[JR007]

Professional wagerers are acutely aware of public tendencies whenever a playoff contender is facing a non-contender in the final weeks of an NFL season. That influenced how the sharps decided to bet Thursday Night’s nationally televised game between AFC Wildcard hopeful Cincinnati and NFC also-ran Philadelphia.

CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA
Opening Line: Cincinnati by 3, total of 46
Current Line: Cincinnati by 4, total of 44.5
You can see that the game opened right on the key number of three. Sharps knew that the public was going to prefer the team in the “must win” situation at the cheap price. Even sharps who didn’t have a handicapping preference took early position on the Bengals knowing the line would move. The sharp action by itself pushed the line to -4…where the public will take it’s shots today.
*Sharps who don’t really have a preference will buy back on Philadelphia at what they perceive the apex to be. Maybe that will be +4.5 or better. Maybe we won’t nudge off the four during the day because the public is more excited about betting some of the big Sunday matchups. Even with Cincinnati -3 and Philadelphia +4, the sharps are in position for a 10-1 return if the game lands exactly on Cincinnati by 3 (24-21 for example) or 4 (24-20 would work).
Imagine $100 bets both ways, remembering that losing bets have to play an extra 10% vigorish.
110 to win 100 on Cincinnati -3
110 to win 100 on Philadelphia +4 (or better)
You can’t possible lose BOTH of those bets because they overlap. The most likely scenario is that you lose $10. You win $100 if the road favorite lands on 3 or 4…in a game where the market things that’s a fairly reasonable occurrence. One key that separates sharps from squares is that sharps know how to win even if they don’t have an opinion!
*Sharps who liked Cincinnati at -3 will probably just stand pat. Though, they could buy back for a smaller amount to adjust their risk/reward outlook. Many sharps believe they profit more in the long run by “beating the closer” than by playing for sides and middles.
*Sharps who liked Philadelphia had no reason to bet early. They’ll wait to see what the public does, and try to time things right to get the best possible number on the Eagles.
From our discussions with sources, this isn’t a game that’s inspiring a lot of interest from sharps beyond just doing business. Position-taking and limited Cincy interest only moved the line a point after all. Cincinnati has played a weak schedule, and many not be ready to coast to a road win. Philadelphia has covered its last two under Nick Foles but still lacks the sense of urgency that Cincinnati will bring to the field.
You can see that the totals bettors preferred the Under. That’s not weather related from what we’re hearing. The math guys say that Cincinnati is more likely to play conservatively, running clock if they get a lead. The Over/Under would have dropped a lot more if weather had been an issue.

[ChiLLx]

Good stuff, thanks for sharing. Always like reading these.