Some books slower than others to move early Week 7 lines
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
By: Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
With the NFL’s Week 7 featuring some popular betting choices, lines have moved quick in some cases but a few bookmakers are slower to move the numbers for certain matchups.
As sportsbooks have the vig in their favor, some can afford to be more opinionated than others and this can happen just as much early and mid-week as on game day. Week 7 is no exception and this handicapper takes a look at some wagers to keep an eye on.
Sunday night is not only about watching NBC for that evening’s game to end off a full slate of NFL action that day, but also about getting started on the following week’s matchups. Although most of the pro football schedule allows up to a week in thinking about betting opinions for games on the board, the real professionals have to start thoughts on next week during Sunday afternoon in the middle of the current week’s gridiron battles. This is so they are ready to bet opening lines for the following week as soon as they come out on Sunday night as some numbers can be good to take an early position on.
A few examples from this past week showed why it can be important to get down early as spreads and totals can move quick in some cases while a few sportsbooks interject their own opinions taking more time to change them. In Cincinnati when the Bengals played the Texans, I advised everyone last week to get in early on the Over as the total was at 45 and 44½ at the beginning of the week but closed as high as 46½. The end result had the game falling on combined scoring of 45 points which can be one of the key total numbers at times, and early Over players cashed or pushed while late backers lost.
Bookmakers in mid-season form for Week 7
With Week 7 numbers up for a couple of days already, some bookmakers are clearly getting more confident with their early lines than when the season began. The Greek is one sportsbook that has a reputation for getting numbers up fast and taking the highest limits on them at the same time. They opened the game between the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams favoring the Colts by 13 but by Monday had the number down to 12 ½ and have kept it there at press time. Almost all other sportsbooks have kept the number at 13 and that extra half point is more than enough to keep any big Rams action from coming in. It could mean that The Greek has an opinion that the underdog is the play there or that early big bets came in on the Rams and that some more action on the Colts is wanted.
In what could be one of the most wagered-on games of the week, Bookmaker and The Greek are sharing an early opinion on the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers. Each opened the betting by favoring the home chalk Steelers by 5 and 4½ points, respectively, but most other sportsbooks opened at a lower number of only 4. 5Dimes in Costa Rica even opened this game favoring Pittsburgh by only 3 ½ points and took in action for nearly a whole day at that number before moving it up to 4 on Monday. This shows that there is a split opinion among these sportsbooks, but I feel following Bookmaker and The Greek’s number means more as they will take higher betting limits than most others – even early in the week.
Moving early lines on, off, or through key numbers is also interesting to watch as bookmakers want to limit their exposure of getting middle. Most sportsbooks opened the wagering on the Atlanta Falcons-Dallas Cowboys came favoring Dallas by 3 points. With the Falcons playing in the Sunday night game against the Bears, this line did not come out until Monday around the globe as bookmakers can be concerned that an injury or that how a team performs on a highly exposed broadcast can alter bettor opinions quickly. In this case, even after a win by the Falcons, early action was still on the Cowboys when the line came out pushing the chalk up to being a 4 point favorite.
With Dallas off a bye week and back at home this is favoring the early action despite Atlanta being 4-1 both straight up and against the spread this season. The Greek has a slightly different opinion than most others being slower to move the line and holding at 3 ½ points but adjusting the vig to -115 on Dallas. They are looking to avoid taking Falcons money here as most underdog backers would rather have the 4 points even at a higher -110 vig elsewhere.
Early betting on Week 7 totals
Totals for Week 7 have mostly seen early action pushing numbers downward with the Vikings-Steelers game being an exception. After Minnesota putting up big numbers once again on Sunday, gamblers have been quick to back the over this week moving the total from opening at 44½ to as much as 46 only a couple of days later.
However, one thing to keep in mind is that most games played by the Vikings this season have been in domes and a fact like this can be quick to escape the minds of some impulsive early betting that looks to get an edge. Pittsburgh has had its last four games go over the total which is another factor for an inflating number here but bettors are quick to forget that the Steelers still have one of the top three defenses in the league. I would wait for this to go up and consider the under at what could be a favorable value on Sunday.
Another exception that could move the total upward more is the game being held in England this week between the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The total opened as low as 43 ½ and 44, but is already at a solid 45 among all the major sportsbooks. After such an impressive performance by the Patriots on Sunday even in poor weather conditions, it makes gamblers wonder about what bigger damage they could do on the scoreboard when facing better conditions and another winless opponent like last week. Look for this number to keep moving north as the two teams travel across the pond.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
By: Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
With the NFL’s Week 7 featuring some popular betting choices, lines have moved quick in some cases but a few bookmakers are slower to move the numbers for certain matchups.
As sportsbooks have the vig in their favor, some can afford to be more opinionated than others and this can happen just as much early and mid-week as on game day. Week 7 is no exception and this handicapper takes a look at some wagers to keep an eye on.
Sunday night is not only about watching NBC for that evening’s game to end off a full slate of NFL action that day, but also about getting started on the following week’s matchups. Although most of the pro football schedule allows up to a week in thinking about betting opinions for games on the board, the real professionals have to start thoughts on next week during Sunday afternoon in the middle of the current week’s gridiron battles. This is so they are ready to bet opening lines for the following week as soon as they come out on Sunday night as some numbers can be good to take an early position on.
A few examples from this past week showed why it can be important to get down early as spreads and totals can move quick in some cases while a few sportsbooks interject their own opinions taking more time to change them. In Cincinnati when the Bengals played the Texans, I advised everyone last week to get in early on the Over as the total was at 45 and 44½ at the beginning of the week but closed as high as 46½. The end result had the game falling on combined scoring of 45 points which can be one of the key total numbers at times, and early Over players cashed or pushed while late backers lost.
Bookmakers in mid-season form for Week 7
With Week 7 numbers up for a couple of days already, some bookmakers are clearly getting more confident with their early lines than when the season began. The Greek is one sportsbook that has a reputation for getting numbers up fast and taking the highest limits on them at the same time. They opened the game between the Indianapolis Colts and St. Louis Rams favoring the Colts by 13 but by Monday had the number down to 12 ½ and have kept it there at press time. Almost all other sportsbooks have kept the number at 13 and that extra half point is more than enough to keep any big Rams action from coming in. It could mean that The Greek has an opinion that the underdog is the play there or that early big bets came in on the Rams and that some more action on the Colts is wanted.
In what could be one of the most wagered-on games of the week, Bookmaker and The Greek are sharing an early opinion on the matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers. Each opened the betting by favoring the home chalk Steelers by 5 and 4½ points, respectively, but most other sportsbooks opened at a lower number of only 4. 5Dimes in Costa Rica even opened this game favoring Pittsburgh by only 3 ½ points and took in action for nearly a whole day at that number before moving it up to 4 on Monday. This shows that there is a split opinion among these sportsbooks, but I feel following Bookmaker and The Greek’s number means more as they will take higher betting limits than most others – even early in the week.
Moving early lines on, off, or through key numbers is also interesting to watch as bookmakers want to limit their exposure of getting middle. Most sportsbooks opened the wagering on the Atlanta Falcons-Dallas Cowboys came favoring Dallas by 3 points. With the Falcons playing in the Sunday night game against the Bears, this line did not come out until Monday around the globe as bookmakers can be concerned that an injury or that how a team performs on a highly exposed broadcast can alter bettor opinions quickly. In this case, even after a win by the Falcons, early action was still on the Cowboys when the line came out pushing the chalk up to being a 4 point favorite.
With Dallas off a bye week and back at home this is favoring the early action despite Atlanta being 4-1 both straight up and against the spread this season. The Greek has a slightly different opinion than most others being slower to move the line and holding at 3 ½ points but adjusting the vig to -115 on Dallas. They are looking to avoid taking Falcons money here as most underdog backers would rather have the 4 points even at a higher -110 vig elsewhere.
Early betting on Week 7 totals
Totals for Week 7 have mostly seen early action pushing numbers downward with the Vikings-Steelers game being an exception. After Minnesota putting up big numbers once again on Sunday, gamblers have been quick to back the over this week moving the total from opening at 44½ to as much as 46 only a couple of days later.
However, one thing to keep in mind is that most games played by the Vikings this season have been in domes and a fact like this can be quick to escape the minds of some impulsive early betting that looks to get an edge. Pittsburgh has had its last four games go over the total which is another factor for an inflating number here but bettors are quick to forget that the Steelers still have one of the top three defenses in the league. I would wait for this to go up and consider the under at what could be a favorable value on Sunday.
Another exception that could move the total upward more is the game being held in England this week between the New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The total opened as low as 43 ½ and 44, but is already at a solid 45 among all the major sportsbooks. After such an impressive performance by the Patriots on Sunday even in poor weather conditions, it makes gamblers wonder about what bigger damage they could do on the scoreboard when facing better conditions and another winless opponent like last week. Look for this number to keep moving north as the two teams travel across the pond.