Hi, it's nice to be here. I guess a list of my picks for this week is the best way to start. I can't believe how many games I'm betting this weekend but you take them as you find them, right ?
I vary my stakes from 1-10 points.
SEATTLE +2 @ San Francisco
The 49ers are quickly becoming a media-darling team, what in UK racing parlance is known as 'a talking horse'. Talking horses are often worth opposing, especially against strong oposition looking to return to divisional pre-eminence after a nightmarish, injury-destroyed season. Seattle will slap San Francisco down.
6 point bet
Oakland @ Kansas City UNDER 38 points
I just can't see this game being anything other than a runrunrun-fest. The total has surprisingly moved up half a point since I got on, which I assume must be due to the increased likelihood of Matt Cassell playing. I like Cassell but I don't think whoever plays QB for KC is going to make much difference to the overall nature of this game. FWIW thunderstorms are predicted in the PM.
5 point bet
CAROLINA +6.5 @ Atlanta
One reason I am picking against Atlanta is that their win over Miami was nothing special. +4 turnovers but only a 12 point win, fewer yards per play than Miami, only 2.5 yards per rush, three routine kicks missed. Besides that, I don't see Jake Del'Homme (sp?) being put under the same pressure this week as last by either this opposition, or his own team's gameplan. Coming off a horrible home loss Carolina can be expected to play this division game very tough, plenty of hard running, and I think they have a fair chance of winning the game.
4 point bet
DALLAS -2.5 over NYG
The Giants lost only three of their eighteen fumbles last season. They're doubtless a very good team, but that kind of luck doesn't last forever and more importantly, it helps inflate a team's rep a little. I'm not completely sold on Dallas after the way they gave up ground yards last week, but I certainly take the home advantage and a small handicap here.
4 point bet
JACKSONVILLE -3 over Arizona
For various reasons, I expect the Jags to bounce back strongly from last season's performance. I don't much like the Cardinals chances on this long non-conference trip.
3 point bet
TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston
It really goes against the grain for me to bet on a big favourite after just one week of the season. Teams who've had a big wake-up call in a home loss, a la Houston, can be dangerous. However, the Titans have had a long week, are a fearsome team and want this division win very badly. The Texans couldn't cope with the Jets defense last week, and this looks like a deja vu defeat for them.
3 point bet
Minnesota @ Detroit UNDER 46.5
I'm struggling to come up with many likely scenarios in which this game produces a ton of points. Perhaps the Lions rookie QB throws a couple of interceptions inside his own half, perhaps there's a huge punt return. But on balance the most likely outcome seems to be a trench war, slowly and inexorably won by the Vikings, who then close out the clock and the game. Caveat: I suck at picking over/unders.
3 point bet
WASHINGTON -9.5 over St. Louis
I can't believe I just typed that out, let alone actually have put money on it already. Never before have I supported a near ten-point favourite. However, I think Washington bear comparison in many ways with Seattle on both sides of the ball and the Rams lost 28-nothing at Seattle despite being plus two on turnovers. Furthermore you'd need to use a cluster of super-computers to find two worse back-to-back road trips for St Louis than Washington State followed by Washington DC.
2 point bet
CINCINNATI +8.5 @ Green Bay
You'd think backing the Bengals last week would have scarred me, wouldn't you? Well I'm hacked off to have missed the 9 points they were being given earlier in the week, but I still think 8.5 is generous. The Packers defense is being talked about in hushed, reverent tones after one regular season game (no, pre-season doesn't count, at all) against an interception-prone QB making his first start with a new team. Call me crazy but I still believe Carson, Chad and co can put up points here and be in the hunt to win this game as it enters the last five minutes.
2 point bet
Games I agonised over but have so far left alone: Tampa +5 at Buffalo, Bills performance at New England being over-rated, but Tampa coverage breakdowns v Dallas make me fear big plays from Owens/Evans.... Indy -3 at Miami, I'm opposing Miami all year but my sportsbook has shaved the odds on Indy. I still might play it small..... SD -3 over Baltimore... rash of injuries at SD worries me just enough to hang fire, although I hate the Ravens making such a trip off an easy(-ier than it appeared) win over weak opposition....
Feedback/"you're nuts" comments welcomed.......
I vary my stakes from 1-10 points.
SEATTLE +2 @ San Francisco
The 49ers are quickly becoming a media-darling team, what in UK racing parlance is known as 'a talking horse'. Talking horses are often worth opposing, especially against strong oposition looking to return to divisional pre-eminence after a nightmarish, injury-destroyed season. Seattle will slap San Francisco down.
6 point bet
Oakland @ Kansas City UNDER 38 points
I just can't see this game being anything other than a runrunrun-fest. The total has surprisingly moved up half a point since I got on, which I assume must be due to the increased likelihood of Matt Cassell playing. I like Cassell but I don't think whoever plays QB for KC is going to make much difference to the overall nature of this game. FWIW thunderstorms are predicted in the PM.
5 point bet
CAROLINA +6.5 @ Atlanta
One reason I am picking against Atlanta is that their win over Miami was nothing special. +4 turnovers but only a 12 point win, fewer yards per play than Miami, only 2.5 yards per rush, three routine kicks missed. Besides that, I don't see Jake Del'Homme (sp?) being put under the same pressure this week as last by either this opposition, or his own team's gameplan. Coming off a horrible home loss Carolina can be expected to play this division game very tough, plenty of hard running, and I think they have a fair chance of winning the game.
4 point bet
DALLAS -2.5 over NYG
The Giants lost only three of their eighteen fumbles last season. They're doubtless a very good team, but that kind of luck doesn't last forever and more importantly, it helps inflate a team's rep a little. I'm not completely sold on Dallas after the way they gave up ground yards last week, but I certainly take the home advantage and a small handicap here.
4 point bet
JACKSONVILLE -3 over Arizona
For various reasons, I expect the Jags to bounce back strongly from last season's performance. I don't much like the Cardinals chances on this long non-conference trip.
3 point bet
TENNESSEE -6.5 over Houston
It really goes against the grain for me to bet on a big favourite after just one week of the season. Teams who've had a big wake-up call in a home loss, a la Houston, can be dangerous. However, the Titans have had a long week, are a fearsome team and want this division win very badly. The Texans couldn't cope with the Jets defense last week, and this looks like a deja vu defeat for them.
3 point bet
Minnesota @ Detroit UNDER 46.5
I'm struggling to come up with many likely scenarios in which this game produces a ton of points. Perhaps the Lions rookie QB throws a couple of interceptions inside his own half, perhaps there's a huge punt return. But on balance the most likely outcome seems to be a trench war, slowly and inexorably won by the Vikings, who then close out the clock and the game. Caveat: I suck at picking over/unders.
3 point bet
WASHINGTON -9.5 over St. Louis
I can't believe I just typed that out, let alone actually have put money on it already. Never before have I supported a near ten-point favourite. However, I think Washington bear comparison in many ways with Seattle on both sides of the ball and the Rams lost 28-nothing at Seattle despite being plus two on turnovers. Furthermore you'd need to use a cluster of super-computers to find two worse back-to-back road trips for St Louis than Washington State followed by Washington DC.
2 point bet
CINCINNATI +8.5 @ Green Bay
You'd think backing the Bengals last week would have scarred me, wouldn't you? Well I'm hacked off to have missed the 9 points they were being given earlier in the week, but I still think 8.5 is generous. The Packers defense is being talked about in hushed, reverent tones after one regular season game (no, pre-season doesn't count, at all) against an interception-prone QB making his first start with a new team. Call me crazy but I still believe Carson, Chad and co can put up points here and be in the hunt to win this game as it enters the last five minutes.
2 point bet
Games I agonised over but have so far left alone: Tampa +5 at Buffalo, Bills performance at New England being over-rated, but Tampa coverage breakdowns v Dallas make me fear big plays from Owens/Evans.... Indy -3 at Miami, I'm opposing Miami all year but my sportsbook has shaved the odds on Indy. I still might play it small..... SD -3 over Baltimore... rash of injuries at SD worries me just enough to hang fire, although I hate the Ravens making such a trip off an easy(-ier than it appeared) win over weak opposition....
Feedback/"you're nuts" comments welcomed.......
