons receivers have been able to take advantage of this against other teams. With a great OL, Matt Ryan should have time to find his receivers. The Cowboys will also have trouble stopping the run. The week off probably helped Dallas, but the Falcons have just played at a higher level so far this year than the Cowboys, so the Falcons should definitely at the very least keep it really close and maybe win the game.

RJ89 · 10-25-09, 04:29 AM

Impulsive 7-point Teaser (1 unit to win 5 units):
1. Carolina/ Buffalo – Over 29.5
2. Atlanta (+11) over Dallas
3. Indianapolis (-7) over St. Louis
4. Cincinnati (+7) over Chicago
5. Washington (+14) over Philadelphia
6. San Francisco (+10) over Houston

I’m adding this teaser because I like to waste a unit each week on underdogs or teasers.
In the Carolina/ Buffalo game, I like both offenses since neither team can stop the run. The weather is also supposed to be really nice in Charlotte tomorrow. I can’t see Atlanta or San Francisco getting blown out. I like Cincinnati’s chances to win, and I can’t see them losing by a lot. Indy has too many advantages over St. Louis to not win by 3 TD’s. And for how horribly Washington’s been playing, at least they haven’t been getting blown out, and now they’re playing an Eagles team that can’t protect their QB. The Redskins should be able to keep it kind of close.