MNF Sharp Moves, or Lack There Of..

Robust · 10-05-09, 04:42 PM

and on a side note.. thinking about taking the over.. now I know the over usually means 'square' but since most of the threads I've read on here like the under, the OVER has to be the play.. fading the public..

and YES.. this board was about 80% public in this weeks picks.. (and I was one of the morons along for the big losses.. lol)

good luck!

Robust

SmackdownV · 10-05-09, 04:42 PM

I'm on that play with you.

Too much Hype on Favre tonight........Difficult to go against it.......but you HAVE to like GB in this spot.

og4667 · 10-05-09, 04:58 PM

good post. The line is now up to -5 for Vikings. Too much hype on vikings is fishy. I have started somewhat of a new system that tracks where the money is going and then basing my pick on how often the public is right in backing a particular team and I have some intersting info on this game.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring MINNESOTA in this game. The betting public is correct when moving the money line in GREEN BAY games 28% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-18). Also As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game. The betting public is correct when moving the total in MINNESOTA games 32.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (10-21).

So, based on this info the picks would be Packers plus the points and the OVER! Personally I am on the Over, still deciding about Packers. I really think the total is the way to go in this game, because both QB's are going to be playing their best and AP should be running the ball well and ARodgers should be throwing for some touchdowns to his solid recieving core, but as far as a winner...I am leaning towards Vikings but I don't think they cover. GL folks.

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:02 PM

and the stats..

Passing Stats
Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sack/Lost Rating
Packers 90 51 714 56.7 7.9 4 4.4 0 0.0 53 12/92 97.2
Opponent 94 51 649 54.3 6.9 6 6.4 7 7.4 68 5/28 66.3

Vikings 96 62 580 64.6 6.0 5 5.2 1 1.0 36 9/59 94.1
Opponent 90 54 552 60.0 6.1 4 4.4 4 4.4 31 8/49 73.9

Rushing Stats
Player No Yds Avg Long TD
Packers 77 317 4.1 17 4
Opponent 98 386 3.9 20 1

Vikings 89 431 4.8 64 4
Opponent 80 276 3.5 15 0

Receiving Stats
Player No Yds Avg Long TD
Packers 51 714 14.0 53 4
Opponent 51 649 12.7 68 6

Vikings 62 580 9.4 36 5
Opponent 54 552 10.2 31 4

Packers complete less passes, but gain significant more yardage than vikings. But their pass defense allows many short completions. Packers out rush their opponents, but Min has better rush stats.. both scored 4 TDs rushing.. GB allowed one.

Receiving is their forte here in the stats for GB.. 14 yards per catch and hold their opponents to less.. This stat is better than Min at 9.4 and, as you can see, the vikings let their opponents average 10.2 yards per catch.. thats a FIRST DOWN every try (on average)..

Air it out, and GB wins this.. but it will be close..

do you see something in the stats that I don't?

Robust

pimike · 10-05-09, 05:02 PM

Thanks Robust, nice job. I am just going to watch and enjoy. I do have money on the under 5 sacks for the game.

artist · 10-05-09, 05:03 PM

The o/u line went down

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by og4667

good post. The line is now up to -5 for Vikings. Too much hype on vikings is fishy. I have started somewhat of a new system that tracks where the money is going and then basing my pick on how often the public is right in backing a particular team and I have some intersting info on this game.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring MINNESOTA in this game. The betting public is correct when moving the money line in GREEN BAY games 28% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (7-18). Also As indicated by the movement of the total, the betting public is favoring the UNDER in this game. The betting public is correct when moving the total in MINNESOTA games 32.3% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (10-21).

So, based on this info the picks would be Packers plus the points and the OVER! Personally I am on the Over, still deciding about Packers. I really think the total is the way to go in this game, because both QB's are going to be playing their best and AP should be running the ball well and ARodgers should be throwing for some touchdowns to his solid recieving core, but as far as a winner...I am leaning towards Vikings but I don't think they cover. GL folks.

thats why fading the public is so profitable!

good luck!

Robust

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by artist

The o/u line went down

the public is betting it under.. if you like the over, wait til 30min before and pound.. if you like the under, bet it NOW!

good luck!

Robust

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:11 PM

Originally posted by pimike

Thanks Robust, nice job. I am just going to watch and enjoy. I do have money on the under 5 sacks for the game.

If i am reading the stats correctly (I did not pay attention to sacks all week.. doh!), packers average 4 and allow 1, Min has 3 and allow over 2 per game.. 5 is real sharp line..

i wish you luck.. but 5.5 would make me feel safer

Robust

artist · 10-05-09, 05:13 PM

I say Under everyone (public) saying it's a qb showdown who cares under will win

ZBOIZ · 10-05-09, 05:16 PM

I have the Vikes tonight. The Packs have an improved defense but there run defense is struggling. With the Packers respecting the run game I expect Favre to make somer conservative plays in the air. These divisional games are won up front and I think the Vikes have the advantage.

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by artist

I say Under everyone (public) saying it's a qb showdown who cares under will win

if the line is going down.. and everyone says its a QB showdown, then these two statements dont add up.. a QB showdown is OVER.. the line is going UNDER..

won't press ya to go over..

but I wish you luck!!

Robust

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:18 PM

Originally posted by ZBOIZ

I have the Vikes tonight. The Packs have an improved defense but there run defense is struggling. With the Packers respecting the run game I expect Favre to make somer conservative plays in the air. These divisional games are won up front and I think the Vikes have the advantage.

if this is the case, then Min has a shot.. but If farve tries to 'show off' or be the 'hero'?

I'll go against the public and take my chances just like the rest of us.. lol

good luck bro!

Robust

artist · 10-05-09, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Robust

the public is betting it under.. if you like the over, wait til 30min before and pound.. if you like the under, bet it NOW!

good luck!

Robust

I can't do that even if I wanted to. My line close at 7! So yea robust I'm going against you again and I hope the same result happen again haha I can't say gl since my money Is riding on gb under haha but thanks I might need luck on gb

mmike032 · 10-05-09, 05:22 PM

also fading the public here
but waiting to get as many points as possible

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by artist

I can't do that even if I wanted to. My line close at 7! So yea robust I'm going against you again and I hope the same result happen again haha I can't say gl since my money Is riding on gb under haha but thanks I might need luck on gb

LOL!

we'll i'll tell you GOOD LUCK!!

Robust

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:28 PM

the total is moving back UP!!

Locking in at Over46. most places going to 46.5 now..
Still waiting on the Min line to show me something..

Robust

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Robust

the total is moving back UP!!

Locking in at Over46. most places going to 46.5 now..
Still waiting on the Min line to show me something..

Robust

doh! didn't make it.. now at 46.5 -110..

NO PLAY.. got there too late.. was at 45.5 at 2pm CST.. not gonna chase it up..

Robust

jsdjason · 10-05-09, 05:33 PM

Those of you taking GB to cover must be banking on some turnovers because they have been given many gifts off turnovers for easy points. If Minnesota takes care of the ball they cover and the under covers as well. Minnesota 21-13.

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:35 PM

shit! and whew!!!

just read the line.. I was backwards on it.. DOH!!

TOTALS - OVER/UNDER
09/27 20:19 46½ +100 / 46½ -110
09/27 20:48 46½ -107 / 46½ -103
09/27 22:11 46½ +100 / 46½ -110
09/28 08:25 46 -102 / 46 -108
09/28 11:05 46 +103 / 46 -113
09/28 11:15 45½ -102 / 45½ -108
09/28 15:38 46 -105 / 46 -105
09/29 14:17 45 -105 / 45 -105
09/29 16:12 45 -102 / 45 -108
09/29 17:52 45 -104 / 45 -106
10/01 17:03 45 -108 / 45 -102
10/01 18:43 45 -107 / 45 -103
10/02 19:07 45 -112 / 45 +102
10/02 19:13 45½ -103 / 45½ -107
10/02 19:17 45½ -102 / 45½ -108
10/02 19:22 45½ -103 / 45½ -107
10/03 09:43 45½ -106 / 45½ -104
10/05 01:28 45½ -108 / 45½ -102
10/05 11:28 45½ -110 / 45½ +100
10/05 11:48 45½ -113 / 45½ +103
10/05 13:18 46 -110 / 46 +100
10/05 13:23 46 -105 / 46 -105
10/05 17:27 46 -106 / 46 -104
10/05 18:12 46 -107 / 46 -103

early money was on the under (early = sharp) and stopped at 45.. late money is on the over (late = public).. if you like the under.. keep waiting!!

and for the record, SHARP MONEY IS ON THE UNDER..

my bad.. misinterpreted the line.. sorry for the error..

Robust

og4667 · 10-05-09, 05:36 PM

Even ESPN has PACKERS winning. I am suprised to see that, but read below
Scouts Inc. Position AdvantageQBRBWROLDLLBDBSTCoach

After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in this week's Packers-Vikings matchup.

1. The Packers must fill every gap on defense: When you watch the Minnesota run game, the thing that strikes you is how Adrian Peterson can change direction at the last second. Defenses are showing a lot of run blitzes versus the Vikings, but Peterson has a rare ability to press the hole and then bounce the play outside as he sees the hole fill. Green Bay must have great gap discipline and prevent Peterson from doing damage on cutback runs.
2. Green Bay must run: It is easy for the Packers to become a pass-happy group because they have so many weapons. To their credit, the Packers made a concerted effort to run the ball in Week 3. This is a lethal play-action passing game, and when there is the threat of the run, it really opens things up for Aaron Rodgers, especially versus a Minnesota defense that will attack the gaps when it reads the run.
3. Can the Packers' D hold up in the middle of the field? Green Bay has physical safeties who have a lot of responsibilities in run support in this game -- and both are less than 100 percent healthy. If they are forced to attack the inside to stop Peterson, Brett Favre should be able to make plays over the middle.
4. Packers need consistency on defense: The Packers have done an excellent job transitioning from a 4-3 to 3-4, and they are not playing as many tight man-to-man schemes as they did in the past. As good as the Packers are, they tend to make a couple mental errors in each game that lead to big passing plays. The Packers' D has also struggled to get off the field on third down.
5. Blitz pick-up key for Minnesota: Favre has been sacked nine times and hit on 19 occasions through three games, and defenses know that he is a stationary target. He plays behind a usually excellent run-blocking offensive line, but the line has struggled in one-on-one blocking situations, and it doesn't always seem to recognize where the blitzes are coming from. The Packers are not an all-out attack defense, but they can play some man schemes behind the blitz, and bringing pressure could also confuse the Vikings' blocking angles in the run game.
6. Which Vikings' D will show up? The Minnesota defense is usually terrific, but it is not playing at the top of its game right now -- in terms of run defense and contain. We don't see a lot of blitzes from the Vikings, but in the past they have really confused offensive blocking schemes with twists and stunts. The Packers' offensive line is really susceptible to active defensive fronts that will attack the gaps -- and if the Vikings do that in this game they will get excellent penetration.
7. Will the Vikings' D change up its zone looks? Minnesota is basically a Cover 2 defense that plays strong versus the run and doesn't give up a lot of big pass plays. However, the Vikings are not getting pressure by the guys up front (except DE Jared Allen), and that gives QBs good zones to exploit. San Francisco's Shaun Hill had a solid day versus this defense and Rodgers not only has more talent, but he also has more weapons at his disposal. This would be a good week for the Vikings to change up coverage looks with some combo schemes and maybe even some blitzes versus a suspect pass-blocking Green Bay offensive line.
8. Minnesota must stay balanced: The Vikings might be tempted to open up the passing game, but this is still a run-first offense with Peterson. The Vikings should use the run to set up the pass, and a lot of those passes should come off play-action. When Favre does pass, he should attack the middle of the field when Green Bay's safeties fill versus the run.
9. Minnesota must contain Rodgers: Rodgers has developed a scrambling element to his game and it will put added pressure on the Vikings' defense. Rodgers is a very effective deep passer, even off five-step drops, and he forces defensive backs to turn and run with his receivers. If the pass is not there, he can tuck the ball and run versus defenders who have their backs to the ball. He can scramble up the middle if the Vikings' defensive tackles rush wide and he is also a threat to run wide if the defensive ends don't play contain. Discipline is important for the Minnesota defense.
10. Key matchup: Green Bay LT Daryn Colledge vs. Allen: Colledge is a guard by trade, and his quickness and athleticism on an island could be a real problem versus the tenacious Allen, who has excellent quickness and an array of pass-rush moves. It's difficult to see how Green Bay can get away with not helping Colledge in pass protection with a tight end or back. If the Packers don't give Colledge help, Allen will dominate this matchup and Rodgers will get hit a lot from the backside. There's still a chance that Chad Clifton (ankle) could play, but with him being less than 100 percent, it's still a matchup that Allen should dominate.

PredictionGreen Bay 21
Minnesota 17

Robust · 10-05-09, 05:52 PM

good info og4667..

I am not liking that ESPN has GB to win.. lol.. but I will follow sharp money

Robust

rousea · 10-05-09, 06:13 PM

That's actually Scouts Inc.'s score prediction not ESPN's. I realize Scouts Inc is on ESPN.com, but saying ESPN predicts GB to win is misleading.

Actually, of all their "experts," 10 of 11 predicted a Minnesota win. Granted, they pick the games straight up and not against the spread.

I think Minnesota wins by 10 personally. GB struggled with Chicago at home and then lost to Cincinnati at home.

Their most impressive win (scoring margin wise) is against a hapless St. Louis team.

I'll say Minny 27, GB 17.

Robust · 10-05-09, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by rousea

That's actually Scouts Inc.'s score prediction not ESPN's. I realize Scouts Inc is on ESPN.com, but saying ESPN predicts GB to win is misleading.

Actually, of all their "experts," 10 of 11 predicted a Minnesota win. Granted, they pick the games straight up and not against the spread.

I think Minnesota wins by 10 personally. GB struggled with Chicago at home and then lost to Cincinnati at home.

Their most impressive win (scoring margin wise) is against a hapless St. Louis team.

I'll say Minny 27, GB 17.

very good info

thanks!

Robust

hornet0202 · 10-05-09, 06:36 PM

Very good info in this post. Posts like these are the reason i come to this forum. Thanks.

Robust · 10-05-09, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by hornet0202

Very good info in this post. Posts like these are the reason i come to this forum. Thanks.

Robust

artist · 10-05-09, 09:06 PM

You got this one robust wow man gb is giving this one to favre!!!! Whack!!!!!!!!!

dodger33 · 10-06-09, 03:46 AM

wow farve looked about as good as he has ever been. i don't know if he can keep this up but lasers falling off his back foot, exploiting weak coverages, and perfectly placed balls. if he can play like that minny might be going to the super bowl.

Robust · 10-06-09, 05:12 AM

riding a losing strewak this week.. sheesh!!

congrats on the win Minny backers!!

but don't try to tell me you weren't shittin' in your pants in that last minute.. LOL

ahh well..

good luck to ALL next week!

Robust

DaChosen1FoSho · 10-06-09, 07:20 AM

I'll be the first to say I was sweating it at -4 in the final minute....

DeluxeLiner · 10-06-09, 07:58 AM

Robust, taking +5 packers I think was a good bet. Think you had the edge, and I think Packers o-line underperformed. Good bets aren't locks. You know that.

og4667 · 10-06-09, 11:30 AM

Packers O line got jacked all game. At least the Over hit!