Very frustrating end to Week 6 with 3 special team touchdowns killing my under, but it happens I guess. I'm a lowly 3-5 over the last two weeks, but if a couple breaks had gone our way that could easily be 5-3. I'll try not to worry too much about it and get the ship righted this week. I'm pretty happy with sitting at 18-8 ATS with one week to go until my system is ready to kick off, so let's get things going in a positive direction again this week and then really hit it hard from Week 8 to the Superbowl!
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2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS
Overall: 137-97-3 ATS -
Points for the wins last week, Kroy. Chin up! Onward and upward.Comment -
hey kroy, i'm excited to hear about your upcoming system. i'm assuming you have to wait until week 8 just to have good numbers to do any analysis. i'll be anxious to see it and use it to compare my picks. excellent start to the season so far so keep it up manComment -
BOL for this week kroy. hope ur system plays and handicappin skills put together will get u back on track.Comment -
Good luck as always Tim, lookin forward to your insight.Comment -
I know your always challenging yourself to do better, but 3rd place in Beat the Prick right now is quit the accomplishment!
I know it hasn't reached the point in the season where you have your system picks, but are you doing so well with these, are you going to do both? Keep up the good work and thanks!
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I'm going to approach it a little differently than I did last season when it comes to my system. Last season I was looking at my system on Tuesday or Wednesday and then kind of building my plays around that, but in the playoffs when I had my 5-1 run I was capping on my own first and then looking at the system later in the week to see what aligned. So this season once I have it going I'll do something similar, and from time to time I'll definitely throw plays in there that my system doesn't necessarily agree with if I feel strongly about them. I feel like this method will help me filter out a lot of losers this year, and if it turns out I'm just leaving winners on the shelf I'll start posting what all my system plays are for you guys to see.I know your always challenging yourself to do better, but 3rd place in Beat the Prick right now is quit the accomplishment! I know it hasn't reached the point in the season where you have your system picks, but are you doing so well with these, are you going to do both? Keep up the good work and thanks!2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS
Overall: 137-97-3 ATSComment -
Here's what I'm liking for this week guys:
* Chicago Bears +1
Statistically, these are very similar teams. However, there are a few advantages that the Bears have that I think swing this game. Short and sweet version: the Bears have a much better return game, they convert their yards into points better (Given all of the redzone turnovers so far this season that speaks volumes), and their pass defense is much better. I think these pieces lead to a victory by the Bears on the road.
* New York/Oakland UNDER 34.5
It would be pretty easy to make an argument for Oakland being the worst offense in the league right now. They're 2nd worst in yards per pass attempt, 4th worst in yards per rush attempt, and 4th worst at turning their yards into points. They're the only team in the league that is bottom 8 in all of these categories, and a tough Jets' defense will do them no favors. I don't expect the loss of Kris Jenkins to affect the Jets much in this one. How does Oakland top 10 points in this one?
As far as the Jets are concerned, they're middle of the pack in terms of passing yards per attempt and turning yardage into points, their big strength thus far has been running the ball. Oakland has a middle of the pack defense on all levels, but always seems to play a bit more inspired at home. With a struggling Mark Sanchez, I don't see how the Jets can top 24 points. This game should go under for us, despite the line being set so low.
* New Orleans/Miami OVER 47.5
A lot of people are talking like this could be the week that the Saints flounder. They're coming off of a huge win, they're on the road, Miami has an effective rushing attack that should confuse the Saints, the pieces are in place for an upset. However, I simply cannot overlook the fact that Miami is 4th worst in the league currently at yards per pass attempt allowed. Drew Brees and company will absolutely eat them alive. The question is how well Miami will be able to keep drives alive to keep the ball out of Brees' hands. Miami has the 5th best rushing attack in the league, while New Orleans' rushing defense is middle of the pack. Perhaps Miami can spring an upset and top the Saints, but one way or another I can't see this point total going under. I don't like taking totals plays that the majority of the public is on, but the public should get rewarded in this case with a high scoring game.
* San Francisco/Houston OVER 44
Houston is proving every week that they simply cannot run the ball. They have the 3rd worst rushing attack in the NFL, and are up against the 2nd best rush defense in the NFL so far. To me, that looks like a recipe for them to move the ball through the air this game, keeping the clock from running too much. Schaub should also make a dumb mistake or two during the game, which most likely will result in some easy SF points.
The San Francisco offense has had trouble moving the ball through the air so far, but despite struggling to gain some yardage they're still very efficient at turning their yards into points (although some of this can be contributed to special teams and defensive points). However, a defense that has been that opportunistic in the past should continue to be in the future. San Fran also sees the return of Gore to their lineup this week, a huge plus given that they're playing against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Not to mention that they'll have yet another weapon on the field for the first time this week with Crabtree. All of the stats pointed to the over despite no Gore the last few weeks and no Crabtree the whole season, and these two factors will only help the over become more likely.
Good luck this week guys! System kicks off next week!2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS
Overall: 137-97-3 ATSComment -
Good write-ups.
I'm agreement with everything listed here, but I'm still having a few qualms with taking the under in the NYJ/OAK game because I don't believe I've read anything credible as to how Asomugha's eye is affecting his play right now.
Also:
- Kris Jenkins is a walrus, but ---- Sione Pouha is serviceable, and is not as integral to this defense as seen in more "traditional" okie fronts.
- Jerricho Cotchery and Brad Smith will be out again, so: mulligan (re: Asomugha).
- Robert Gallery is the most important part of Oakland's running game, and is still out this week.
- San Francisco rank in the lower quarter of the league in terms of defending #1 WRs (per Football Outsiders), so their allotment of concern will be more thin regarding Walter, Anderson, Daniels, Slaton, etc. Additionally, Houston is the 'worst' team in the league in terms of terms of managing #1 wideouts.
- Scott Fujita missing this game may be the most impactful angle here when deciding on the over/under for MIA/NO. He is the leader of that defense, in my opinion, and his unique skill set will be missed. Malcolm Jenkins should be a game-time scratch again.Comment
