Howdy--
I'm a customer of 'John Morrison's' NFL Champ Selections (put in quotes because we all know that's not his real name!) of two weeks, and thus far, have taken in a few good wins playing straight bets.
However, I'm poking around the forums and hearing horror stories of <40% strike rates and since he doesn't publish independently verifiable statistics relating to his longer term strike averages, I'm getting a little nervous about ramping up the bets to the point where a decent profit might actually be achieved.
Based on the odds offered by Pinnacle and a few other books for NFL games, I drew up a chart to see what I might earn based on $500 straight bets, and figured that'd be somewhere around $400 per game.
Looking at that chart...
$500 stakes, $400 win
-------------------
SR
10% - WIN $400, LOSS $4500 = -$4100
20% - WIN $800, LOSS $4000 = -$3200
30% - WIN $1200, LOSS $3500 = -$2300
40% - WIN $1600, LOSS $3000 = -$1400
50% - WIN $2000, LOSS $2500 = -$500
60% - WIN $2400, LOSS $2000 = $400 *
70% - WIN $2800, LOSS $1500 = $1300 *
80% - WIN $3200, LOSS $1000 = $2200 *
90% - WIN $3600, LOSS $500 = $3100 *
100% - WIN $4000, LOSS $0 = $4000 *
... I also figured I'd need a minimum consistent strike rate of somewhere around 60% to cut a decent weekly profit... nudging closer to 70% would offer some solidarity and would double an initial betting bank of $5K in 1-2 months.
My question is, simply -
Has anyone found a service they have used to reliably see a 60-70% strike rate over the season?
I'd happily pay $500-1000 for a season pack if I could just trust the damn thing beforehand. Too many sites makes promises, but I haven't seen any independent tipsters verifying their claims.
I'm betting someone here has?
Thx! -J
I'm a customer of 'John Morrison's' NFL Champ Selections (put in quotes because we all know that's not his real name!) of two weeks, and thus far, have taken in a few good wins playing straight bets.
However, I'm poking around the forums and hearing horror stories of <40% strike rates and since he doesn't publish independently verifiable statistics relating to his longer term strike averages, I'm getting a little nervous about ramping up the bets to the point where a decent profit might actually be achieved.
Based on the odds offered by Pinnacle and a few other books for NFL games, I drew up a chart to see what I might earn based on $500 straight bets, and figured that'd be somewhere around $400 per game.
Looking at that chart...
$500 stakes, $400 win
-------------------
SR
10% - WIN $400, LOSS $4500 = -$4100
20% - WIN $800, LOSS $4000 = -$3200
30% - WIN $1200, LOSS $3500 = -$2300
40% - WIN $1600, LOSS $3000 = -$1400
50% - WIN $2000, LOSS $2500 = -$500
60% - WIN $2400, LOSS $2000 = $400 *
70% - WIN $2800, LOSS $1500 = $1300 *
80% - WIN $3200, LOSS $1000 = $2200 *
90% - WIN $3600, LOSS $500 = $3100 *
100% - WIN $4000, LOSS $0 = $4000 *
... I also figured I'd need a minimum consistent strike rate of somewhere around 60% to cut a decent weekly profit... nudging closer to 70% would offer some solidarity and would double an initial betting bank of $5K in 1-2 months.
My question is, simply -
Has anyone found a service they have used to reliably see a 60-70% strike rate over the season?
I'd happily pay $500-1000 for a season pack if I could just trust the damn thing beforehand. Too many sites makes promises, but I haven't seen any independent tipsters verifying their claims.
I'm betting someone here has?
Thx! -J