Kroyrunner's Week 3 NFL Thread (8-1 ATS YTD)

[kroyrunner89]

I've had a solid two weeks to start, looking to keep the momentum going forward this week. Although a 2-1 week is boring, I'd rather be conservative and win than force plays. I've begun working on my plays for Week 3, until I get them posted up at the end of the week feel free to chime in with questions, comments, or words of encouragement guys! It'd be nice to get this thread a little more lively!

[kroyrunner89]

My first sweep of the lines the following jumped out at me:
Det +6.5
Hou -3.5
Jacksonville/Houston OVER 45.5
SF +7
NE -4
Pit -4.5
Oakland/Denver UNDER 36

I usually open every week taking a look at lines that jump out at me, then add and subtract from the list as the week goes on. As I research the plays, I find that I can make a good enough case for some to lock them in, and others I decide to leave on the shelf. The ones I've left on the shelf are a nasty 6-8 so far, so don't read too much into me liking these plays early (Some of these won't even be on my list by the end of the week). What matters in the end is what I go with in the end. This is just plays that seem worth looking more into early.

[bombCanada]

Hi Kroy, I'll start by saying that I like your style... conservative, understated, thoughtful, risk aware. I like your focus on solid picks and that you stay away from money management. I size my bets, no one else. I know my risk tolerance, my pain threshold. Every capper picks at something less than 100%... you will have losing bets. However, if you manage your money correctly, you should never ever blow out, barring a 100 game losing streak, which while not impossible is just as unlikely as a 100 game winning streak. It's the height of stupidity to blow out because of a money management mistake.

That said I'll react to your proposed picks:

Det +6.5 - I spent 10 years walking through the mud to get to the Silverdome. The Lions let me down then, and I still wouldn't bet on them to lose by only 2 FGs. Do you think the Redskins can't win by just 1 TD ?

Hou -3.5
Jacksonville/Houston OVER 45.5 - I guess I can see Houston winning with home field advantage. If it goes over it'll be because of Houston.

SF +7 - should be a good game, interested in your evaluation of this line. SF teased up to +20 should be as close to a lock as can be had.

NE -4 - oof. Brady having trouble getting it done.

Pit -4.5 - I'll take it. They're due to break out.

Oakland/Denver UNDER 36 - tough call. I'll look forward to your reasoning on this one.

Good luck!

[angelodebo]

I'm not sure were I'll be placing my cash this week..But I do like the under in the Oakland/Denver 36. The Raiders are one dimensional on offense..all they can do is run the ball. I'm sure Denver will put eight men in the box and force Jamarcus Russell to throw..That equals alot of punts for the Raiders. Plus Denver's defense is ranked #2 as of this week..

Raiders defense has been solid all year..They shut down San Diego and shut down KC..

= very few points will scored!

[kroyrunner89]

A couple more plays on my radar now:
Indy +1.5
Stl +6.5

I doubt I'll be adding anything else to this list this week, so now begins the process of trimming it down to just the winners.

[MrMonkey]

Keep it coming Kroy! Still trying myself, see how it goes this week!

[kroyrunner89]

Love Giants -6.5, this is likely going to be a play

[kroyrunner89]

Sorry this us up late guys, the forum was down last night when I was trying to post. Here's what I posted at a couple other forums last night and on my site:

Week 3 is finally here, bringing with it a lot of very interesting match-ups. After doing my usual routine throughout the week to decide which plays I like and narrow them down, I wound up with a few more plays then I expected. Although a couple of these have the looks of traps and it makes a a little nervous, I'm going to go ahead and ride them and hope for the best. When everything is said and done, I just can't make a case for why they shouldn't be a play, and if I think I see value there I'm going to take it. I'd be stunned if I saw another undefeated week, so please don't take these plays and throw them into parlays and hope for the best. This is a much tighter set of lines then in Week 1. As usual, I recommend just flat betting these plays and looking ahead to where you want to be at the end of the season, rather than where you want to be after this week. So, here are the plays I'm looking at for this week:

• New York Giants -6.5

The only way I see the Giants losing this game or failing to cover is if they suffer a letdown after their dramatic win over the Cowboys last week. However, this hasn't been characteristic of the Giants' teams of the past couple years. The last two seasons, when the Giants have been coming off of a win against a division opponent, and faced a non-division opponent the next week, they've still cruised, going 3-0 and winning by just under 20 ppg (Against the Rams and Ravens last year, and the Jets in 2007). Against a terrible Tampa team, I'll trust that this team has similar character to the teams of years past and doesn't suffer the letdown I'm slightly worried about. I expect the Giants to roll over the Bucs, cruising to a win by at least two touchdowns.

• Pittsburgh/Cincinnati UNDER 37

For the first time in a while, the Bengals look like they have a good defense. A big part of their success shutting down the Green Bay attack was the constant pressure they had on Rogers, and the Steelers' offensive line isn't much better. The Steelers have already surrendered 6 sacks in two games, while Cincinnati has pummeled their opponents for 9 sacks in two games. With the running game struggling, the Steelers will likely be a little more throw heavy, giving the Bengals more chances to get to Big Ben. With their QB under constant pressure, the Steelers shouldn't be able to put many good drives together, keeping their point total down.

As far as the Bengals' offense goes, I don't expect much better points wise. Their yards per pass and rush attempt are nothing spectacular, and Pittsburgh has absolutely slammed the door on the run so far this year. I expect the Bengals will still try, but they'll eventually have to turn to an inconsistent Palmer to try to get them to score. This should stay a low scoring affair, with both teams struggling to get in the end zone and coming away with a lot of field goals. I expect a 20-16 type of game at the highest.

• Chicago Bears -2

It took me a while to warm up to this game, but I simply cannot ignore all of the injuries plaguing the Seahawks right now. Hasselbeck is unlikely to play, and Wallace should struggle against a Bears defense that has been effective against the pass so far (6th in the league in yards per pass attempt). The Seahawks also will likely struggle running the ball, setting them up in must throw situations and playing into the Bears' hands. On offense, I expect the Bears to work hard to get the RB Matt Forte going, who has been shut down thus far. Against a Seattle defense that has injury problems and got shredded last week by the 49ers, I wouldn't be surprised to see success out of Forte finally. Once the run game is established, the Bears can let Cutler loose and put it away. Bears should take this one by a touchdown.

• Denver Broncos -1
• Denver/Oakland UNDER 36.5

Denver finds themselves in a position to start 3-0, something few could have predicted. Although the Raiders' defense has looked good so far this year, their offense has been absolutely abysmal. Russel has played very inconsistent, seeming to wake up for only the fourth quarter each week. Meanwhile, despite keeping the Chiefs to very few points last week, Oakland got dominated in total yardage. Their defense managed to do the job and get the Chiefs off the field, but I think that the Broncos are a team much more equipped to take advantage of scoring opportunities that come their way. Also, despite Oakland's struggle to rack up yards thus far, they've done a great job turning the yards into points. This however meets with the strength of the Denver defense, who is best in the league right now at keeping yardage from being converted into points. The Raiders' offense isn't much better than the Browns' right now, and Denver should have no problem keeping Oakland's point total in single digits. I see Denver scoring anywhere from 14-24 points, while Oakland struggles to find the right side of 10.

• Houston Texans -3.5
• Houston/Jacksonville OVER 47

I've flip flopped on this game all week, unable to decide if I wanted to make it a play or not. Houston seems to have the clear advantage here, and the line seems like it should be more in the neighborhood of Houston -7. However, we find ourselves facing a line of just 3.5 points, and we must wonder if we're walking into a trap with this one. I don't necessarily believe that Vegas sets lines with the purpose of trapping people, I think we just create the traps ourselves. Right now everyone is impressed with Houston's gutty come from behind win, with thoughts of Schaub's 4 touchdowns still fresh in their minds. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had an underwhelming effort against Arizona, and got thrown all over for the second game in a row. If I had to guess why this line was so low, I'd assume that Vegas expects it to be a high scoring affair with MJD having a monster day. Houston's pass and run defense are absolutely abysmal, giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt, and 6.32 yards per rush attempt. Not all of those rushing numbers are because of Chris Johnson either, the Jets tore them up on the ground in Week 1 as well.

This game reminds me of the Week 1 Saints vs. Lions game, I have a very similar feeling on it. I'm confident that the points will be there on the Texans' end, if they fell short of 27 I'd be very surprised, they may even go over that. On the Jacksonville end, we know that they're going against a Texans' defense that has been very bad lately, and the opportunity for them to put up points sure appears to be there. If this game goes over, it'll be because Jacksonville did scored on their end and potentially covered. If it goes under, it's probably because the Texans' defense bore down and they blew out the Jags. I think this is another great situation where worst case scenario has us eating a little juice and going 1-1, with a very good possibility of the total going over and the Texans covering anyways, giving us a 2-0 record for this game.

I may come back with a Monday Night Football play, I'm strongly considering it right now. If I do make a play I'll send out an email Monday afternoon. Good luck this week guys, hopefully we find ourselves with a profit for a third week in a row!

[strictlywinners]

Ur locked in kid, keep killing it. I'm against you on a few of the sides today. Love the Lions and all your totals, though

[MrMonkey]

Good luck Kroy with the rest of your day! The Houston ending was unreal! What can you do?

[bombCanada]

You're a wildman, Kroy. Good work again.

[kroyrunner89]

Thanks guys! Houston was just a poor play, misread that one. Rough ending for the Cinci game, but sometimes that's how it'll go. Makes up for the Green Bay win in Week 1. Like I said, all evens out in the end.

[Dana4U]

You're killing the books! Keep up the great work and analysis!